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TD Power Systems LtdQ1 FY26

TD Power Systems Ltd Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 1,255P/E: 85.8Market Cap: ₹20.5K CrSector: Electrical Equipment

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • FY '27 revenue guidance is around INR 24 billion (INR 2,400+ crores).
  • Capacity to address up to INR 32 billion revenue by FY '28, expected conservatively.
  • Order book of INR 19.7 billion is planned for full execution in the current year.
  • Order book inflow growing quarter-on-quarter, with a projected 20%-25% order book growth in FY '27 over FY '26.
  • Current capacity plus incremental capex of INR 50 crores each in FY '27 and FY '28 supports reaching INR 30-32 billion in revenue.
  • Large generator business to see capacity ramp-up starting calendar year 2027, with big growth expected from FY '29 onwards.
  • Steam turbine segment expected to grow steadily at 10%-12% annually.
  • AI data center power requirement market (US alone) projected at ~100 GW over 5-7 years, indicating a long growth cycle.
  • Overall strong demand momentum across multiple power generation segments, supporting sustained growth.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • TD Power Systems is witnessing strong market growth, driven by AI data centers, grid stabilization, renewables, geothermal, hydro, and waste-to-energy sectors, indicating sustained future demand.
  • Guidance for FY'27 has been revised upward to INR 2,400+ crore revenue with high probability of further increase.
  • Export order inflow expected to remain strong, constituting around 76-80% of total orders.
  • Profits after tax for FY'26 increased 36% year-on-year; EBITDA margin steady around 18%.
  • Large generator business focused on capacity expansion preparing for significant ramp-up by FY'29.
  • Domestic steam turbine segment expected to grow steadily at 10-12%.
  • Strong relationships with major engine OEMs support long-term revenue and order growth.
  • Margins expected to remain stable due to hedging, price variation clauses, and FX tailwinds, despite commodity cost volatility.
  • Continued capex for capacity and automation will support revenue growth targets of INR30-33 billion by FY'28.

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Fundraise plans

  • There is no specific mention of any current or future fundraising through debt or equity in the transcript.
  • The management discusses capex plans of around INR50 crores for the current year and next year each, focused on capacity expansion and automation.
  • For larger generator capacity expansion, investments are planned but exact details and amounts will be shared in 2-3 months.
  • No indication of raising funds through debt or equity has been given; the emphasis is on using retained earnings and internal cash flows for working capital and investments.
  • The company is focused on ramping up production and capacity to meet growing demand within existing financial frameworks.

Order book

Yes
  • Current order book for the Manufacturing segment is INR 19.73 billion.
  • Breakdown includes INR 16.77 billion in the generator business, INR 2.47 billion in railway business, INR 0.20 billion in spares and aftermarket, and INR 0.29 billion from Turkey.
  • Order inflow for the current year is INR 22.38 billion, up 51% from INR 14.78 billion the previous year.
  • Export order inflow (including deemed exports) during the quarter is 80% of total orders, amounting to INR 5.28 billion.
  • Export order inflow for the full year is INR 17.33 billion, a 76% increase from the previous year's INR 9.85 billion.
  • All pending orders, approximately INR 20 billion (INR 2,000 crores), are expected to be executed within the current financial year FY '27.
  • Management anticipates order book growth of 20%-25% in FY '27.

Capex plans

Yes
  • TD Power plans to invest around INR 50 crores in capex this year and a similar amount next year, focused on debottlenecking, adding incremental capacity, and automation to enhance current facilities.
  • This investment is separate from the capex planned for the larger generator business expansion.
  • For large generators, heavy investment is planned to build up rotor manufacturing capacity and large machining capabilities for machines up to 200 MW size.
  • The exact investment amount and business plan details for large generator capex will be disclosed in 2-3 months.
  • The company aims to complete capacity expansion for large generators by calendar year 2027, targeting a major ramp-up from calendar 2028 (FY '29).
  • The expansion aligns with the growing market demand and the company's strategic move into larger capacity generators.

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