Wheels India Ltd

Q3 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

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Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Yesrevenue: Category 5margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Export markets (Europe, US) are currently slowing with volume drops; new product introductions delayed by 1-2 quarters. - Agriculture tractor exports are down globally (~30% decline), but India remains stable; Q4 expected to be strong due to harvest season. - Domestic commercial vehicle (CV) segment showed a mixed trend: good Q1, weak Q2; Q4 likely to see improvement. - Passenger vehicle demand remains to be confirmed post-Diwali, but annual targets seem achievable. - New product focus areas include hydraulic cylinders and construction equipment, with longer gestation (beyond FY25). - Overall FY25 revenues expected to be slightly lower than FY24; first-half results indicative of the year's trajectory. - Plans to expand machining of large windmill castings and agriculture tractor components to capture future growth. - Margins expected to stabilize with cautious optimism for gradual demand recovery in H2 and FY26.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Profitability has improved with net profit rising to INR21.92 crores in Q2 FY25 from INR5.24 crores last year, aided by favorable product mix and productivity improvements. - Margins have stabilized despite softening demand; EBITDA margins are expected to be maintained going forward barring sharp steel price rise. - Export revenues may decline this fiscal due to global slowdown but expected to grow next year with new product introductions. - Domestic commercial vehicle demand is weak; slight improvement expected in Q4, while agriculture tractor segment may see a strong Q4 due to good monsoons. - Capex of INR225 crores targeted at margin improvement projects (windmill castings, agriculture wheels, hydraulic cylinders) to support growth. - Interest cost to rise due to withdrawal of 2% packing credit subvention, but efforts to improve credit rating and reduce interest costs over 2 years are underway. - Long-term focus on sustaining profit growth and gradually improving credit rating, with cautious optimism on economic recovery affecting earnings.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company is working on some export programs expected to translate into revenue by Q4, though some have been delayed by one or two quarters due to customers reducing schedules and extending inventory depletion timelines. - Export reduction is expected in the current fiscal due to global market slowdown, especially in agriculture tractors and commercial vehicles. - Domestic demand is muted in commercial vehicles; however, a strong Q4 is anticipated driven by the harvest season boosting tractor demand. - The company is expanding in machining of large windmill castings in partnership with a large multinational casting manufacturer increasing from 25,000 tons to 45,000 tons annually over the next couple of years, which should increase volumes. - Introduction of new products in exports, especially in hydraulic cylinders, is expected within one year, although some construction-related products may take until FY '26 or FY '27 for volumes to materialize. - Overall, order book is stable with some delays, and future growth is expected as new product cycles mature.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No explicit mention of any new fundraising through debt or equity in the current call. - Gross debt as of September 2024 stands around INR 700 crores, with components including long-term debt, working capital, and public deposits. - Management expects debt levels to potentially reduce going forward due to improved profitability, unless new investment opportunities arise. - Capex of INR 225 crores planned for FY25 focused on machining windmill castings, agriculture wheels, hydraulic cylinders, mainly funded through internal accruals. - No indication of immediate plans for equity raising. - The company is focused on improving credit rating to reduce interest costs over 1-2 years but no immediate new borrowings highlighted.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Current year capex increased from INR 200 crores to INR 225 crores. - Major capex areas include: - Machining of large windmill castings (around INR 40 crores). - Balancing equipment for cast aluminium (about INR 30 crores). - Agriculture tractor segment (around INR 40-50 crores). - Hydraulic cylinders (approximately INR 15 crores). - Some capex focused on reducing material preparation costs through make-or-buy decisions. - Current alloy capacity at 40,000 tons per year, with incremental increase of 10,000 tons per month by year-end (primarily de-bottlenecking). - FY '26 capex is uncertain; no specific guidance provided. - Capex aims not just at expansion but also at improving margins. - Management working toward credit rating improvement which may lower future interest costs, possibly over 2 years.