Sadbhav Infra.
Q3 FY17 Earnings Call Analysis
Construction
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL) plans no additional external funding beyond current refinancing efforts.
- Company completed major refinancing, reducing repayment obligations to around Rs. 300 Crores, aiding cash surplus generation.
- Incremental equity infusion of Rs. 90-100 Crores expected in second half for three under-construction HAM projects (Waranga-Mahagaon, Udaipur bypass, Rampur Kathgodam II).
- Future HAM projects may require incremental equity but current equity infused (~Rs. 155 Crores) suffices for ongoing projects.
- Plans to add 3-4 new HAM projects annually, leveraging available growth capital internally generated.
- Asset monetization (stake sales) under process as additional growth capital; no firm proposals yet.
- No discussion on dividend policy or new equity to date; dividend intentions remain under consideration and tied to bidding outcomes.
- Debt repayments scheduled with major bullet payments from FY2020 onwards, suggesting no immediate large debt raises.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL) plans to continue adding HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) projects, targeting around 3-4 new HAM projects every year, reflecting a strategic focus on HAM projects (Page 24).
- Incremental equity infusion of around ₹90-100 Crores is anticipated in the second half of the financial year for three HAM SPVs: Waranga-Mahagaon, Udaipur bypass, and Rampur Kathgodam package II (Page 13).
- Debt drawdown in SPVs is around ₹1170 Crores, with equity infused about ₹155 Crores up to Sept 2017; further incremental funding expected in coming quarters (Page 13).
- Given government's large-scale infrastructure push like Bharatmala program, Sadbhav sees good growth capital opportunity, with possibility to add a couple of projects as they come on favorable terms (Page 16).
- Cash surplus at operational SPV level expected to be ₹1300-1400 Crores across FY2019-FY2021, providing organic growth capital (Page 25).
- Refinancing completed for various projects to optimize capital structure and reduce repayment burdens (Page 25).
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- The company expects further growth driven by large infrastructure projects announced across India, leading to higher revenue and cash generation.
- Traffic growth is picking up, with commercial traffic showing good momentum; some projects like Aurangabad-Jalna have seen >15% traffic growth.
- Completion and toll collection start from 23 check posts by March 2018 will boost revenue, with toll rate hikes likely from April 2018.
- Post refinancing, repayment obligations are lower (~300 Crores), freeing more cash for growth capital.
- SIPL forecasts generating cash surplus of around 1300-1400 Crores between FY2019-2021 from operational SPVs.
- HAM projects will continue to be added steadily, with 3-4 new projects expected yearly.
- Bharatmala program's large-scale bidding (~30,000 Crores by Dec 2017) and construction targets till 2022 present significant growth opportunities.
- Continued organic traffic growth with expectations of double-digit sustainable growth in some projects.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL) is entering a clear cash generation mode with significant growth capital available due to refinancing completion and reduced repayment obligations (~300 Crores).
- Expected cash surplus of approximately 1300-1400 Crores between FY2019-FY2021 from operational SPVs, supporting growth without additional external funding.
- Traffic growth in commercial vehicles is strong with some projects showing double-digit sustainable growth potential.
- SIPL plans to add 3-4 new HAM projects annually, maintaining growth momentum.
- Revenues expected to increase due to operationalization of new toll projects and revision of toll rates annually for inflation.
- Refinancing and improved cash flows forecast quarter-on-quarter cash generation jump from Q3 onwards.
- Major maintenance margins remain healthy at 20-22%, contributing to profit stability.
- Overall, profitable growth with steady EPS improvement expected driven by operational efficiencies, asset additions, and traffic growth.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- As of November 2017, the balance order book from the HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) project is around ₹360 Crores.
- Revenue from HAM projects booked in the first half of FY2018 was around ₹103 Crores, compared to ₹99 Crores in FY2017.
- Expected HAM revenue for H2 FY2018 is between ₹120 Crores to ₹125 Crores.
- The balance HAM order book is expected to be exhausted in the next 21 months.
- The company is optimistic about bidding activities, especially with the upcoming Bharatmala program tenders (~₹30,000 Crores by December 2017).
- SIPL intends to continue adding 3-4 new HAM projects every year, depending on opportunities.
- Total project inflow under Bharatmala is expected to favor EPC mode around 65%-70%, providing execution opportunities.
- The company expects a significant volume of bidding activity in Q4 FY2018 and beyond, aligned with national infrastructure plans.
