S H Kelkar & Company Ltd

Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Chemicals & Petrochemicals

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the transcript. - Current net debt is around Rs. 540-550 crore, with a potential peak up to Rs. 600-620 crore due to working capital and inventory replenishment. - No additional CAPEX envisaged for Vashivali, with Rs. 80 crore planned for the new facility; insurance claim expected to offset losses and help reduce debt. - Management expects to reduce debt by about Rs. 100 crore once insurance money is received. - Cash flows are robust, and no structural increase in debt is expected; rise in debt is primarily a timing effect. - No explicit plans announced for raising fresh equity or new debt instruments at this time.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- New facility CAPEX is outlined at Rs. 80 crore; no additional CAPEX for Vashivali as it will be covered by insurance. - Plan to build a new facility with phased capacity: initially smaller than Vashivali's full capacity, with a later Phase II expansion. - Vashivali plant restoration preponed by 2 years; new plant to add capacity parallelly. - After completion of both factories, capacity is expected to increase by approximately 20% in Asia, and volume could potentially triple current levels. - New factory in Indonesia adds around 10% capacity, shifting some exports from India. - The CAPEX aims to meet robust growth and avoid capacity shortfall over the next few years. - CAPEX and operational cost savings (OPEX) from leased factories expected to offset each other. - Insurance claims for Vashivali fire-related losses will partially or fully cover financial impacts.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Global Ingredient business expected to grow 10%-12% year-on-year with a robust product pipeline. - Overall company revenue growth targeted at 12%-13% CAGR with sustained momentum. - Certain new businesses achieving high double-digit growth of 15%-18% annually. - Domestic FMCG fragrance segment anticipated to grow around 8% driven by new and startup brands. - Capacity expansions (Vashivali and new facility) to enable tripling current volumes in the medium term. - Global MNC client base growing steadily though slowly; engagements with large FMCG companies increasing. - Global RFQ business has almost doubled revenue since Q4, with potential to exceed USD 10 million annually. - Demand outlook for H2 FY25 remains strong with expected double-digit growth continuing in global accounts. - The China-plus trend and de-risking policies expected to structurally benefit the business over 3-5 years.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Global Ingredient business is expected to grow 10%-12% year-on-year with a sustainable profitable EBIT level, supported by new product pipeline and increased enquiries. - EBITDA margins projected around 17%-18% with sustained revenue growth of 12%-13% CAGR. - The company plans to achieve around 16.5%-17.5% EBITDA margin in Q1 with potential for improvement as insurance claims reimburse losses. - New and existing businesses are growing robustly, with some segments growing at 15%-18% annually, leading to overall average growth near 12%. - Earnings growth benefits expected from capacity expansions (tripling volume capacity), backward integration cost optimization, and enhanced supply chain efficiencies. - Despite short-term inventory losses and fire-related exceptional expenses, insurance claims are expected to mitigate impact, supporting stable operating profits moving forward. - Margin improvement anticipated due to better product mix, stable raw materials, and rationalized product offerings, thus yielding better profits and possible EPS growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The order backlog due to the fire incident is approximately Rs. 30 crore. - The Rs. 30 crore deferment from Q1 is expected to be recovered within the next quarter. - The Global Ingredient business has shown strong inquiry and project levels, with Q1 revenues almost double that of Q4 last year. - The overall business is seeing increased briefs and engagements indicating an improving order pipeline. - The company expects a sustained revenue run rate of over Rs. 500 crore per quarter going forward. - Enquiries and Request for Quotes (RFQs) have nearly doubled compared to last year, showing strong traction. - The management is optimistic about continued strong double-digit growth backed by significant progress with global MNC accounts and new product pipelines.