Raymond Ltd

Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Future growth in real estate will be predominantly through asset-light Joint Development Agreements (JDAs); minimal outright land purchases expected unless very attractive opportunities arise. - Peak investment for a typical INR2,000 crore project is estimated at INR300-350 crores, utilized productively in ongoing and upcoming projects. - Real estate business currently has cash of ~INR500 crores supporting its journey with no significant capital raising expected in the next two years. - Engineering business aims to add capacity incrementally with smaller capex to double revenues over the next five years, focusing on higher-value aerospace and defense components and assemblies. - Aerospace and defense subsidiary demerger expected by March 31, 2025, facilitating focused investment and growth. - No plan for JK Files IPO; engineering business consolidating via demergers under Raymond Limited to streamline investments. - Overall capex focused on operational efficiency, product mix enhancement, and expanding engineering capacity with innovation.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Real estate business expects revenue potential of INR32,000 crores over 7-8 years, including Thane land (INR25,000 crores) and four JDAs (INR7,000 crores). - Annual real estate revenue potential estimated at INR3,500-4,000 crores, with price increases expected over the next 7-8 years. - Real estate sales strong with 65% inventory sold in Thane and rapid sales in Bandra (100 apartments in 30 days). - Engineering business aims to double revenue from current INR1,800 crores over next 4-5 years, driven by aerospace, defense, auto components, and consumables segments. - Aerospace-defense segment growing rapidly at 25%-30% year-on-year. - Continued expansion through new projects in real estate and capacity additions in engineering machining. - Robust order book and positive outlook in aerospace and defense sectors supporting faster growth and improved margins.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Engineering business is expected to double revenues over the next 4-5 years, driven by aerospace, defense, auto components, and engineering consumables (Page 6). - Aerospace and defense segment is growing rapidly at 25%-30% year-on-year with higher margins, enabling faster EBITDA growth (Page 6). - Engineering business currently has a run rate of INR300 crores with 25%-27% EBITDA margin; expects significant growth in 2-3 years (Page 18, Page 15). - Real estate business (including Thane land and JDA projects) has potential revenues of INR32,000 crores over 7-8 years with 24%-25% EBITDA margin and 25% IRR (Page 8, Page 12). - Real estate projected to generate INR4,000 crores annual revenue in 3-5 years (Page 8). - Lifestyle business will operate as a debt-free entity with clear segment reporting improving financial clarity (Page 14). - Overall, strategic initiatives and demergers aim to unlock significant shareholder value and improve operational focus (Page 4).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The overall engineering business is currently in the range of INR1,800 to INR1,900 crores in turnover. - The engineering segment includes aerospace-defense (growing at 25%-30% YoY), auto components (INR1,200 crores, growing at 10%-15%), and engineering consumables (INR500 crores, growing at 8%-12%). - No specific outstanding order book numbers mentioned, but the business has good visibility. - Aerospace-defense and auto segments show strong growth potential, expected to double revenues in 4-5 years. - Real estate has a strong revenue potential pipeline with INR32,000 crores GDV spread over 7-8 years, INR7,000 crores JDA projects recently signed. - Real estate pre-sales stand at INR2,300 crores with 6 million sq. ft. under construction. - Focus is on JDA models for real estate with careful project evaluation to ensure 25% IRR target.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Currently, no significant capital raising is expected for at least the next two years due to strong cash flow visibility from existing projects and adequate cash reserves (INR500+ crores). - The real estate business is focusing predominantly on Joint Development Agreements (JDA), which are asset-light and require limited upfront investment. - Peak investment per project is typically INR300-350 crores, which gets replenished as projects launch and progress. - The company prefers to have sufficient cash surplus to meet exigencies and avoid project delays. - While project debt is a possibility for certain costs, the company emphasizes securing all approvals upfront to avoid stopping projects mid-way. - Equity fundraising or debt raising may be considered in the future if the business scale or market conditions require, but no immediate plans have been indicated.