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Tata Steel LtdQ2 FY23

Tata Steel Ltd Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 190P/E: 23.6Market Cap: ₹2.7L CrSector: Ferrous Metals

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 4

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • India steel production is about 70% of the overall portfolio and expected to continue rising in the coming years.
  • Domestic steel deliveries in India grew 18% YoY, driven by increased domestic deliveries to key segments like automotive and retail.
  • The 5 MTPA Kalinganagar expansion will consolidate leadership in automotive and grow presence in value-added segments like oil and gas and solar.
  • Neelachal plant ramp-up and upcoming electric arc furnace in Punjab will boost retail presence and volumes.
  • Expansion in downstream portfolio (wires, tubes, ductile iron pipes, tinplate) with recent commissioning of new tube mills increasing capacity from 1 to 1.3 million tons.
  • The company aims at growth alongside deleveraging, balancing capex for capacity expansion with maintaining a net debt to EBITDA target of 2-2.5x.
  • E-commerce platform sales (Aashiyana) crossed Rs. 1,600 crores in 12 months, expanding virtual sales reach.
  • Overall, pipeline for growth in India is strong, supported by government spending and improving end-use consumption.

Margin guidance

Category 4
  • Tata Steel aims for positive EBITDA in the Netherlands for the full year FY24, targeting breakeven or better for the combined European entity in H2 FY24, despite ongoing challenges like blast furnace relining and energy costs.
  • The company plans structural cost takeouts in Europe, especially the UK, by H2 FY24 to strengthen operations and reduce losses.
  • Growth capex is prioritized in India, including Kalinganagar expansion and new mills, supporting leadership in auto and value-added segments aiming for capacity up to 40 million tons by 2030.
  • Tata Steel targets balanced deleveraging with a Net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2-2.5x, aiming to reduce absolute net debt by around $1 billion per year, though this may vary with capex spend and working capital volatility.
  • Overall, profitability is expected to improve with lower energy costs, ramp-up of new assets, decarbonization initiatives, and better product mix, supporting sustainable long-term earnings growth.

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Fundraise plans

  • No explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or equity in the current quarter or near future.
  • The company is focused on deleveraging with a target of $1 billion net debt reduction, though this may be recalibrated with a balanced approach towards growth capex.
  • Debt repayments are ongoing, with Rs. 7,200 crores repaid in the recent quarter and Rs. 4,500 crores planned in the next quarter.
  • Some refinancing happened, but there is no direct indication of new large-scale debt raisings.
  • Capital allocation is increasing, especially for growth in India, but the company aims to maintain investment-grade balance sheet standards.
  • Discussions with the UK government for support include policy and possibly financial measures, but no equity raising is mentioned.

Order book

The provided pages of the document do not mention any information regarding the current or expected order book or pending orders for Tata Steel. The discussions primarily focus on: - Operational and financial performance in Europe and India. - Updates on blast furnace relining and energy costs. - Lease and joint venture arrangements, specifically Tata Steel BlueScope. - Capacity expansion and iron ore mine acquisitions. - Outlook on EBITDA and debt management. - Government discussions related to UK operations. For detailed information on the order book or pending orders, please refer to other sections of the report or specific investor communications.

Capex plans

Yes
  • About 23% of FY23 capex was allocated to environmental and social initiatives, covering compulsory environmental, safety, and license-to-operate expenditures across India, Netherlands, and the UK.
  • Ongoing investment in Europe's Netherlands operations includes blast furnace relining and decarbonisation efforts, partially funded through government support and internal cash flows.
  • In India, capital expenditure is prioritized for growth, including the 5 MTPA expansion at Kalinganagar and a 2.2 MTPA cold rolling mill commissioning, with strong pipelines for further capacity increases.
  • Tata Steel BlueScope JV involves long-term leasing arrangements and asset transfers to boost coated products market presence.
  • Future UK operations plan depends on ongoing government discussions for both financial and policy support; structural operating model changes are anticipated post-March 2024.
  • Capital allocation reflects a balance between deleveraging and growth investments, with capex levels higher than in past years to support expansion and sustainability goals.

How does Tata Steel Ltd rank vs peers in Ferrous Metals?

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