Sadbhav Infra.

Q3 FY17 Earnings Call Analysis

Construction

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL) plans no additional external funding beyond current refinancing efforts. - Company completed major refinancing, reducing repayment obligations to around Rs. 300 Crores, aiding cash surplus generation. - Incremental equity infusion of Rs. 90-100 Crores expected in second half for three under-construction HAM projects (Waranga-Mahagaon, Udaipur bypass, Rampur Kathgodam II). - Future HAM projects may require incremental equity but current equity infused (~Rs. 155 Crores) suffices for ongoing projects. - Plans to add 3-4 new HAM projects annually, leveraging available growth capital internally generated. - Asset monetization (stake sales) under process as additional growth capital; no firm proposals yet. - No discussion on dividend policy or new equity to date; dividend intentions remain under consideration and tied to bidding outcomes. - Debt repayments scheduled with major bullet payments from FY2020 onwards, suggesting no immediate large debt raises.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL) plans to continue adding HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) projects, targeting around 3-4 new HAM projects every year, reflecting a strategic focus on HAM projects (Page 24). - Incremental equity infusion of around ₹90-100 Crores is anticipated in the second half of the financial year for three HAM SPVs: Waranga-Mahagaon, Udaipur bypass, and Rampur Kathgodam package II (Page 13). - Debt drawdown in SPVs is around ₹1170 Crores, with equity infused about ₹155 Crores up to Sept 2017; further incremental funding expected in coming quarters (Page 13). - Given government's large-scale infrastructure push like Bharatmala program, Sadbhav sees good growth capital opportunity, with possibility to add a couple of projects as they come on favorable terms (Page 16). - Cash surplus at operational SPV level expected to be ₹1300-1400 Crores across FY2019-FY2021, providing organic growth capital (Page 25). - Refinancing completed for various projects to optimize capital structure and reduce repayment burdens (Page 25).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company expects further growth driven by large infrastructure projects announced across India, leading to higher revenue and cash generation. - Traffic growth is picking up, with commercial traffic showing good momentum; some projects like Aurangabad-Jalna have seen >15% traffic growth. - Completion and toll collection start from 23 check posts by March 2018 will boost revenue, with toll rate hikes likely from April 2018. - Post refinancing, repayment obligations are lower (~300 Crores), freeing more cash for growth capital. - SIPL forecasts generating cash surplus of around 1300-1400 Crores between FY2019-2021 from operational SPVs. - HAM projects will continue to be added steadily, with 3-4 new projects expected yearly. - Bharatmala program's large-scale bidding (~30,000 Crores by Dec 2017) and construction targets till 2022 present significant growth opportunities. - Continued organic traffic growth with expectations of double-digit sustainable growth in some projects.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL) is entering a clear cash generation mode with significant growth capital available due to refinancing completion and reduced repayment obligations (~300 Crores). - Expected cash surplus of approximately 1300-1400 Crores between FY2019-FY2021 from operational SPVs, supporting growth without additional external funding. - Traffic growth in commercial vehicles is strong with some projects showing double-digit sustainable growth potential. - SIPL plans to add 3-4 new HAM projects annually, maintaining growth momentum. - Revenues expected to increase due to operationalization of new toll projects and revision of toll rates annually for inflation. - Refinancing and improved cash flows forecast quarter-on-quarter cash generation jump from Q3 onwards. - Major maintenance margins remain healthy at 20-22%, contributing to profit stability. - Overall, profitable growth with steady EPS improvement expected driven by operational efficiencies, asset additions, and traffic growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- As of November 2017, the balance order book from the HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) project is around ₹360 Crores. - Revenue from HAM projects booked in the first half of FY2018 was around ₹103 Crores, compared to ₹99 Crores in FY2017. - Expected HAM revenue for H2 FY2018 is between ₹120 Crores to ₹125 Crores. - The balance HAM order book is expected to be exhausted in the next 21 months. - The company is optimistic about bidding activities, especially with the upcoming Bharatmala program tenders (~₹30,000 Crores by December 2017). - SIPL intends to continue adding 3-4 new HAM projects every year, depending on opportunities. - Total project inflow under Bharatmala is expected to favor EPC mode around 65%-70%, providing execution opportunities. - The company expects a significant volume of bidding activity in Q4 FY2018 and beyond, aligned with national infrastructure plans.