Shri Keshav
Q2 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis
Cement & Cement Products
fundraise: Yescapex: Norevenue: Category 1margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- No major capex planned until FY '27; focus is on stabilizing the recently completed cement plant expansion.
- Future capacity increase for cement (up to 1.6-1.8 million tons) will require adding crushing and grinding capacity once current capacity utilization reaches around 70%.
- Potential future solar capacity addition of about 30 MW is under Board consideration, but no decision taken yet; planned post cement plant stabilization.
- RMC (Ready-Mix Concrete) plant project study completed; project initiation delayed by a quarter, will commence once cement plant stabilizes (expected by Q2 or Q3 FY '26).
- Capex in solar and RMC will be considered after plant stabilization, likely post-Q2 FY '26.
- Existing solar plant investment approx. INR 196 crores for 40 MW capacity; payback period around 8-9 years with operational cost efficiency improvements expected in future expansions.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Cement capacity increased from 0.36 million tons to 1 million tons, with plans to further increase to 2 million tons in the future.
- Target capacity utilization: 45% in FY '26, 55-60% in FY '27, and 65-70% beyond.
- Sales volume growth: 42% year-on-year increase in Q1 FY '26; anticipated continued ramp-up in subsequent quarters.
- Market share currently around 3-4% with potential to reach 5-6% in existing markets.
- Contribution from institutional buyers expected to grow from 3-4% in Q1 to 10-12% in Q2 FY '26, stabilizing at 20-25% eventually.
- EBITDA expected to increase to INR 100 crores at 65-70% capacity utilization by FY '27.
- Strategic focus on deepening market penetration in current regions before expanding to Kerala and Bangalore.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- EBITDA for FY '26 expected in the range of INR 50-60 crores, with margins around 25-30%.
- EBITDA for FY '25 Q1 was INR 10.41 crores, showing 32.53% YoY growth in total income.
- EBITDA per ton increased sharply to INR 365 in Q1 FY '26 from less than INR 100 in FY '25, indicating operational ramp-up.
- With 45% capacity utilization, management expects EBITDA margins to sustain; 65-70% utilization could yield INR 100 crore EBITDA by FY '27.
- PAT growth is expected but influenced by deferred tax liabilities; focus remains on EBITDA and PBT.
- Earnings growth driven largely by volume increase and capacity expansion (from 0.36 million to 1 million tons).
- Solar segment also contributes significantly to EBITDA (INR 7.8 crores in Q1 FY '26) with stable power sale realizations.
- Management targets EBITDA per ton to approach South industry average (~INR 560) within a year.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company has begun receiving orders from institutional/government projects, such as KRIDL (Karnataka Road Infrastructure Development Corporation).
- In the last quarter, they dispatched around 3,000 to 4,000 tons to institutional clients.
- This quarter, they expect to more than double that institutional order quantity.
- They anticipate institutional buyer contribution to stabilize between 20% to 25% of volumes in the near future.
- The company is targeting increased sales through deeper market penetration and new customer acquisition but currently focusing on existing markets before expanding to new regions like Kerala or Bangalore.
- Institutional orders are expected to grow steadily as they qualify for more government-related infrastructure projects due to increased capacity.
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No immediate plans for new capacity addition or major capex until FY '27, focusing on stabilizing the existing cement plant.
- Debt is set to reduce significantly with three term loans closing this year; two already closed in Q1 and one by Q4.
- Debt reduction is expected to continue steadily over the next 3 years, repaying around 30%-40% (~INR 70 crores).
- Debt will only increase if new cement/RMC plants are added in the future, but currently, no such plans are indicated.
- Management confident about servicing and repaying existing debt through internal accruals without needing to raise additional capital.
- Board is discussing potential solar capacity expansion, but no financing details or timelines have been provided yet.
