Alpex Solar Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Analysis

- Alpex Solar aims to exceed its revenue guidance of Rs. 3,000 crores for FY27, boosted by the upcoming 2.2 GW cell line becoming operational within 90 days. - The company targets to grow module capacity from 2.4 GW in FY26 to around 3.6 GW in FY27, with plans to further expand to 5 or 5.5 GW in coming years. - Long-term focus includes backward integration into wafer, ingot, and glass manufacturing with 5 GW capacity targeted around FY30. - The 2.2 GW cell capacity is expected to generate about Rs. 1,350 crores revenue from 1 GW at current TOPCon cell prices. - EBITDA margins on cell business projected around 35%, with company-level EBITDA expected around 25%. - Overall, Alpex envisions rapid growth fueled by government policies favoring domestic manufacturing and solar's increasing adoption as the least-cost, reliable power source in India.

- Revenue for FY27 is guided to exceed Rs. 3,000 crores, surpassing previous guidance due to the upcoming 2.2 GW TOPCon solar cell line operational within 90 days. - The company expects significant EBITDA margin improvement post backward integration, targeting approximately 25% EBITDA and over 16% PAT margins from the cell business. - With the planned expansions (5 GW glass line and 5 GW ingot and wafer line by FY30), long-term growth looks strong, aiming at Rs.10,000 crores revenue by 2029-30. - PAT has shown a remarkable 54x growth over four years and EBITDA margins expanded from 6.5% to nearly 15%. - The company's cash accrual-funded CAPEX and vertical integration strategy aim to sustain steady margin expansion and profitability. - Migration to the main board is expected by February 2027, reflecting business maturation. - Overall, Alpex Solar projects consistent growth in earnings driven by technology upgrades, backward integration, and policy support.

- Setting up a 2.2 GW TOPCon solar cell manufacturing line in Kosi, Uttar Pradesh, operational within the next 90 days. - Planning a 5 GW solar glass manufacturing line targeted for FY2030. - Planning a 5 GW wafer and ingot manufacturing facility expected around 2029-30. - A 200 MW pilot wafer and ingot project planned to be operational by April 2027 to absorb technology. - 2.5 GW manufacturing capacity of ingot and wafer to be operational by June 2028, with further expansions to follow. - Expanding aluminum frame capacity from current 12,000 MT to double or triple within the year using internal accruals. - Cell and module capacity expansions anticipated beyond the current 3.6 GW module line, potentially to 5-5.5 GW with newer technology. - CAPEX for wafer and ingot (2.5 GW and further 2.5 GW) is under finalization; initial phases funded through internal accruals without loans.

- No explicit mention of immediate or current new fundraising through debt or equity in the provided pages. - Ashwani Sehgal mentioned that the initial phase of wafer and ingot manufacturing (trial phase) is being funded entirely through internal accruals without any loan. - For future expansion phases (2.5 GW wafer and ingot manufacturing), they are in an advanced stage of finalizing numbers but have not disclosed specific funding plans yet. - The company plans to announce detailed information about CAPEX and fundraising in the public domain soon. - No mention of planned equity dilution or further debt funding as of now.

- Current order book stands at around Rs. 1,900 crores. - The company is deliberately not taking more orders currently to focus on capitalizing on the cell business. - Guidance for FY27 order book is approximately Rs. 3,000 crores based on old estimates. - The cell line becoming operational is expected to add significantly to the order book. - The company anticipates surpassing previous guidance if good orders are received along with contributions from the new cell line.