Steel Strips Wheels Ltd

Q4 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

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capex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Nofundraise: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company has taken on additional debt of around INR100 crores for the acquisition of AMW; total debt expected to be around INR860-900 crores by end of FY24. - FY25 capex planned at around INR180 crores, including INR150 crores for knuckle expansion and INR30 crores for maintenance. - No indication of new equity fundraising; INR133.15 crores for AMW acquisition was infused via intercorporate loan, with equity portion only INR50 lakh. - Debt is expected to peak by FY24 end; management anticipates debt reduction starting FY25 onward through cash accruals and minimum repayments of INR90 crores per year. - No mention of fresh debt or equity fundraising beyond current plans. - Existing debt repayment and cash accruals are expected to manage future capex and reduce debt gradually.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY'25 capex estimated at around INR180 crores, including INR150 crores for alloy knuckles and INR30 crores for general/maintenance capex. - No additional capex planned for EV side beyond the current investments. - AMW acquisition involved a capex/debt of around INR100 crores, with total acquisition cost INR138.15 crores (INR50 lakh equity + INR133.15 crore intercorporate loan). - Capacity expansion underway for alloy wheels, with blended plant capacity of 6-7 million units targeting INR700-800 crores revenue in the medium term. - Knuckle alloy business to start revenue generation from July-August 2024, targeting INR50 crores in the first phase and up to INR270-300 crores in the second phase. - No other major capex anticipated beyond these ongoing projects; surplus cash expected to be utilized for incremental debt repayment starting FY'25.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- FY'25 revenue target: INR 5,000 crores - INR 5,000+ crores (Page 20) - Steel wheels volume for FY'25: Estimate around 160-162 million wheels with expected 5% growth (Page 22) - Alloy wheels volume for FY'25: Anticipated 3.5 to 3.6 million wheels (Page 21) - Alloy wheel exports revenue expected to grow from INR 550-600 crores in FY'24 to INR 750-800 crores in FY'25 (Page 11) - Domestic alloy wheel market penetration steady at ~38-39%, supporting volume growth of 4-5% for PV segment (Page 10) - AMW (Alloy Medium Wheels) revenue expected INR 60-80 crores in FY'25 and build up to INR 150-200 crores by FY'26 (Page 23) - Steel wheel revenue growth projected at 3-5% supported by PV (Passenger Vehicle) growth of 4-5% (Page 11) - Knuckle business revenue expected INR 50 crores in initial phase with potential to reach INR 270-300 crores in subsequent phase (Page 18)
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company anticipates top-line growth from INR4,400-4,500 crores in FY'24 to INR4,800-5,000 crores in FY'25. - EBITDA per wheel is expected to improve consistently, focusing on absolute growth rather than percentages. - Alloy wheel segment to grow about 20% over the next two years. - Export revenue for alloy wheels expected to increase from INR550-600 crores in FY'24 to INR750-800 crores in FY'25. - Steel wheel revenue projected to grow moderately at 3-5%. - AMW assets to contribute INR60-80 crores revenue in FY'25; margins expected to start improving by FY'26. - Alloy knuckle business revenue expected to start from July-August 2024 with margins anticipated in double digits longer term. - Debt reduction and controlled capex are expected to support surplus cash flow, enabling prepayment of liabilities. - Overall margin buildup may be gradual, with significant improvements anticipated from FY'26 onwards.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Alloy wheel order book for FY25 is expected to be around 3.5 to 3.6 million wheels (Page 10). - This order book number can be seen as a targeted sales volume for next year, considering pluses and minuses due to demand fluctuations (Page 10). - The export segment in alloy wheels is key for growth, with domestic market penetration stabilizing around 38-39% (Page 10). - AMW acquisition capacity: 6 to 7 million wheels blended capacity including PV, tractors, trucks, domestic and export markets (Page 19). - Expected top-line revenue from AMW assets is INR700 to INR800 crores minimum; initial contribution of INR60 to INR80 crores in FY25 from truck wheels (Page 19). - The alloy knuckle business is expected to start generating sales revenue from July/August 2024 (Page 9).