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S H Kelkar & Company LtdQ2 FY23

S H Kelkar & Company Ltd Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 135P/E: 38.1Market Cap: ₹1.9K CrSector: Chemicals & Petrochemicals

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Overall revenue growth guidance is double-digit, targeting 12% to 15% CAGR, with potential for higher double-digit growth if markets grow well.
  • Flavours division expects underlying CAGR of 12% to 14% for the full year.
  • Fragrance business is expected to grow at around 9% to 10% topline and 12%+ bottom-line growth in Europe and India.
  • Volume growth: Fragrance volumes grew 6% QoQ; Flavour volumes flat overall but growing in India.
  • New product development drives Rs. 50-70 crore new business annually.
  • Approximately 15% growth in Flavours is expected largely from new businesses.
  • Growth in India business expected to be double-digit, reflecting macroeconomic conditions.
  • Expansion in global markets through local manufacturing (e.g., Indonesia plant) will support growth and client engagement.
  • The pipeline of new projects is in place and working well.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • The company expects double-digit top-line growth going forward, with India business growing in double digits and Europe and India fragrance businesses aiming for 12%+ bottom-line growth.
  • EBITDA margin improvement is anticipated, with target levels above 16%, supported by better pricing strategy and stable raw material costs.
  • Global Ingredient business, currently negative EBITDA, is expected to reach around +10% EBITDA post full backward integration by Q4 FY24.
  • Volume growth: Fragrance volume grew 6% QoQ; Flavours showed flat volume growth overall but with India volumes up and exports fluctuating seasonally.
  • The collaboration with a large global FMCG partner through an RFP has potential to generate Rs.100 crore annual revenue eventually, although timelines remain fluid due to delays.
  • The company is reviewing its 3-5 year plan but aims for mid-to-high double-digit growth in formulations/new markets, targeting around 20% CAGR in overall revenue over 3 to 5 years.

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Fundraise plans

  • No explicit mention of any current or planned new fundraising through debt or equity was made in the call.
  • The company discussed debt levels, mentioning a gross debt of Rs. 583 crore as of Q1 FY24, which increased due to higher sales and working capital needs.
  • The management indicated plans to reduce debt over the coming years through free cash flow generated from operations, but also noted increased working capital requirements due to aggressive growth plans.
  • There is no indication of raising new equity capital; the focus seems to be on internal cash flow management and working capital optimization.
  • In summary, the company aims to manage debt through operational cash flow without announcing any new fundraising at this time.

Order book

  • The company is engaged in an RFQ (Request for Quotation) process with a large global FMCG player.
  • The RFQ's expected annual commercial revenue is around Rs. 100 crore.
  • The total bid value for this RFQ is approximately Rs. 700-800 crore (7-8 times the Rs. 100 crore annual revenue).
  • The company expects to secure about one-eighth to one-tenth of this total bid value.
  • Commercial orders from this RFQ are expected to start coming from Q4 FY24 or Q1 FY25.
  • Some trial commercializations may occur in Q3 FY24.
  • The timeline is fluid, affected by client-side delays and testing phases.
  • No new RFQs mentioned beyond this; ongoing work continues to reflect expenses in the current quarters.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Indonesia plant CAPEX: US $4 million to $5 million (already communicated last year, to be operational soon).
  • Upgradation investments for Flavour and Nutrition facilities: Relatively small, about Rs. 14-15 crore in total for all plants.
  • Backward integration in Global Ingredients: No large CAPEX by the company; it's done mainly at the vendor's end through a tolling model; only minor CAPEX for storages and related infrastructure.
  • Plans to upgrade nutrition and baby care plants to meet global standards underway to enable catering to larger global customers.
  • Capacity utilization improvements: Europe operations targeting over 85% utilization; Indian subsidiary has capacity headroom (~45% utilization), to support growth without major expansions.
  • No current expansion planned in the European subsidiary; future growth leveraging capacities in India and Indonesia.

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