Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd
Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Auto Components
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No equity dilution is planned in the near term, as confirmed by Naresh Jalan. The company intends to deploy operational cash prudently for capacity augmentation and new investments without raising equity.
- The company aims to reduce debt but is comfortable maintaining some debt, targeting a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1:1 by FY '25 end, rather than becoming a net zero debt company.
- Capex guidance for FY '24 stands at INR 300-350 Crores, funded through internal cash flows, with no immediate plans for equity fundraising.
- For joint ventures like the railway project, equity contribution will be 30% of project cost, contributed over three years, but no mention of fresh equity issuance linked to this.
- Interest rates are expected to remain stable or slightly decrease; no mention of new debt fundraising plans.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- FY '24 capex guidance: INR 300 Crores to INR 350 Crores (excluding railway projects).
- Railway project (TWL consortium) investment: Project cost around INR 1,200 Crores to INR 1,400 Crores; 30% equity contribution spread over three years.
- Acquisition investments (e.g., JMT, ACIL) pending NCLT approval; no specific figures disclosed yet.
- Cold forging facility to start operations in FY '25 with firm order book already secured; focused on EV and passenger vehicles (PVs).
- New wheel segment plant being established with expectations to be EBITDA positive within two years; five-year payback targeted.
- Multitech Auto acquisition finalized; expected to add significant revenue and improve margins over two years.
- Strategic focus on EV platforms (motors, controllers, differential, e-axle), consolidating presence in emerging electric vehicle market.
- No equity dilution planned; capex to be funded primarily through operational cash flows and prudent debt management.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- The company targets at least 15% to 20% minimum volume growth annually for the next three to four years.
- Confident of achieving and potentially exceeding the 15%-20% volume growth guidance for the full year and beyond.
- Expects revenue contributions from new acquisitions and product lines, such as the railway segment growing to 4%-4.5% of total revenue this year.
- The warm forging segment is anticipated to contribute high margins starting Q3 or Q4 of this year and ramp up to full utilization by next year.
- Cold forging capacity to commence revenue generation from FY '25, catering entirely to EV and passenger vehicle segments.
- The company plans to consolidate acquisitions like Multitech by Q2 and expects new orders to add ~40% revenue from last year's wins starting Q2.
- Export and domestic markets expected to maintain a 60:40 revenue mix, both showing strong demand trends.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company expects a minimum volume growth of 15% to 20% annually for the next 3-4 years, driven by both domestic and export markets.
- EBITDA margin improvements are anticipated, especially from new high-margin segments like warm and cold forging and railway JV, with a base margin around 22%.
- The new wheel segment plant is expected to become EBITDA positive within two years and deliver a five-year payback on investment.
- Acquisitions like Multitech are projected to increase revenue by INR 500-600 Crores over two years, with margin improvement potential of 200-250 bps.
- Warm forging and differential parts businesses are expected to contribute to higher margins starting from Q3-Q4 FY24.
- The company plans to maintain and improve operating margins with continuous capacity additions and product diversification.
- Overall, net profit after tax grew 63% YoY in Q1 FY24, supported also by a lower tax rate, indicating strong profit growth trajectory.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company garnered order wins of about INR 770 Crores (INR 7.7 billion) in FY '23.
- Approximately 40% of last year's order wins are expected to commence contributing to revenue from Q2 FY '24 onward.
- New orders already started kicking in during the last quarter, aiding better export performance.
- Cold forging capacity has a complete sold-out order book for seven years, with operations starting in Q1 FY '25.
- No explicit current orderbook value is provided beyond these details, but visibility shows significant ramp-up in order execution in FY '24 and FY '25.
- Multitech acquisition expected to add INR 5 billion to 6 billion of additional revenue in the first two years post-acquisition, with consolidation starting by Q2 FY '24.
