Rico Auto Industries Ltd

Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Auto Components

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Currently, there is no plan for new fundraising through debt or equity. (Page 19) - The company is focusing on reducing existing debt and expects debt levels to come down starting the end of the current year. (Pages 9, 12, 17) - The capex for the next fiscal year is expected to be around INR 50-55 crores, significantly lower than the previous year, reducing the need for incremental funding. (Pages 9, 11, 17) - Management is actively seeking a large single investor for funding but prefers not to break up the amount. Discussions are ongoing with potential investors. (Page 7) - No new loans are currently planned except for one small LC of about INR 11-12 crores. (Page 17)
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY '23 capex was around INR 200 crores, primarily due to the Toyota project capitalization and merging of subsidiaries (p16-17). - FY '24 capex guidance is approximately INR 55 crores excluding dies; including dies, total capex expected is around INR 90-95 crores (p11, 14). - Dies investment (INR 35-40 crores) is regular for machine running; amortized and sometimes advances received from customers like Toyota and Renault (p11-14). - One new die-casting machine specific to AISIN project is arriving (p17). - No immediate large-scale investments planned; capex in FY '24 expected to be below depreciation (INR 110 crores) (p9-14). - Long-term land acquisition and possible plant shift in Gurgaon is under discussion but will take ~1.5 years (p9). - Future investment will start on receipt of confirmed orders, especially in defense and export segments (p15-16). - Overall, capex to be conservative and aligned with production and order inflows (p15-17).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company anticipates a revenue growth of around 15% to 16% for FY '24. - They expect both domestic and export markets to contribute similarly in percentage terms to growth, with domestic numbers being larger in absolute terms. - Visibility for FY '24 revenue is about INR 2,700 crores, with ambitions to exceed this and cross INR 2,800 crores. - Growth is expected in both two-wheeler and passenger vehicle segments. - Export markets are expected to improve further, especially if geopolitical issues like the Russia-Ukraine war resolve. - New orders, including around 53% from EV and hybrid segments, provide strong growth potential. - The company is optimistic about doubling EV order volumes as component availability improves. - Over 3-5 years, the company expects significant growth, potentially aiming to become a INR 5,000 crore revenue company before 5 years.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects to maintain or improve EBITDA and PBT levels going forward, with plans already in place to show better results in upcoming quarters. - Margins for FY24 are targeted to be at least at Q4 FY23 levels, with management indicating potential for quarter-on-quarter margin improvement. - EBITDA for FY24 is expected to be around INR 300 crores plus, supporting significant free cash flow and enabling debt reduction. - Net profit is anticipated to reach around INR 100 crores in the coming year, maintaining or improving margins from Q4 FY23. - Revenue growth guidance for FY24 is around 15%-16%, with domestic and export markets contributing similarly in percentage terms. - The company aims to achieve sustained growth driven by exports and domestic market expansion in two-wheeler and passenger vehicle segments. - Long term, there is optimism about achieving a INR 5,000 crores revenue company within 5 years, leveraging India's large population and EV market growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current confirmed order book peak program value: INR 1,900 crores per year (Page 6). - Of this, 53% of orders are for EVs, and the balance for IC engines, including wheels for motorcycles (Page 6). - Incremental new orders added in the last quarter: INR 300 crores (Page 6). - One significant BMW order secured with potential peak production value of almost INR 100 crores annually; other BMW orders are still pending (Page 19). - Defense orders are pending due to a lengthy tender and trial process; one order is already won, but others await retendering and approvals, with expected announcements in the coming quarters (Pages 13,15,19). - Total targeted sales for next year around INR 2,700 to 2,800 crores, indicating visible order inflows supporting 15-16% growth (Pages 6, 20).