Ashiana Housing Ltd Q4 FY25 Earnings Analysis

- Ashiana Housing expects to consume its entire stock (11 lakh sqft unsold, 48 lakh sqft future phases, 25 lakh sqft land bank) by 2030, driving growth. - Incremental sales target is Rs. 11,000-12,000 crores with profits of Rs. 2,000 crores over next five years, implying ~18-19% PAT margins. - Revenue trend shows growth: ~Rs. 1,300 crores in next year, Rs. 1,700+ crores in following years driven by new project deliveries. - New launches planned: Aaroham (Gurgaon), Amaya, Jaisingpura, and potential one among Bangalore/Jaipur parcels aiming for H2 FY '26. - Operating leverage and better project mix (increased senior living offerings) expected to improve margins and profitability. - Sales volumes remain robust with 6.77 lakh sqft booked in Q3 FY '25; pre-sales for 9 months at Rs. 1,362 crores, up 45.56% YoY. - Market normalizing in Gurgaon, sales stable across other regions; sustainable price increases factored mostly via inflation going forward.

- Ashiana Housing expects cumulative profits of Rs 2,000 crores over the next five years up to FY '30. - This translates to an average PAT margin of 18-19% and EBITDA margins of nearly 30%. - Margins are poised to improve due to operating leverage as fixed costs stay stable while revenues increase. - Future profits are expected to benefit from improved pricing realized from land purchased in high-value periods (2021-22). - Growth assumes the full consumption of 11 lakh sq. ft. unsold stock, 48 lakh sq. ft. in future phases, and 25 lakh sq. ft. of land bank by 2030. - New project launches planned for FY '26 (Aaroham, Amaya, Jaisingpura, plus one more) should boost earnings. - FY '26 onwards are expected to witness significant margin expansion backed by better-margin project deliveries. - Stability in market pricing and sales velocity is assumed with moderate price increases aligned with inflation, not extraordinary hikes.

- Ashiana Housing is actively working on acquiring new land parcels as part of its growth strategy: - Executed an agreement for a 20-acre parcel in Jaipur (20+ lakh sq ft), pending regulatory clearances. - In talks for an additional 7-8 lakh sq ft land parcel, likely also in Jaipur. - Advancing a land deal in Bangalore (10-12 lakh sq ft), awaiting landlord and regulatory approvals. - Plans to launch three projects in the next financial year: Aaroham (Gurgaon), a project in Jaisingpura (Jaipur), and the Jamshedpur parcel. - Intends to launch at least one of the three potential projects under negotiation (Jaipur, Bangalore, another location) in the next financial year. - Delay in Ashiana Aaroham launch (moved to Q2/Q3 FY26) due to regulatory changes requiring redesign of building plans. - Overall land bank planned to be consumed and developed by 2030 for sustained revenue and profit growth.

- There is no explicit mention of any current or future fundraising through debt or equity in the provided transcript. - The company is focusing on project launches and land acquisitions (e.g., in Bangalore, Jaipur) rather than discussing fundraising plans. - Discussions mainly revolve around sales, project launches, inventory, and regulatory updates. - No direct references to raising capital via debt or equity were made during the Q&A or management commentary. - The emphasis appears to be on utilizing existing resources, land bank, pre-sales, and operational cash flows for growth and project execution.

- Ashiana Housing Limited currently has around 11 lakh square feet of unsold stock in ongoing projects. - There is about 48 lakh square feet in future phases and around 25 lakh square feet of land bank as of now. - The company aims to consume its entire stock (unsold, future phases, and land bank) by 2030. - They expect to acquire 7-8 million square feet in the next 5 years, targeting sales of Rs. 11,000-12,000 crores and profits of Rs. 2,000 crores. - Upcoming project launches include Aaroham (expected early H2 FY ’26), Amaya, and Jaisingpura, with an additional project from ongoing talks (Bangalore or Jaipur). - A deal in Bangalore is progressing but awaits landlord land approvals. - Launch of Ashiana Amarah Phase-5 is expected shortly (within two weeks of the call date in February 2025). - Focus on refilling land bank to maintain a run rate of 40-50 lakh square feet annually through new acquisitions and launches.