Alpex Solar Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Analysis

- Revenue target for FY27 is guided at Rs. 3,000 crores, with expectations to exceed this due to the new 2.2 GW solar cell line becoming operational within 90 days. - Module capacity is increasing from 2.4 GW in FY26 to approximately 3.6 GW for the full year FY27. - Plans to further expand module and cell capacities beyond 3.6 GW post FY27, possibly to 5-5.5 GW, depending on evolving technology decisions. - Backward integration into wafer and ingot manufacturing is planned with a 5 GW capacity expected around 2029-30, strengthening vertical integration. - Pilot 200 MW wafer and ingot project to be operational by April 2027, with 2.5 GW capacity expected by June 2028. - Consistent historical growth with 11.44x revenue increase over four years and ambition to continue rapid scaling in coming years.

- Alpex Solar expects strong future growth driven by expanding backward integration into wafer, ingot, and glass manufacturing by FY30. - Revenue guidance for FY27 is Rs.3,000 crores with expectations to surpass this with the new 2.2 GW cell line operational within 90 days. - EBITDA margins for the cell business are targeted around 35%, with company-wide EBITDA expected at ~25% once cell and module businesses are integrated. - PAT on cell business is anticipated above 16%, with overall profits growing strongly alongside revenues. - The company aims for sustained growth leading to a Rs.10,000 crores revenue mark by FY29-30. - Long-term, the full backward integration and technology adoption will insulate earnings from global price fluctuations. - EPS growth has been robust with PAT up 2.41x YoY; future EPS to rise in line with operating profit growth as capacities scale.

- Alpex Solar is investing internally (using internal accruals) in a pilot 200 MW wafer and ingot manufacturing project to absorb technology, operational by April 2027. - Plans to set up 2.5 GW of ingot and wafer manufacturing capacity by June 2028, with the balance expansion to 5 GW by FY2030. - Setting up a 5 GW solar glass manufacturing facility by FY2030. - Expanding aluminum frames capacity from 12,000 MT to at least double or triple within the current fiscal year through internal accruals. - Developing a 2.2 GW integrated TOPCon solar cell manufacturing line in Kosi, Uttar Pradesh, expected to be fully operational within 90 days. - Considering future expansion of module capacity from current 3.6 GW to possibly 5-5.5 GW with latest technology. - No current plans for loans or external borrowing; all initial capex funded via internal accruals. - Final capex numbers for phases 2 and 3 of wafer and ingot line are being finalized and will be disclosed publicly soon.

- The company plans to fund its 1st phase of wafer and ingot manufacturing (trial/experimental phase) through internal accruals, with no loans or external borrowing involved. - For the 2nd and 3rd phases (additional 2.5 GW + 2.5 GW capacity), they are in the advanced stages of finalizing numbers but have not shared specific details yet. - No explicit mention of new fundraising plans via debt or equity was made during the discussion. - The expansion of aluminum frames capacity will be funded through internal accruals only. - The company is focused on leveraging internal resources rather than external borrowing for its near-term expansion plans.

- Current order book stands at approximately Rs. 1,900 crores. - The company is deliberately not taking many new orders to focus on capitalizing on the cell business. - Guidance for the fiscal year 2027 (FY27) is around Rs. 3,000 crores in order book value. - With the upcoming cell line operationalization, order book size and revenues are expected to surpass current guidance. - Orders are a mix of fixed price and cell plus, with strengthening prices expected due to policy implementations like ALMM List-II from June 1, 2026.