S H Kelkar & Company Ltd
Q4 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
Chemicals & Petrochemicals
fundraise: Nocapex: Norevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No
π°fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company does not expect any large capex or inorganic growth in the near future, having completed significant acquisitions in the past 4 years.
- Current debt stands around Rs. 500 crore, primarily from acquisitions.
- Cash flows are expected to bring down the debt.
- There is no mention of plans for new debt or equity fundraising.
- Capital allocation policy includes distributing 30-40% of cash profit as dividends or share buyback.
- The last major outlay was for the Indonesia project; no major future capex is lined up.
- Incremental capex on product development and infrastructure is planned but not large-scale fundraising.
**Conclusion:** No new major fundraising through debt or equity is planned currently or in the near future.
ποΈcapex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Current large capex: Indonesia factory, expected to be ready by next financial year.
- No large production capex expected in the coming year; focus on incremental capex.
- Incremental capex targeted at product development teams and infrastructure to support growth and diverse projects.
- Product development teams expected to double or triple in the next 3-4 years.
- European facilities (Italy and Netherlands) optimized for increased production without significant capex currently.
- Possible new manufacturing or development capex in Europe anticipated around 18 months from now (2025-26).
- No major inorganic acquisitions planned; focus on organic growth through subsidiaries in the US and Europe.
- Capital allocation policy involves distributing 30-40% of cash profit as dividends or share buybacks; incremental cash likely to be used for debt repayment.
πrevenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Company targets a 10-12% year-on-year revenue growth for the mid-term (3 to 5 years), with potential to exceed this based on current strong order wins.
- Growth is expected across all regions including Europe, India, Southeast Asia, and new markets like the US.
- Volume growth outpaces price increases; last quarterβs growth primarily driven by volume with minimal price impact (~1-2%).
- Market share expansion in India and growth in Flavours segment anticipated to contribute materially.
- New product introductions and new accounts (including wins from a global MNC) expected to add meaningful revenue from H2 FY25 onwards.
- Southeast Asia factory commissioning to boost regional growth.
- Lower capacity utilization (<50%) allows for operating leverage and volume growth without major capex in near term.
- E-commerce and startup segments in India identified as growth drivers.
- Overall, sustained double-digit growth in volume and sales targeted with a focus on market penetration and operational efficiency.
πmargin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company targets a 12%+ CAGR revenue growth over the mid-term (3-5 years) with some quarters possibly showing higher growth due to base effects and new order ramp-up.
- EBITDA margins are projected to sustainably reach around 16%-16.5%, with occasional quarters potentially hitting 18%.
- ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) is expected to improve from the current 13% to upwards of 20% within 4 to 5 quarters, driven by growth and inventory reduction.
- PAT (Profit After Tax) could grow from approx. Rs. 120-130 crore (annualized) to Rs. 140-150 crore with 10% top-line growth and 10% inventory control.
- The ramp-up of new large orders (e.g., MNC deal) may take 12-18 months, contributing further to growth post H2 FY25.
- Flavours segment margins are expected to improve gradually with focus on profitable segments and operational efficiencies.
- No major capex is planned currently, allowing focus on organic growth and efficient capital use.
πorderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company has received orders from an MNC with a cumulative value of approximately Rs. 300 crore.
- The expected run rate from these orders is around Rs. 100 crore per annum over 3 years.
- However, the ramp-up of these orders is delayed by 12 to 18 months due to redesign and revamp of the project by the client.
- First orders for new projects have started but are currently not significant in revenue.
- Full rollout and meaningful revenue contribution from new orders are expected by the second half of FY '25.
- The company is not actively chasing new tenders or orders beyond the current pipeline.
- Order wins are spread across domestic and Indonesian markets, supported by ongoing capacity expansion.
