Sadbhav Infra.

Q4 FY18 Earnings Call Analysis

Construction

Full Stock Analysis
orderbook: No informationfundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Equity commitment of around Rs.460 Crores for five HAM projects, with Rs.79 Crores additional for Mysore-Bellary project (Page 9). - Equity spend mainly expected in FY2018 and FY2019, with some upfront equity required in the current quarter (Page 9). - Capital expenditure for routine and measure maintenance: estimated Rs.125 Crores for Dhule-Palesner and Hyderabad-Yadgiri MMR in FY2018; Rs.70-75 Crores for Bijapur-Hungund and Rs.290 Crores for Rohtak-Panipat in FY2019 (Pages 6, 9). - Ongoing bidding for new HAM and BOT projects aiming to add around 4-5 new assets yearly with total equity requirement of Rs.400-500 Crores (Page 10). - The company's strategy focuses on developing and constructing roads, with plans for asset churning post maturity (Page 10). - No current signed agreements on asset monetization, but discussions with potential investors are underway (Page 10).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Revenue from operational SPVs for FY 2017 is expected to be around Rs. 1125 Crores, based on the current run rate and normal toll rates (Page 6). - SIPL standalone revenue is expected to be roughly Rs. 300 Crores in FY 2018, driven mainly by routine maintenance of HAM projects and measure maintenance of operational SPVs (Page 11-12). - January 2017 traffic showed growth of 2-3% compared to January 2016, indicating recovery post demonetization, with expectations of continued growth into FY 2018 Q1 (Page 3). - Toll rate hike for FY 2018 is finalized at approximately 4.3%, which will positively impact revenue growth (Page 11). - Bidding pipeline for HAM projects is significant, with expectations to win 4-5 projects per year, supporting future sales and volumes growth (Page 4, 12). - Cash EBITDA margin from operational SPVs is expected to remain around 85% going forward (Page 6).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Revenue from operational SPVs for FY2017 expected around Rs.1125 Crores with ~85% cash EBITDA margin, indicating stable operating profitability. - FY2018 SIPL standalone revenue anticipated at Rs.300 Crores, driven by routine and measure maintenance activities. - Toll rate hike for FY2018 projected around 3-4.3%, supporting revenue growth in toll-based projects. - Reduction in average interest cost from 10.3% to around 9%-9.1% for SPVs post refinancing by FY2019 expected to improve margins and profitability. - Refinancing of major SPVs planned by FY2019 to capture bond market advantages with lower interest rates. - Plans to add 4-5 new projects yearly with equity around Rs.400-500 Crores, fueling growth and asset portfolio expansion. - Expected normalization and growth recovery post demonetization impact, with traffic and toll collection improving from FY2018 Q1 onward. - Debt service coverage ratio maintained at comfortable 1.28 supporting sustainable profitability and growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- As of the call, SIPL has an outstanding order book of Rs. 290 Crores towards routine maintenance of five HAM projects, expected to be executed over 24 to 30 months. - The company expects standalone revenue of about Rs. 300 Crores in FY2018, including routine and measure maintenance contracts. - SIPL is actively bidding; six HAM projects of lane 453 km worth Rs. 5814 Crores had bids submitted, with three bids still unopened. - The HAM bidding pipeline includes 23 projects totaling Rs. 26,275 Crores (1473 km) with financial bids due by March 31, 2017. - For BOT toll projects, only 2 bids totaling Rs. 2,821 Crores (133 km) are upcoming before March 31, 2017. - SIPL plans to continue bidding for both HAM and BOT toll projects, focusing on capturing 4-5 projects per year.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No current stake sale or equity fundraising planned; the company prefers asset churning and focusing on construction expertise (Page 10). - Equity requirement for new HAM projects estimated at Rs.400-500 Crores yearly, funded through internal accruals (Page 10). - Consolidated debt as of Dec 31, 2016, is Rs.8,225 Crores; standalone debt is Rs.1,108 Crores (Page 6). - Plans to refinance major SPVs like Maharashtra border check post, Shreenathji-Udaipur, Bhilwara-Rajsamand by FY2019, focusing on converting majority of debt into bonds to benefit from better pricing (Pages 15-16). - Refinancing expected to complete by Q4 FY2017 or early FY2018 with bond issuances (Page 14-16). - Monetization of assets under discussion with potential investors, but no agreements or final decisions yet (Page 9-10).