Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Automobiles

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Currently, there are no plans for fundraising through the EV arm; the business is well-funded. - Capex funding is secured with Rs. 7,500 crore from TPG covering 50% of the Rs. 2,000 crore planned funding. - Additional funding support is expected from the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, which benefits capex spending. - Internal expectations are that PLI benefits, pending government approval and certificate, may be realized by Q4. - Tata Motors is on track to reduce net debt at JLR from GBP 2.249 billion to below GBP 1 billion by the end of the financial year, indicating continued debt management. - No immediate new debt or equity fundraising has been highlighted; focus remains on executing current plans and deleveraging.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Tata Motors has secured Rs. 7,500 crore from TPG, covering 50% of a planned $2 billion funding for the India EV arm, along with PLI benefits, indicating strong capex funding. - PLI scheme requires Rs. 120 crore threshold capex with a target of Rs. 2,000 crore for eligibility; benefits include 13%-18% incentives on EV sales. - Upcoming investments for new generation BEV production planned at UK plants Halewood and Solihull (investment levels expected to rise in H2). - Tata Motors plans Rs. 8,000 crore capex spend for the current year, on track to deliver. - Additional Rs. 100 crore planned investment over next 2-3 years in Freight Tiger for digital freight management. - Investment also ongoing in Tata Technologies with strategic sale to TPG Climate Rise fund focusing on green technologies. - Focus on EV battery plants with UK and India plants announced, with updates to be shared soon.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Tata Motors expects to stay committed to improving the value proposition with every model year and regulatory change for sustained growth (Page 21). - PV segment is expected to see strong festive season growth (30% registrations growth during Navaratra) backed by new launches and CNG success (Page 21). - Nexon new model is receiving very strong response with 3-4 months waiting period; EV bookings have increased 2-3 times compared to normal times (Page 21). - PV industry mid-to-long term growth projected at 6-7% CAGR; FY 2025 expected to have single-digit growth (Page 17). - EV sales currently concentrated in 25 cities; expansion into larger markets anticipated to drive growth (Page 18). - Introduction of new EV price points and body styles expected to broaden market and increase volume (Page 18). - Commercial vehicle market share improving, especially in M&HCV and ILMCV; focus on profitable growth in SCV segment via B2C pivot (Pages 8, 20). - Inventory and supply constraints expected to ease, supporting volume growth in H2 (Page 12).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- EBIT margin guidance remains to reach double-digit levels by FY 2026, with no changes despite current year update to 8% (Richard Molyneux, p.20). - Tata Motors anticipates profitable growth from new electric Jaguar models, contributing positively to future EBITDA and EBIT (p.18). - For FY 2025, moderate single-digit growth is expected in the passenger vehicle segment, with industry mid-to-long-term CAGR around 6-7% (Shailesh Chandra, p.17). - Commercial vehicles (M&HCV) expected to see continued double-digit YoY growth in Q3, flattish to slight growth in Q4; overall FY 2025 outlook to be clearer post-Q1 elections (Girish Wagh, p.16). - Free cash flow for current year guided at GBP 2 billion, despite EBIT improvement, due to increased investment in BEV production capacity (p.13). - EBITDA improvements supported by material cost savings, reduced marketing expenses, and strong pricing/mix (p.5-6). - EV business profitability nearing double-digit EBITDA, with expected further improvement as battery prices decline (p.10-11).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- JLR order book was around 168,000 units (Page 5). - Order book runs down steadily by about 5,000 units per month, expected to normalize to pre-pandemic levels (~110,000 units) by end of FY or start of next fiscal year (Page 16). - Tata Motors PV segment saw order book depletion during the festive period due to deliveries, but replenished through new successful launches like Harrier, Safari, Nexon (Page 24). - Nexon bookings 2-3 times higher than normal; waiting periods 3-4 months depending on variant (Page 21). - Curvv and Sierra models planned for launch in 2024 and 2025 respectively; Sanand plant production starting H1 2024 (Page 23). - ACE EV has initial orders from 4 customers, growing retail traction, deploying vehicles month-over-month; finance and charging infrastructure being improved (Page 15).