Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd

- Capex for next year (FY '27) will be negligible, less than Rs. 100 crores. - Current expansion includes approximately 400,000 tonnes of capacity between forgings and castings. - Casting facility with 45,000 tonnes capacity is almost fully sold out and expected to have 80-85% utilization next year. - Trial runs for the railway wheels JV to start in January '26, with commercial production beginning in March '26. - No additional equipment imports or capex planned for standalone operations as current capex is complete. - The company is focused on optimizing capacity utilization and scaling up railway and domestic market demands. - Promoter infusing Rs. 150 crores and expected Rs. 600 crores debt reduction by March '26 indicating strategic financial management alongside capex completion.

- Railway wheels JV expected to reach 80-85% utilization by FY '28, generating revenue of Rs. 1,600-1,700 crore with 17-18% EBITDA margins. - FY '27 utilization for railway wheels JV targeted at around 30% (~40,000 wheels). - Current capacity peak utilization aimed for 85%, with revenue potential between Rs. 6,200-6,500 crore by end of CY '27, subject to commodity pricing. - Blended EBITDA margins expected to stabilize at 17-18% with the current casting-forging mix; aspirational goal to surpass 20% margins over time. - Order book of Rs. 6,000-7,000 crore anticipated to generate Rs. 1,000 crore+ revenue annually starting FY '28. - Domestic market expected to grow sharply post-GST cut, supporting better than market growth. - Export sales expected to recover with new customer wins in North America and Europe from FY '27 onwards. - New production trials for railway wheels to start Jan '26; commercial production from March '26.

- The company aims for a revenue of Rs. 1,600-1,700 crore from the railway wheels JV by FY '28 with EBITDA margins of 17%-18%. - Peak utilization for FY '28 at 80%-85% is expected, while FY '27 utilization is targeted at around 30%. - With current capacities and order wins, revenue could reach Rs. 6,200-6,500 crore by end of CY '27, depending on commodity prices. - Margins on a blended basis (casting + forging) are expected to be 17%-18%, improving from recent lows, but full return to 20%+ margins is projected in a few quarters or by next year. - The large order book (~Rs. 6,000-7,000 crore), especially from Europe and North America, is expected to drive revenues starting FY '27, with full ramp-up by FY '28. - Debt reduction of Rs. 500-600 crore by March '26 and rising utilization emphasize improving profitability. - Management expects surprising upside in Q3 and Q4 EBITDA margins as the business stabilizes post disruptions.

- Over the last 6 quarters, Ramkrishna Forgings has received new orders totaling approximately Rs. 6,000 to Rs. 7,000 crores, with a program life of 4 to 5 years. - These orders include Rs. 1,116 crores from Q2 FY'26 alone, excluding railway orders. - Of the Q2 FY'26 order wins, 69% came from automotive (Rs. 777 crores), 27% from railways (Rs. 296 crores), and 4% from non-auto sectors (Rs. 43 crores). - Orders from Europe and North America constitute significant order wins, reflecting a diversification strategy. - Orders are expected to start generating revenues from FY'27 onwards, reaching full production by FY'28. - Revenue from these orders in FY'28 is estimated safely above Rs. 1,000 crores. - Railway segment orders include Rs. 200 crores for castings and additional orders for fully assembled bogey frames. - The railway wheels JV expects to produce around 40,000 wheels in FY'27 (about 30% utilization), ramping up to 80-85% utilization by FY'28, with estimated revenues of Rs. 1,600 to Rs. 1,700 crores.

- The company has allotted 9,75,000 Warrants to the promoter entity with a partial upfront payment of Rs. 51.19 crores; the balance will be paid before March '26. - The Board approved issuing 34,00,000 Warrants at Rs. 588 per share, raising additional funds. - Promoters have pledged shares worth Rs. 200 crores with Tata Capital to fill up the warrants; no pledging to Jio Finance. - Promoter is expected to infuse Rs. 150 crores. - Debt level increased to over Rs. 2,500 crores due to capex and muted profits; expected to reduce by Rs. 500-600 crores by March '26 with improved operating leverage and promoter infusion. - No indications of fresh major debt raising; focus is on utilizing current capacity and managing financials through promoter infusion and controlled capex.