S H Kelkar & Company Ltd
Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Chemicals & Petrochemicals
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- There are no immediate plans to repay the debt as of now.
- Current operations are generating free cash flow, which is progressively reducing debt.
- Recent investments have been concluded in the Indonesia plant and the Holland Aromatics acquisition.
- No large deployments or new investments are foreseen in the next couple of quarters.
- Debt levels are expected to start coming down after this period.
- The company plans to maintain net debt to EBITDA ratio below 2x as a priority.
- There is no mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the near term.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Recently concluded investments in the Indonesia plant and the acquisition of Holland Aromatics.
- Indonesia factory is expected to commence by the end of the current financial year, enhancing capacity for Middle East and Southeast Asia markets.
- No immediate plans for new capacity investment in Europe; will assess market conditions over the next year or two before deciding.
- Plans to augment India capacity by supporting export business from the India plant, leveraging the new Indonesia facility.
- Backward integration for Global Ingredients scheduled for completion in Q4 FY24, expected to improve supply chain resilience and cost competitiveness.
- No large capital deployments anticipated in the next couple of quarters; operational cash flow used to reduce debt progressively.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Management expects a **12% medium-term CAGR growth** in revenue, with confidence in sustaining this trend (Page 6).
- Volume growth is projected to be **double-digit**, driven by market share gains, especially from new global MNC clients and large corporates (Pages 14, 15).
- The Fragrance segment is expected to grow at over **12% CAGR**, while the Flavour segment targets around **15% CAGR growth** (Page 10).
- Growth is supported by a mix of new and existing products, with new products contributing around 3-6% to revenues (Page 5).
- Export business remains seasonal and uncertain short-term but expected to recover long-term (Page 10).
- The company sees **upside risk** beyond the 12% growth guidance due to ongoing RFQs and new customer acquisitions (Page 10).
- Strategic efforts via backward integration and new product launches will aid sustainable volume and revenue growth.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company is confident of sustaining double-digit revenue growth, targeting around 12% medium-term growth (Page 6).
- EBITDA margins are expected to remain stable with potential to improve if raw material prices decline; current margin is about 16.7% (Pages 8-9).
- Volume growth is a major driver, with existing clients growing at 6-7% plus new product introductions contributing additional growth (Page 8).
- European operations aim for bottom-line improvement even with high capacity utilization (above 85%) (Page 2).
- Backward integration in the Global Ingredients segment is expected to achieve EBITDA breakeven post Q4 FY24, enhancing profitability (Page 6).
- Overall, the focus is on volume growth, market share gains, and synergy realization post acquisitions to drive earnings growth forward (Pages 2, 12).
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The RFQ (Request for Quotation) position remains unchanged from last quarter; it is still a work in progress with no significant updates or finalizations yet.
- Kedar Vaze mentioned there is no single large ticket RFQ; instead, finalizations are happening on various timelines across multiple subparts.
- Visibility on RFQ finalization for FY25 is not complete; more time is needed before conclusions can be drawn.
- Despite RFQ uncertainty, the company is confident about sustaining double-digit revenue growth (around 12%) in the medium term, driven by existing and new products.
- Orders have started coming in post destocking in international markets, with hopes to catch up on run rate before year-end, indicating improving order flow.
