S H Kelkar & Company Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Chemicals & Petrochemicals

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There are no immediate plans to repay the debt as of now. - Current operations are generating free cash flow, which is progressively reducing debt. - Recent investments have been concluded in the Indonesia plant and the Holland Aromatics acquisition. - No large deployments or new investments are foreseen in the next couple of quarters. - Debt levels are expected to start coming down after this period. - The company plans to maintain net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2x as a priority. - There is no mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the near term.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Recently concluded investments in the Indonesia plant and the acquisition of Holland Aromatics. - Indonesia factory is expected to commence by the end of the current financial year, enhancing capacity for Middle East and Southeast Asia markets. - No immediate plans for new capacity investment in Europe; will assess market conditions over the next year or two before deciding. - Plans to augment India capacity by supporting export business from the India plant, leveraging the new Indonesia facility. - Backward integration for Global Ingredients scheduled for completion in Q4 FY24, expected to improve supply chain resilience and cost competitiveness. - No large capital deployments anticipated in the next couple of quarters; operational cash flow used to reduce debt progressively.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Management expects a **12% medium-term CAGR growth** in revenue, with confidence in sustaining this trend (Page 6). - Volume growth is projected to be **double-digit**, driven by market share gains, especially from new global MNC clients and large corporates (Pages 14, 15). - The Fragrance segment is expected to grow at over **12% CAGR**, while the Flavour segment targets around **15% CAGR growth** (Page 10). - Growth is supported by a mix of new and existing products, with new products contributing around 3-6% to revenues (Page 5). - Export business remains seasonal and uncertain short-term but expected to recover long-term (Page 10). - The company sees **upside risk** beyond the 12% growth guidance due to ongoing RFQs and new customer acquisitions (Page 10). - Strategic efforts via backward integration and new product launches will aid sustainable volume and revenue growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company is confident of sustaining double-digit revenue growth, targeting around 12% medium-term growth (Page 6). - EBITDA margins are expected to remain stable with potential to improve if raw material prices decline; current margin is about 16.7% (Pages 8-9). - Volume growth is a major driver, with existing clients growing at 6-7% plus new product introductions contributing additional growth (Page 8). - European operations aim for bottom-line improvement even with high capacity utilization (above 85%) (Page 2). - Backward integration in the Global Ingredients segment is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven post Q4 FY24, enhancing profitability (Page 6). - Overall, the focus is on volume growth, market share gains, and synergy realization post acquisitions to drive earnings growth forward (Pages 2, 12).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The RFQ (Request for Quotation) position remains unchanged from last quarter; it is still a work in progress with no significant updates or finalizations yet. - Kedar Vaze mentioned there is no single large ticket RFQ; instead, finalizations are happening on various timelines across multiple subparts. - Visibility on RFQ finalization for FY25 is not complete; more time is needed before conclusions can be drawn. - Despite RFQ uncertainty, the company is confident about sustaining double-digit revenue growth (around 12%) in the medium term, driven by existing and new products. - Orders have started coming in post destocking in international markets, with hopes to catch up on run rate before year-end, indicating improving order flow.