TD Power Systems Ltd

Q4 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis

Electrical Equipment

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The management indicated that they will not make any bulk capacity investments until FY '28. - They mentioned that between FY '28 and FY '30, they will evaluate the need for further capacity expansion based on market growth. - No explicit mention was made about new fundraising through debt or equity in the current call. - Investments planned before FY '28 are focused on automation, lean manufacturing, and specific areas like 2-pole generator production and motors. - Any major investment decisions or capacity expansions likely to be assessed around next year (i.e., around early 2027). - No clear indication of timing or nature (debt/equity) of future fundraising was provided.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- No bulk capacity investments planned until FY '28; focus will be on utilizing existing assets fully until then. - Investment will be made in 2-pole generator production and motors business starting FY '28 onwards. - Continuing investments in automation and lean manufacturing to improve production efficiency. - Land available at the first plant allows for potential capacity duplication in the future; a decision on further bulk investments expected around early next year (2027) based on market growth. - No immediate large-scale capex planned but readiness for capacity expansion if market demand sustains post-FY '28. This strategy balances steady growth with cautious capital deployment, maintaining flexibility to scale as needed.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- FY '27 guidance is set at INR 2,200+ crores, considered conservative, with quarterly inflows around INR 575-600 crores expected. - Management anticipates further upside potential in order inflows in the second half of FY '27. - Capacity utilization is increasing; ramp-up to INR 550-575 crores per quarter in Q4 FY '26 and around INR 600 crores per quarter from Q1 FY '27 onward. - No bulk capacity investments planned till FY '28; focus is on making current production more efficient. - Post FY '28, potential new investments expected in 2-pole generator production and motor business. - Sustained growth expected in both domestic and export markets, including gas turbines, gas engines, steam turbines, hydro turbines, and motors. - Long-term visibility and demand from global OEMs are strong up to 2030. - Motor business expected to grow moderately at 10-15% per year. Overall, steady volume and revenue growth with capacity ramp-up and conservative guidance aiming for expansion beyond FY '28.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- FY '27 guidance is INR 2,200 crores revenue, considered conservative, with potential upside in the second half. - Order inflow expected around INR 575-600 crores per quarter in FY '27, matching production ramp-up. - EBITDA margin around 18.3% for nine months FY '26; gross margin expected to sustain near 35%. - Profit after tax is growing (41% increase over previous year nine months). - Strong demand outlook up to 2030 from global OEMs, especially in gas turbines and engines. - Export-driven growth continues; 79% of order inflows are exports. - Copper price hikes will be passed on to customers, thus protecting margin. - No bulk capacity additions planned until FY '28, focusing on efficiency and automation. - Motor and new generator business expected to ramp up in calendar year 2027. - Strong cash position maintained, supporting steady profit growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The order book for the Manufacturing segment stands at INR 18.45 billion. - INR 15.6 billion pertains to manufacturing business. - INR 2.85 billion is the railway business (split as INR 1.87 billion Indian locomotive and INR 0.98 billion new orders). - Exports and deemed exports make up 75% of pending orders, excluding railway orders. - Order inflow during the quarter reached a record INR 6.56 billion, up 61% YoY. - Nine-month order inflow from direct and deemed exports is INR 12.05 billion, up 62% YoY. - 79% of nine-month order inflow is exports; 21% domestic. - Growth in pending orders for Generators and Motors (ex-railways) is 54% compared to FY '25 and 120% compared to FY '24, indicating more than doubling in 24 months. - Guidance for FY '27 order booking is around INR 2,200+ crores, with expected quarterly inflows of INR 575-600 crores.