Sadbhav Infra.

Q4 FY20 Earnings Call Analysis

Construction

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
💰

fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No explicit announcement of new fundraising through debt or equity was mentioned in the call. - The company is focusing on internal accruals for equity infusion in Hybrid Annuity Models (HAM) projects; ₹341 crores already infused out of a total ₹1,330 crores needed, balance to be infused over next 2-2.5 years. - No significant drawdowns planned currently on the Maharashtra border check post line of credit; equity commitments are being met internally. - Preference is toward bidding EPC projects currently rather than aggressively pursuing HAM projects, indicating controlled growth without aggressive new funding. - The company aims to repay around ₹120 crores of debt over the next 12 months from existing resources. - Discussions on asset sale (BoT portfolio) are ongoing but no definitive timeline or fundraise has been concluded yet.
📊

revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Traffic growth observed strong in last 3 quarters; slight reduction in Q3 but expected to improve in Q4 and Q1, linked to overall economic growth. - Company confident of continuous quarterly cash generation from operational portfolio with over 15 years average balance period, indicating stable revenue. - Anticipates traffic growth around 4.5% year-on-year on consolidated basis across operational BoT projects. - Plans to focus on EPC project bidding in near term, with cautious approach towards Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects due to market conditions and lender requirements. - Expected infusion of equity in HAM projects totaling around Rs. 1,330 crores over next 2.5 to 3 years, indicating ongoing project execution. - Management optimistic about revenue and net profit growth within next 2-3 quarters as cash profits improve quarter-on-quarter. - Order backlog of HAM projects around Rs. 600 crores (excluding major maintenance), with major maintenance work ongoing over FY20 and FY21.
📈

margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Cash profit has shown consistent quarter-on-quarter improvement, with the third consecutive quarter surpassing Rs. 100 crores (Q3 FY19 cash profit: Rs. 106 crores). - Cash profit increased by 21.8% from operational SPVs and standalone business in Q3 FY19 vs Q3 FY18, and YTD FY19 cash profit increased by 55.1%. - Revenue guidance for standalone business is maintained at Rs. 375-400 crores for FY19. - EBITDA margin guidance remains around 85% for operational SPVs. - Company expects to become net profit positive in 2-3 quarters currently, driven by revenue growth and operational cash flows. - Equity infusion planned of Rs. 1,330 crores over next 2-2.5 years for HAM projects, supporting future growth. - Traffic growth expected to increase linked with the country's economic growth, boosting toll revenues. - Company will focus on EPC bidding and selectively on HAM projects for growth. - Long-term portfolio average tenure is over 15 years, providing clear visibility for stable earnings.
📋

orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Current order book of Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited (SIPL) stands at around ₹600 crores, mainly comprising dual HAM projects to be executed over the next 24 months. (Page 4) - The order book includes EPC orders, larger in proportion, valued between ₹600 crores to ₹1,000 crores, and Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects valued around ₹800 crores to ₹1,400 crores. (Page 13) - There is a sizable pipeline of around 75 to 78 projects in HAM and EPC, with expectations that 30 to 35 projects may be awarded before the election code of conduct is declared. (Page 13) - SIPL is currently focusing on bidding for EPC projects and will evaluate HAM projects opportunistically. (Page 10) - Major maintenance contracts of approximately ₹120-125 crores across some SPVs are underway, spreading over FY20 and FY21. (Page 14)
🏗️

capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Equity infusion for HAM projects is a key capital investment: total required is around ₹1,330 crores, with ₹341 crores already infused; balance to be infused over next 2 to 2.5 years until FY22 (Page 8, 13). - For Q4, planned equity infusion is about ₹35 crores; ₹400 crores in FY20; and ₹410-420 crores in FY21 (Page 13). - Mobilization advances for under-construction HAM projects mostly pending—10% of project value yet to be drawn for Bhimasar Bhuj, Kim-Ankleshwar, Tumkur-Shivamogga, and Vizag Port projects (Page 15). - Preference currently to bid for EPC projects due to market conditions; slower approach on new HAM projects till asset transaction concludes (Page 10). - Significant capital required mainly for ongoing HAM projects with long balance periods averaging over 15 years, ensuring steady cash generation (Page 16).