Repco Home Finance Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Finance

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: No informationrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company is on a growth path and confident of reaching previous high levels in coming years. - Disbursement guidance for FY2025 is between INR3,600 to INR3,800 crores, expecting around 30% growth in the second half compared to the first half. - New sales hires (around 170 foot-on-street salespeople plus branch heads) and expanded sourcing channels (corporate DSAs, connectors) aim to boost sales. - Overall sales team strength may increase by 20-30 employees by year-end. - Increasing use of DSAs and connectors expected to raise their share of disbursements from about 30% to nearly 40% by year-end. - Historically, the second half exhibits better sales activity (Q3 and Q4 stronger than H1). - The target AUM is INR15,000 crores, though slight shortfall (INR100-200 crores) is possible due to repayments. - Efforts to reduce repayments via customer engagement and rate reductions are underway to support growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects continued growth momentum in its business parameters and is positive about meeting its guidance numbers for FY25. - Disbursements are targeted between INR 3,600 to INR 3,800 crores, with recruitment of experienced sales personnel to boost growth in H2 FY25. - AUM growth may slightly fall short of the INR 15,000 crores target by INR 100-200 crores due to elevated repayments and BTOuts, but inorganic growth via book purchase or DA transactions could bridge the gap. - Profitability remains strong with Q2 FY25 PAT of INR 113 crores (15% YoY growth), ROA at 3.3%, and ROE at 16%. - The company maintains a spread of 3.4% and NIM of 5.1%, though slightly lower than the previous year. - Cost-to-income ratio is stable; non-interest income is benefiting from increased insurance commission. - Focus on reducing Stage 2 overdues and improving collections with additional manpower is expected to improve operating earnings.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The technically written-off assets amount to approximately INR100 crores currently. - The total write-off for the last 12 months is INR13 crores, all technical write-offs. - Actual write-offs historically are less than INR15-20 crores. - The company has issued around 1,700 demand notices in the current half-year, with 500 auction notices and 447 possession notices. - Auctioning of Stage 3 NPA accounts is an ongoing activity, with a mega auction planned for December. - Repayments in the last year have increased to around INR200 crores per month, up from INR150 crores roughly a year ago. - Sales and collection teams have been increased for better recovery and business growth. - The company expects to reach around INR15,000 crores AUM by FY25, but may fall short by INR100-200 crores if current repayment trends continue. - Disbursement target for FY25 is around INR3,600 to INR3,800 crores.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company is actively approaching the National Housing Bank (NHB) for loans, with proposals currently in the pipeline, implying potential new borrowing through NHB loans during the current year. - They have approval from the AGM and the Board to tap the Non-Convertible Debenture (NCD) market and will consider raising funds through NCDs if market conditions are favorable. - There are no fixed plans for securitization currently; however, they remain open to possible Pass-Through Certificate (PTC) transactions if opportunities arise. - No specific equity fundraising plans were mentioned in the provided discussion.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- The company has invested approximately INR27 crores so far on new software, with Phase 1 (LLMS and EGL) stabilized and Phase 2 (support functions) in various stages of implementation and testing. - There is an ongoing plan to expand touchpoints, with an expected increase from 227 outlets (184 branches, 43 satellite centers, plus 2 asset recovery branches) to approximately 250 by March 2025. - No specific mention of future large-scale capex or strategic investments beyond branch expansion and technology upgrades. - The focus appears to be on organic growth through increasing branches and enhancing technology infrastructure rather than inorganic acquisitions or large capital expenditures at this stage.