Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd

Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Full-year capex for FY '25 is guided at around INR 500 Crores for Ramkrishna Forgings standalone. - Additional investment in subsidiaries is expected to be about INR 135 Crores. - Investment in the Ramkrishna Titagarh joint venture project is around INR 100 Crores. - No changes have been made to these investment plans — the company confirms to continue with this guidance. - The total project cost for the Ramkrishna Titagarh joint venture has increased from an earlier estimate of INR 1,250-1,300 Crores to around INR 1,800 Crores currently. - Acquired Resortes Libertad in Mexico to establish a legal entity quickly for starting manufacturing operations in Mexico, indicating a strategic move for geographic expansion. - Subsidiaries like Ramkrishna Casting Solutions (previously JMT Auto) have started operations and continue to ramp up.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Ramkrishna Forgings expects volume growth of 15% to 20% for FY '25, driven by strong order book visibility and new order wins. - Revenue growth is guided to be in line with volume growth, considering raw material price pass-through. - Export revenue has seen improvement due to new product mix and customer additions, with realizations expected to remain stable. - Domestic revenue showed a 3% decline due to raw material price decreases and lower offtake, but is expected to stabilize. - Multitech Auto is expected to grow 15% to 20% with EBITDA margin improvement of 100 to 200 basis points. - The ramp-up of subsidiaries like Ramkrishna Casting Solutions Limited (formerly JMT Auto), ACIL, and Multitech Auto is progressing, contributing to margin expansion and revenue growth. - The Ramkrishna Titagarh joint venture project is on track for first production in FY '26, expected to add to future revenues.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Revenue growth guidance for FY '25 is 15% to 20% in volume terms. - EBITDA margin expected to improve by 100 to 200 basis points at Multitech Auto subsidiary. - Consolidated EBITDA margin stands around 23% and management is confident of sustaining 23%+ margins going forward. - Subsidiaries, including Multitech, ACIL, and Ramkrishna Casting Solutions, are ramping up operations contributing to margin improvements. - New order inflows totaling INR 1,679 Crores provide strong revenue visibility over next 3-4 years. - Ramkrishna Titagarh JV project expected to start production by FY '26 end, adding to future revenues. - Net profit after tax for Q1 FY '25 was INR 73.1 Crores; growth expected with operational efficiencies and order ramp-up. - Management optimistic about continuing operational efficiencies and cost management to drive profits higher.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current order inflow for Q1 FY '25 is approximately INR 1,679 Crores. - Breakdown by region and segment: - North America: INR 526 Crores (CV: INR 201 Crores, LV: INR 109 Crores, EV: INR 16 Crores, Non-auto: INR 200 Crores) - Europe: INR 287 Crores (mostly CV, EV ~1%) - India: INR 442 Crores (CV: INR 362 Crores, Non-auto: INR 80 Crores) - Railway segment: INR 284 Crores (undercarriage and other items) - Rest of the world: INR 140 Crores (CV market) - Total order book stands at over INR 1,200 Crores executable over 4 years. - Expected annual executable order value: approximately INR 300+ Crores starting next year. - Orders primarily spread across automotive CV, LV, EV segments, non-auto sectors, and railways.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- As of Q1 FY'25, there is no indication of new fundraising through debt or equity. - Gross and net debt increased by approximately INR 100 Crores on a consolidated basis due to investments in subsidiaries. - Debt levels are expected to remain at the FY'24 levels by the end of FY'25, with no increase planned. - Capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged: about INR 500 Crores for Ramkrishna Forgings standalone, INR 135 Crores for subsidiaries, and around INR 100 Crores investment in the Ramkrishna Titagarh JV project. - No mention of fresh equity fundraising or debt issuance plans during the call. - The company has substantial unutilized bank lines and prefers to keep these rather than holding large cash balances on its books.