Steel Strips Wheels Ltd

Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No explicit mention of any new fundraising through equity or fresh debt was made during the call. - The company is focused on deleveraging and has reduced long-term debt from 374 Cr (222 Cr remaining) in FY23 with scheduled repayment of 60 Cr next year. - CAPEX guidance is around 150 Cr for FY24, funded from internal accruals and cash flows, not via new borrowing. - Debt to equity is at a manageable 0.52x, with emphasis on maintaining this leverage and improving ROCE. - No plans stated for raising fresh equity; management prioritizes organic growth and utilizing cash flow for CAPEX and debt reduction. - The company will continue to work collaboratively with stakeholders for common sustenance, without indicating capital raising events.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY '24 CAPEX guidance is around โ‚น150 crores, including alloy wheel factory expansion and other business developments. - Additional โ‚น150 crores CAPEX planned for AMW (Alloy and Motor Wheel) business, expected to materialize within the current financial year. - Total CAPEX including AMW could reach around โ‚น300 crores. - Aggressive CAPEX on alloy wheel capacity buildup to meet rapidly growing demand and exports, targeting capacity expansion from 3 million to about 5 million wheels over 12-18 months. - Focus on expanding export markets with alloy wheel exports expected to grow from negligible to โ‚น80-100 crores, potentially doubling or 2.5x in coming years. - Strategic JV with an Israel company for controllers business is in definitive agreement stage, with revenue recognition expected from development activities next financial year.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Steel Strips Wheels Limited expects overall volume growth of 12% to 15% in FY '24, supported by domestic and export markets. - Revenue guidance for FY '24 is projected between โ‚น4,500 crores to โ‚น4,600 crores based on the same raw material price basis as the previous year. - Export volume growth is anticipated to be a key driver, with potential surprises favoring higher growth. Export volumes recorded a 48% increase in April 2023. - Domestic market growth is steady, particularly in the commercial vehicle segment contributing high single-digit growth. - Passenger vehicle segment growth is expected at 8% to 10%, lower than the prior yearโ€™s 20% growth. - Alloy wheels are a significant growth driver, contributing high single-digit volume growth despite a high base. - The company aims to maintain or improve EBITDA per wheel, supporting margin stability alongside volume growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- FY '24 volume growth guidance: 12% to 15%, driven by exports and alloy wheels expansion. - EBITDA per wheel expected to maintain around Rs. 250 to Rs. 265, indicating stable operating margins. - EBITDA growth projected roughly in line with volume growth at 12% to 15%, with EBITDA estimated around Rs. 500-520 crores. - Export revenues anticipated to increase significantly, contributing to margin improvement and higher earnings. - Alloy wheel capacity expansion (from 3 million to up to 5 million in 12-18 months) expected to boost earnings potential. - PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes expected to add incremental EBITDA accretion of ~8% by FY '24-'25. - EBIT margins projected to improve gradually with scale, aided by enhanced export mix and product mix optimization. - Free cash flow of Rs. 350-400 crores annually indicates strong cash generation supporting growth investments.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- For the next financial year, the topline guidance is around INR 4,500 to 4,600 crores with volume growth of 12% to 15%. - The order book visibility is fairly strong for the next 12 to 18 months with expected low single to low double-digit volume growth. - Export orders are showing promise with recovery from damage in the previous financial year; positive developments are expected from the export side. - Close to 28 RFQs on the export side are being worked upon, expected to contribute from Q3 or Q4 of FY '23-'24. - On the domestic front, market share gains are being targeted with some potential new large clients (including Maruti) anticipated in FY '24. - Capacity expansion underway to support increased order volumes in alloy wheels segment, from 3 million to about 5 million units over next 12 to 18 months.