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S H Kelkar & Company LtdQ3 FY23

S H Kelkar & Company Ltd Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 135P/E: 38.1Market Cap: ₹1.9K CrSector: Chemicals & Petrochemicals

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

No

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

2 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Management expects a **12% medium-term CAGR growth** in revenue, with confidence in sustaining this trend (Page 6).
  • Volume growth is projected to be **double-digit**, driven by market share gains, especially from new global MNC clients and large corporates (Pages 14, 15).
  • The Fragrance segment is expected to grow at over **12% CAGR**, while the Flavour segment targets around **15% CAGR growth** (Page 10).
  • Growth is supported by a mix of new and existing products, with new products contributing around 3-6% to revenues (Page 5).
  • Export business remains seasonal and uncertain short-term but expected to recover long-term (Page 10).
  • The company sees **upside risk** beyond the 12% growth guidance due to ongoing RFQs and new customer acquisitions (Page 10).
  • Strategic efforts via backward integration and new product launches will aid sustainable volume and revenue growth.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • The company is confident of sustaining double-digit revenue growth, targeting around 12% medium-term growth (Page 6).
  • EBITDA margins are expected to remain stable with potential to improve if raw material prices decline; current margin is about 16.7% (Pages 8-9).
  • Volume growth is a major driver, with existing clients growing at 6-7% plus new product introductions contributing additional growth (Page 8).
  • European operations aim for bottom-line improvement even with high capacity utilization (above 85%) (Page 2).
  • Backward integration in the Global Ingredients segment is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven post Q4 FY24, enhancing profitability (Page 6).
  • Overall, the focus is on volume growth, market share gains, and synergy realization post acquisitions to drive earnings growth forward (Pages 2, 12).

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Fundraise plans

No
  • There are no immediate plans to repay the debt as of now.
  • Current operations are generating free cash flow, which is progressively reducing debt.
  • Recent investments have been concluded in the Indonesia plant and the Holland Aromatics acquisition.
  • No large deployments or new investments are foreseen in the next couple of quarters.
  • Debt levels are expected to start coming down after this period.
  • The company plans to maintain net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2x as a priority.
  • There is no mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the near term.

Order book

Yes
  • The RFQ (Request for Quotation) position remains unchanged from last quarter; it is still a work in progress with no significant updates or finalizations yet.
  • Kedar Vaze mentioned there is no single large ticket RFQ; instead, finalizations are happening on various timelines across multiple subparts.
  • Visibility on RFQ finalization for FY25 is not complete; more time is needed before conclusions can be drawn.
  • Despite RFQ uncertainty, the company is confident about sustaining double-digit revenue growth (around 12%) in the medium term, driven by existing and new products.
  • Orders have started coming in post destocking in international markets, with hopes to catch up on run rate before year-end, indicating improving order flow.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Recently concluded investments in the Indonesia plant and the acquisition of Holland Aromatics.
  • Indonesia factory is expected to commence by the end of the current financial year, enhancing capacity for Middle East and Southeast Asia markets.
  • No immediate plans for new capacity investment in Europe; will assess market conditions over the next year or two before deciding.
  • Plans to augment India capacity by supporting export business from the India plant, leveraging the new Indonesia facility.
  • Backward integration for Global Ingredients scheduled for completion in Q4 FY24, expected to improve supply chain resilience and cost competitiveness.
  • No large capital deployments anticipated in the next couple of quarters; operational cash flow used to reduce debt progressively.

How does S H Kelkar & Company Ltd rank vs peers in Chemicals & Petrochemicals?

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1S H Kelkar & Company Ltd
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