Thomas Cook (India) Ltd

Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Leisure Services

Full Stock Analysis
revenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: No informationcapex: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no explicit mention of any current or planned fundraising through debt or equity in the provided excerpts. - The company continues to remain debt-free, with a healthy cash reserve of about INR 2,000 million (Page 8). - Management dismissed speculation regarding Fairfax bidding for IDBI and any related share sales or fundraising as mere rumors and did not comment on acquisition funding (Page 14). - The firm is investing in expansion and new technology, but this is indicated to be funded through operational means rather than fresh external capital raising (Pages 10, 17). - The focus appears to be on organic growth, portfolio expansion, and margin stability rather than immediate fundraising.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Sterling Holiday Resorts is in an investment and expansion mode, having opened 5 resorts in 2024 so far, with plans to open another 8 to 10 resorts within the rest of the year (Page 3). - The portfolio is expanding by almost 40% with about 20 new resorts and 1,000 keys to be added in the next 12-18 months, targeting a total of 65 resorts from the current 50 (Pages 8, 9, 17). - Investments are being made in leadership and manpower in advance to support this growth (Page 9). - Thomas Cook is investing in new technology expected to go live by the end of the calendar year, involving overlapping costs of old and new systems this year (Page 10). - Expansion in distribution footprint for foreign exchange by 7 new outlets, focusing on Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets to support digital adoption and last-mile fulfillment (Page 4).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Holiday segment revenue grew 21%, led by short-haul (30%), domestic (21%), and long-haul (13%); outbound holidays volume at INR 610 crores (~25% of FY'20 level), with expectation of full recovery in current year. (Page 5) - Forex revenue flat YoY due to Bangalore Airport exit and lower Hajj volumes; excluding these, retail forex revenue grew ~10%. Forex business profitability (EBIT) up 9%. (Pages 12-13) - Digital adoption in forex at 21%; card loads up 13%; distribution footprint expanded in Tier 2/3. (Page 12) - Corporate Travel volumes increased double digits with stable ticket prices. (Page 6) - MICE volumes grew ~20% YoY, forward bookings strong with double-digit growth expected. (Page 6) - Sterling expanding aggressively with 20 new resorts and 1,000 keys planned over 12-18 months; maintaining stable EBITDA margins of 33%-37%. (Pages 8, 17) - Overall forex revenue guided to 10-12% growth; stable margins targeted for travel segments. (Pages 14,17)
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Travel segment expects full recovery to FY '20 levels within the current year, driven by strong short-haul and domestic growth, with margins expanding towards 4.5%-5% in 4-6 quarters (Page 5, 12, 15). - Sterling business is in an investment phase with portfolio expansion of nearly 40%, targeting growth in inventory and resorts (from 50 to 65 resorts), maintaining stable EBITDA margins between 33%-37% (Page 8, 9, 17). - Forex business revenue growth guided at 10%-12%, with EBIT margin expected around 40%-45%, reflecting profitable expansion and digital adoption (Page 4, 5, 13, 14). - Overall consolidated PBT grew 17% YoY; incomes up 11%, with productivity benefits and diverse revenue streams supporting resilience (Page 3,4). - Technology investments in travel business cause short-term costs but expected to drive strong medium-term growth (Page 10). - Forward bookings and volume growth in travel indicate a robust outlook for next 6 months and beyond (Page 5, 12, 15).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Forward bookings for the Travel segment look fairly strong, indicating robust demand. - Short-haul and domestic volumes in forward bookings are trending in double-digit growth. - Long-haul bookings are picking up but remain softer, expected to concentrate more towards the winter season. - MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) forward bookings indicate close to double-digit growth, reflecting strong corporate demand. - Sterling business is expanding with a strong pipeline of 20 new resorts and over 1,000 keys to be launched progressively in the next 12 to 15 months. - New resorts in Rajasthan (5 in Q1) contributed to expected wedding business ramp-up. - Overall, confident of near full recovery to pre-COVID levels in the current financial year, supported by strong forward order visibility.