Wheels India Ltd

Q1 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 2orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Currently, there is no plan for raising capital specifically for debt reduction. - Management prefers to raise capital only for major expansion rather than for purely reducing debt. - Free cash flows are being used to manage capex and debt levels. - The company managed to reduce debt by about INR 47 crores in FY24 and aims to maintain or possibly reduce debt further in FY25 through working capital optimization and cash flow improvements. - Interest costs are expected to remain stable with no assumption of rate changes. - A suggestion for QIP or rights issues to repay debt was acknowledged but currently not planned.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company expects single-digit revenue growth in FY25, potentially higher if the market strengthens post-monsoon (Page 9). - Export growth is expected but somewhat back-ended, with significant platforms coming only in Q4 of the year (Page 9). - Capex of INR 200 crores planned for next year aims to support volume growth, with around 12 months gestation before impacting sales (Pages 8-9, 13). - Machining of large castings and aluminum wheels are key areas of capacity ramp-up to drive growth (Pages 8, 17). - Growth aligned with adjacent casting manufacturer’s capacity, possibly close to doubling capacity in 2-3 years (Page 17). - Domestic market growth is moderate; segments like commercial vehicles, agriculture tractors, and air suspension show potential, with back-ended double-digit growth possible (Pages 6, 16). - The alloy wheels division targets volume to increase from ~23,000 wheels/month to ~40,000 wheels/month by next March (Page 7).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects a flattish to single-digit revenue growth in FY25; stronger growth possible post-monsoon. - Export growth is expected to be flat in FY25, with significant new export business coming only in the fourth quarter, feeding more into FY26. - Industrial segments like machining of large castings and hydraulic cylinders are projected to grow around 20%. - Operating margin is currently around 7%-8% and sustainable at that level; aspiration to reach 9% margin is noted but timeline is unclear. - Profitability improvements are anticipated from better product mix, stronger margin segments (machining, earthmover wheels, hydraulic cylinders), and cost control (manpower and energy costs). - Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) target is around 15%, with a longer-term aspiration to reach closer to 18%. - Debt reduction and improving profitability are levers to enhance earnings; free cash flow is expected to cover planned capex. - New business segments like aluminium wheels and hydraulic cylinders are expected to contribute meaningfully to growth.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company is not aggressively participating in government tenders due to discomfort with the system. - They are working on becoming a qualified supplier for multinational companies like Alstom, targeting the metro system segment. - A meaningful revenue contribution from this segment is expected in about two years if successful. - The domestic wind energy market is currently flat with slow traction, with growth expected only from customer pipelines being realized after a lead time. - Export orders in windmill and offshore platforms are ramping up but expected to impact mainly FY26. - Export business growth is expected mostly in the fourth quarter, contributing to FY26 volume. - The company has a flattish to single-digit growth revenue outlook for the coming year, with potential upside if markets post-monsoon are stronger. - Subsidiary losses are coming down with a plan to achieve breakeven by the end of the year.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Last year (FY24) capex was INR 140 crores; plan for FY25 is slightly more than INR 200 crores, and a similar amount for FY26. - Capex covers multiple segments: commercial vehicles, construction, agriculture tractor, hydraulic cylinders, machining of castings, and aluminum wheels. - Paint plant and foundry capacities are currently adequate; future investments may be needed beyond FY26. - Significant capex includes machining of large castings and aluminum wheels, with a typical gestation period of about 12 months before revenue impact. - Expansion of alloy wheel capacity is ongoing, targeting increase from ~23,000 wheels/month to 40,000 wheels/month by March next year. - Plans aligned with a large casting manufacturer’s capacity ramp-up, anticipating nearly doubling capacity in 2-3 years. - Capex will be funded through free cash flow, with some prioritization based on project needs; debt expected to remain stable or reduce through working capital optimization.