Sempra
Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis
Multi-Utilities
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: Yes
๐ฐfundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or equity on page 12 or surrounding pages.
- The company plans to focus on recycling capital back into utilities post the closing of Sempra Infrastructure Partners transaction, implying use of existing capital rather than new fundraising.
- There's a focus on strengthening the balance sheet post-close through parent debt paydown and deconsolidation of SI Partners.
- Capital allocation is primarily toward a $65 billion capital plan with about $9 billion upside, mostly funded internally rather than through new equity or debt issuance.
- Efforts include improving credit profile and managing rating agency thresholds, suggesting prudent balance sheet management without immediate new debt/equity issuance.
- No direct statements regarding issuing new debt or equity fundraising at this time in the transcript provided.
๐๏ธcapex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Sempra is executing a record $65 billion capital plan supporting strong rate base growth, with a majority focused in Texas by decade-end.
- There is approximately $9 billion of incremental capital opportunities beyond the base plan, primarily concentrated in Texas.
- Oncorโs current $47.5 billion capital plan is solid and does not depend heavily on large data center load arrivals.
- An additional $10 billion incremental CapEx bucket is being actively pursued and expected to be updated by Q2.
- ERCOT recently approved about $2.9 billion in South Dallas transmission projects, included in incremental opportunities.
- Oncor is growing earnings at 30% annually through 2027 midpoint, supported by transmission infrastructure investments.
- LNG capital allocation reduced as Sempra shifts to a pure-play utility business with lower risk focus, emphasizing Texas utilities.
- Supply chain efforts are focused on securing equipment and labor availability beyond five years to support capital programs.
๐revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Sempra is executing a record $65 billion capital plan supporting strong projected rate base growth through the plan period.
- Improving visibility into ~$9 billion of incremental capital opportunities beyond the base plan, primarily in Texas.
- Expects to derive a majority of rate base from Texas by the end of the decade (~60% expected).
- Oncor's earnings projected to grow at 30% annually through mid-2027.
- Large load growth (127 GW qualifying load, mainly data center related) to drive higher levels of capital spending in Texas, beyond the base plan.
- LNG segment expected to grow but capital allocation will reduce as Sempra focuses on pure-play utility business.
- LNG projects (e.g., ECA) near substantial completion, supporting revenue recognition starting this summer.
- Affirmed full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30 and 2027 EPS guidance of $5.10 to $5.70, with long-term EPS growth projected at 7%-9%.
๐margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range affirmed at $4.80 to $5.30.
- 2027 EPS guidance range affirmed at $5.10 to $5.70.
- Projected long-term EPS growth rate maintained at 7% to 9%, among the highest in the utility sector.
- Oncor is growing earnings at approximately 30% annually through the midpoint of its 2027 guidance.
- Capital plan supports strong projected rate base growth, with increasing investments primarily in Texas.
- ~$9 billion of incremental capital opportunities identified beyond the base plan, mainly in Texas.
- Improved financial returns and regulatory developments (e.g., Oncor's ROE increasing closer to authorized 9.75%) support earnings growth.
- Sempra's strategy focuses on durable earnings growth combined with current yield and long-term capital appreciation.
๐orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Oncor has secured contracted slots for their base capital plan through 2028.
- For the outer two years beyond 2028, Oncor has understandings or agreements (not all formalized) with suppliers to meet needs.
- Some suppliers offer only 3-year contracts, but Oncor feels in excellent shape for the first 3 years and confident about the next 2.
- The Board has authorized Oncor to secure slots and products beyond their base plan to handle incremental buckets.
- There has been substantial progress in firming up $10 billion of incremental capital opportunities beyond the base plan, with updates expected later in 2024.
- Orderbook includes significant equipment already ordered/acquired, e.g., 765kV equipment.
- Oncorโs supply chain management and contracting efforts provide a competitive advantage in securing resources for future needs.
