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Vardhman Special Steels LtdQ1 FY25

Vardhman Special Steels Ltd Q1 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 279P/E: 22.2Market Cap: ₹2.7K CrSector: Industrial Products

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

Yes

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 4 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Targeting 225,000 tons sales volume in FY '26, a marginal increase limited by current rolling mill capacity.
  • Bigger jump to 250,000 tons volume planned for FY '26-'27 as capacity expansions stabilize.
  • New plant expected to start contributing from FY '28-'29 with potential to increase capacity and product size range.
  • No new product launch but minor variations and chemistry changes expected to meet customer requirements.
  • Export mix currently low (~5%), with no significant increase forecasted in near term.
  • Expectation of good traction from Maruti Suzuki and Toyota post Aichi tie-up, with import substitution opportunities.
  • Long-term domestic alloy steel market expected to grow from ~4 million tons to 10 million tons over 10 years, presenting growth opportunities.
  • Cost-saving initiatives (e.g., solar power plant) to improve EBITDA, supporting revenue growth.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • FY '25 sales volume was 215,000 tons with EBITDA per ton around INR 8,200 within a target range of INR 7,000 to 10,000.
  • For FY '26, production target is about 225,000 tons, with marginal capacity increase due to rolling mill limits.
  • Significant capacity expansion planned for FY '26-'27 targeting 250,000 tons.
  • New greenfield plant expected to start production in FY '28-'29, with capacity expansion up to 130 mm diameter steel (currently max 90 mm).
  • EBITDA per ton for existing plant targeted to improve to INR 8,000 to 11,000 in FY '26-'27.
  • New plant profitability expected to be comparable to existing plant at full capacity.
  • Cost savings from solar power plant (commissioned in FY '25) will enhance EBITDA.
  • Outsourcing to reduce significantly by '26-'27, improving EBITDA per kg.
  • Export growth forecasts revised down; focus remains on domestic automotive OEMs.
  • Overall, moderate volume growth and improved efficiency expected to drive better earnings over the next 2-3 years.

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Fundraise plans

Yes
  • Vardhman Special Steels plans to finance the new greenfield plant (INR 2,000 crores capex) through a mix of equity and debt.
  • The company has already engaged with at least 3 banks that have expressed support for loans related to this project.
  • Equity issuance is expected in due course as part of the funding strategy.
  • The company's partners at some stage will increase their stake, which will serve as one source of funding.
  • The promoter may also contribute equity if required.
  • If additional funds are needed, the company may consider a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) as another funding option.
  • No specific timeline given for the equity issuance or debt drawdown, but land purchase and project approvals are expected in the next 2-3 months.

Order book

  • Vardhman Special Steels is currently in the development queue for new products, especially with foreign companies like Maruti Suzuki and Toyota, following their partnership with Aichi Steel.
  • Orders from these customers are expected to start coming in from the next fiscal year.
  • The company aims to capitalize on import substitution opportunities with these OEMs.
  • No specific current order book size is disclosed in the call.
  • The new greenfield plant's production is expected to start by FY'29-'30, suggesting the orderbook growth tied to that project will materialize later.
  • The company is optimistic about expanding business and increasing orders over time, though precise pending orders data is not provided.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Completing reheating furnace capex (~INR 55-60 crores) by December FY'26 to reach 250,000 tons rolling mill capacity; no major further capex on existing plant after this.
  • Left-out capex for FY'26 and FY'27 including rolling mill equipment, non-destructive testing line, R&D equipment, environmental expenses totaling INR 175 crores.
  • Planned greenfield plant investment of about INR 2,000 crores in Punjab targeted to start production by FY'29-30, featuring green steel and solar power for a lower carbon footprint.
  • Greenfield plant funded through a mix of equity and debt, with partners expected to increase stake; land purchase completion expected in next 2-3 months.
  • Implementation of Kocks block at existing plant to improve quality, reduce inventory, and increase rolling mill capacity.
  • Solar power plant commissioning planned for current year to cover 40-45% of power demand, aiding cost savings.

How does Vardhman Special Steels Ltd rank vs peers in Industrial Products?

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1Vardhman Special Steels Ltd
Rev 3Mar 3

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