Thomas Cook (India) Ltd
Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Leisure Services
revenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: No informationcapex: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- There is no explicit mention of any current or planned fundraising through debt or equity in the provided excerpts.
- The company continues to remain debt-free, with a healthy cash reserve of about INR 2,000 million (Page 8).
- Management dismissed speculation regarding Fairfax bidding for IDBI and any related share sales or fundraising as mere rumors and did not comment on acquisition funding (Page 14).
- The firm is investing in expansion and new technology, but this is indicated to be funded through operational means rather than fresh external capital raising (Pages 10, 17).
- The focus appears to be on organic growth, portfolio expansion, and margin stability rather than immediate fundraising.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Sterling Holiday Resorts is in an investment and expansion mode, having opened 5 resorts in 2024 so far, with plans to open another 8 to 10 resorts within the rest of the year (Page 3).
- The portfolio is expanding by almost 40% with about 20 new resorts and 1,000 keys to be added in the next 12-18 months, targeting a total of 65 resorts from the current 50 (Pages 8, 9, 17).
- Investments are being made in leadership and manpower in advance to support this growth (Page 9).
- Thomas Cook is investing in new technology expected to go live by the end of the calendar year, involving overlapping costs of old and new systems this year (Page 10).
- Expansion in distribution footprint for foreign exchange by 7 new outlets, focusing on Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets to support digital adoption and last-mile fulfillment (Page 4).
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Holiday segment revenue grew 21%, led by short-haul (30%), domestic (21%), and long-haul (13%); outbound holidays volume at INR 610 crores (~25% of FY'20 level), with expectation of full recovery in current year. (Page 5)
- Forex revenue flat YoY due to Bangalore Airport exit and lower Hajj volumes; excluding these, retail forex revenue grew ~10%. Forex business profitability (EBIT) up 9%. (Pages 12-13)
- Digital adoption in forex at 21%; card loads up 13%; distribution footprint expanded in Tier 2/3. (Page 12)
- Corporate Travel volumes increased double digits with stable ticket prices. (Page 6)
- MICE volumes grew ~20% YoY, forward bookings strong with double-digit growth expected. (Page 6)
- Sterling expanding aggressively with 20 new resorts and 1,000 keys planned over 12-18 months; maintaining stable EBITDA margins of 33%-37%. (Pages 8, 17)
- Overall forex revenue guided to 10-12% growth; stable margins targeted for travel segments. (Pages 14,17)
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Travel segment expects full recovery to FY '20 levels within the current year, driven by strong short-haul and domestic growth, with margins expanding towards 4.5%-5% in 4-6 quarters (Page 5, 12, 15).
- Sterling business is in an investment phase with portfolio expansion of nearly 40%, targeting growth in inventory and resorts (from 50 to 65 resorts), maintaining stable EBITDA margins between 33%-37% (Page 8, 9, 17).
- Forex business revenue growth guided at 10%-12%, with EBIT margin expected around 40%-45%, reflecting profitable expansion and digital adoption (Page 4, 5, 13, 14).
- Overall consolidated PBT grew 17% YoY; incomes up 11%, with productivity benefits and diverse revenue streams supporting resilience (Page 3,4).
- Technology investments in travel business cause short-term costs but expected to drive strong medium-term growth (Page 10).
- Forward bookings and volume growth in travel indicate a robust outlook for next 6 months and beyond (Page 5, 12, 15).
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Forward bookings for the Travel segment look fairly strong, indicating robust demand.
- Short-haul and domestic volumes in forward bookings are trending in double-digit growth.
- Long-haul bookings are picking up but remain softer, expected to concentrate more towards the winter season.
- MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) forward bookings indicate close to double-digit growth, reflecting strong corporate demand.
- Sterling business is expanding with a strong pipeline of 20 new resorts and over 1,000 keys to be launched progressively in the next 12 to 15 months.
- New resorts in Rajasthan (5 in Q1) contributed to expected wedding business ramp-up.
- Overall, confident of near full recovery to pre-COVID levels in the current financial year, supported by strong forward order visibility.
