Ashoka Buildcon Ltd Q4 FY25 Earnings Analysis

- Revenue growth guidance for FY'26 is around 10%, revised down from an earlier 15% estimate due to delayed project starts caused by land acquisition and forest clearance issues. (Page 7, 9) - Growth is expected to accelerate in FY'27, particularly in the second half, as current projects reach full execution and new orders convert into business. (Page 7, 9) - Order inflows for FY'26 are expected to be between INR 10,000 to 12,000 crores across roads, railways, power, and other infrastructure sectors. (Page 7, 13) - MoRTH and NHAI pipelines total approximately INR 75,000 to 100,000 crores; railway bidding pipeline is INR 25,000 to 30,000 crores; power sector project pipelines are INR 10,000 to 15,000 crores. (Page 13) - Topline growth in Q1-Q2 FY'26 is muted, with significant pick-up anticipated in Q3-Q4. (Page 7)

- Revenue growth guidance for FY'26 has been revised to around 10%, down from an earlier 15% guidance, due to delay in project starts (land acquisition, forest clearance). (Page 7, 8, 14) - Growth to pick up strongly in H2 FY'26 and especially in FY'27 as more projects reach full execution. (Page 7) - EBITDA margins expected to improve to around 10%-10.5% in FY'26 supported by new order book mix. (Pages 12, 14) - Standalone entity expected to generate positive operating cash flows in FY'26, excluding asset monetization. (Page 12) - Order inflows expected in the range of INR 10,000-12,000 crores in FY'26 across roads, railways, and power segments. (Pages 13, 14) - Asset monetization proceeds and reduction in debt will reduce finance costs substantially from FY'26 onwards, supporting profitability. (Pages 16, 17) - Overall, sustainable EPC business focusing on highways, railways, power, and buildings expected to drive steady long-term growth. (Page 5)

- The company’s CAPEX target for FY'26 is around Rs. 200 crores across all segments (Page 14). - Pending equity infusion in HAM projects stands at approximately Rs. 67 crores, including Rs. 225 crores for the recently won Bowaichandi project (Page 14). - Planned equity infusion in HAM projects is Rs. 250 crores in FY'25-26 and Rs. 112 crores thereafter (Page 14). - The focus remains on maintaining a sustainable EPC business across highways, railways, power transmission & distribution, and buildings (Page 6). - No explicit mention of one-time strategic investments, but management is open to sharing surplus cash with investors and for new business (Page 13).

- No explicit mention of any immediate or planned new fundraising through debt or equity was made in the call. - Debt levels are expected to remain similar in the near term, assuming current turnover and capital cycle estimates. - Asset monetization (BOT and HAM projects) will reduce consolidated debt substantially by Rs. 4,000-5,000 crore by FY'26 end, which will consequently reduce finance costs. - Standalone debt post-monetization is expected to be substantially low (Rs. 200-300 crore range), with potential for surplus. - The company expects positive cash flows from operations in FY'26 without needing additional equity infusion. - There is no indication of planned equity fundraising; however, cash on balance sheet may be used for sharing with investors or new business. - Discussions on debt reduction are tied closely to ongoing asset monetizations rather than new debt raising.

- As of March 31, 2025, the balance order book stands at INR 14,905 crores (excluding INR 795 crores of orders received post-March 31, 2025). - Order book breakup: - Roads and Railways: INR 10,867 crores (~72.9% of total) - HAM projects: INR 1,859 crores - EPC road projects: INR 8,688 crores - Railway: INR 320 crores - Power T&D: INR 3,618 crores (~24.3%) - EPC buildings: INR 420 crores (~2.8%) - New orders received: - Maharashtra State Electricity Transmission Co.: INR 311.92 crores (400/220 kVA substation) - Central Railway (gauge conversion & ROBs): INR 568.86 crores - Target order intake for FY'26: INR 10,000 to 12,000 crores across roads, railways, and other infrastructure. - Pipeline includes MoRTH, NHAI (INR 75,000 to 1 lakh crores), railways (INR 25,000 to 30,000 crores), power (INR 10,000 to 15,000 crores), and other sectors.