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Thaai Casting LtdQ3 FY24

Thaai Casting Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

Yes

Capex

Yes

3 of 5 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Targeting revenue of INR220-225 crores for FY25-26, with conservative estimates around INR190-200 crores due to some delays.
  • Order book of around INR350 crores with INR190-200 crores expected to be executed in the next 12 months.
  • Revenue from wind energy business to start from FY26-27, with capex of INR70-75 crores already underway.
  • Gas nitriding service business started revenue recently, contributing around INR9 crores monthly.
  • Focus on increasing automotive segment revenue from 60% aiming for further growth, while balancing with higher-margin non-automotive segments.
  • Planned scaling in part sizes in auto segment, from current 6 kg parts targeting up to 9 kg parts.
  • Investments planned to support growth over next 5 years, including capex for machinery and robotics for automation.
  • Expansion to exports expected from next year onwards to grow international footprint.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Revenue target for FY 2025-26 is INR 220-225 crores, with a conservative estimate currently at INR 190-200 crores due to delays.
  • EBITDA margin guidance for FY 2025-26 is maintained around 25-27%, with potential to catch up to near 27%.
  • Net profit margins expected to stay stable around 9.89%-11%.
  • Operating margins have decreased from ~29%-30% to ~25% due to a higher share of automotive parts with lower margins.
  • Future growth driven by expansion in automotive passenger vehicle segment (95% focus), wind energy components from FY 2026-27 onwards, and new verticals like gas nitriding services.
  • EPS is expected to grow with increasing revenues; current H1 FY25 EPS is 2.15.
  • Continuous investments in automation, robotics, and capital expenditure (~INR 70-75 crores for wind energy) to support growth and productivity.
  • Working capital and debt expected to increase moderately with expansion but geared towards stable long-term growth.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • Thaai Casting Limited is planning to enhance working capital with a modest increase in debt.
  • Recently requested an additional INR 5 crores from bankers for working capital.
  • Total debt currently is around INR 62 crores; expected to increase by INR 8-10 crores due to new machinery and capex.
  • Post increase, total debt expected to be around INR 77-80 crores by end of FY25.
  • The additional debt is primarily to fund capex for new projects and machinery to support business growth over the next 5 years.
  • No mention of any new equity fundraising plans in the current discussion.
  • Capacity and equipment investments are ongoing, with financing managed through incremental debt and banking facilities.

Order book

Yes
  • The total order book is around INR 350 crores.
  • Orders for the next 12 months are significant but the exact breakup is not specified.
  • INR 154 crores order book is domestic, possibly for passenger and commercial vehicles.
  • An existing INR 220 crores order secured in February is part of the ongoing enhancements, expecting INR 90+ crores from it this year.
  • Order execution timeline spans the next 60 to 80 months, covering 3 to 5 years after production start.
  • Additional orders under negotiation, some LOIs signed, awaiting purchase orders, mostly smaller than INR 150 crores.
  • Strong pipeline from existing customers for model launches of 2026 and 2027.
  • The company expects to complete about INR 125 crores revenue this year and target INR 190 crores next year from the order book.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Capex is ongoing and essential for growth, mainly for upgrading or acquiring new machines to support tougher operations, higher precision, and new business models.
  • Recent investments include machinery like INR1.4 crore secondary operation machines imported from Turkey, expected to start revenue contribution by June-July next year.
  • INR70-75 crore capex planned for wind energy business, with machinery delivery timelines of 15-16 months, installations targeted by September 2025.
  • Gas nitriding vertical has three furnaces; all operational with increasing production and utilization.
  • Robotics implementation is in progress, targeting 30-40% increased automation next year to enhance productivity and reduce manpower.
  • Working capital enhancements planned with additional INR5 crore requested from banks.
  • Overall machinery investments expected to add around INR8-10 crore, supporting business for at least 5 years.
  • New investments are "captive" to specific projects, contributing to incremental revenue and margins.

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