Steel Strips Wheels Ltd

Q2 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Current FY capex is approximately INR 280-300 crores, focused on alloy wheels and knuckles expansion (Page 15). - Expansion of AMW capacity: 0.5 million capacity shifted to Jamshedpur; added 0.35-0.4 million capacity in Dappar for tractor capability; remaining 0.5 million capacity usage plans to be clarified next quarter (Pages 13-15). - New knuckle capacity of 1 million expected by March/April 2026, adding to existing 0.5 million capacity, with order book of ~900,000 units for FY '26-27 (Page 17). - Long-term and short-term debt expected to be INR 850-900 crores by year-end to support capex; long-term around INR 450 crores at 7-7.5% cost (Page 20). - Plans for a wholly owned subsidiary in the European Union to handle business awarded by OEMs and potentially facilitate manufacturing (Page 11). - Focus on capacity optimization and expansion to meet demand and de-risking strategy in CV and PV segments (Pages 12-13).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Domestic alloy wheel segment expected to grow at ~11-12% in the current year (Page 7). - Export alloy wheel volumes anticipated to grow around 18-20%, with Europe showing strong inquiries and South America having healthy potential (Pages 7-8). - Overall company volume growth expected to be around 9-10%, with value growth higher due to increased alloy and CV segments, plus export growth (Page 6). - Alloy wheels penetration in PV segment projected to increase from 38-39% to around 48-50% over 2-3 years (Page 14). - Aluminum knuckles expected to grow at 30-35% over 5 years due to low base and EV safety trends (Page 18). - Capacity ramp-up to 1.5 million alloy wheels annually by early 2027; monthly production expected to reach 65,000-75,000 units by Q1 2027 (Page 20). - EBITDA per wheel expected to improve with volume growth, contingent on market conditions (Page 9).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- PAT growth has been flat over the last 3-4 years primarily due to increased depreciation and finance costs from back-to-back capex (alloy wheel expansion, knuckles facility) (Page 16-17). - Depreciation increased from ~INR25 crores to about INR30 crores per quarter; annualized depreciation is now ~INR120 crores vs. ~INR101 crores earlier (Page 17). - Finance cost rose due to higher capex but is decreasing quarter-on-quarter (Page 17). - Capex is stabilizing, so incremental revenue benefits should improve PAT going forward (Page 17). - EBITDA per wheel held steady at ~INR261.7 in Q1 and is expected to improve with rising alloy and knuckle volumes (Page 9). - Operating expenses were front-loaded in Q1 (repairs/maintenance); normalization will help future EBITDA margins (Page 16). - Volume growth outlook: domestic alloy wheel growth ~11-12%, export volumes ~18-20%, overall volume growth ~9-10% anticipated (Page 6-7). - Company targets 15% overall top-line growth if volumes sustain (Page 16). - Increased utilization in knuckles and alloy wheels capacity expected to drive future earnings growth (Page 19-20).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company is actively discussing the order book and developments with both domestic and international market customers. - Current annual manufacturing capacity is 1.5 million units, with plans to expand beyond based on demand. - The pace of capacity utilization is ramping up, targeting 65,000 to 75,000 units per month by January-March 2027. - For aluminum knuckles, current revenue outlook includes approximately 900,000 units for FY '26-'27. - There are ongoing discussions regarding utilization of a 5 million smaller wheels capacity, presently underutilized but expected to be optimized. - Recent allocation includes a nomination for close to INR 300 crores business from European OEMs. - Export order targets: INR 600 crores planned for the current year, with a potential to reach INR 1,000 crores over the next 3-4 years. - The company is optimistic about order growth in Europe and South America despite uncertainties like U.S. tariffs.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company is undertaking capex of roughly INR 280-300 crores in the current financial year for alloy wheel and knuckles expansion. - About 50% of this capex will be funded through debt. - The net debt position is expected to be in the range of INR 850-900 crores by the year-end. - No explicit mention of new equity fundraising was made in the provided transcript pages. - The focus is on managing and optimizing existing debt with capex-related borrowings.