Genus Power Infrastructures Ltd Q1 FY27 Earnings Analysis

- Total order book stands at approximately INR25,173 crores net of taxes, providing strong long-term revenue visibility. - Large executable order book conversion expected to drive revenue growth. - FY27 revenue guidance: INR6,000 crores to INR6,500 crores, driven by rollout intensity and ongoing projects. - Industry size: Estimated requirement of around 31-32 crore smart meters in India; only ~15.6 crore have been tendered so far, indicating significant growth runway. - Expect tenders of around 9 crore meters in FY27 plus more in subsequent years. - Confident to maintain current market share (~22-23% as AMISP, >30% in meter manufacturing). - Expansion into adjacent segments like smart gas meters (INR35,000 crores industry over next 3-4 years) and smart water meters with potential for significant future revenues. - Export market focus with revenue target of INR500 crores in next 2-3 years. - Increased installations under RDSS with 3.61 crore meters OGL and 24 ongoing projects generating recurring revenue.

- FY27 revenue guidance: INR 6,000 - 6,500 crores, driven by increased project rollouts and order book conversion. - EBITDA margin expected to moderate to ~18% in FY27 due to raw material cost pressures (from 20.3% in FY26). - EBITDA in FY26 grew 104% YoY to INR 960 crores; PAT grew 106% YoY to INR 605 crores with 12.8% PAT margin. - Positive cash flow from operations anticipated by early FY28; improving quarterly cash flows in FY27. - Continued scale-up with smart meter installations over 1 crore meters in FY26; additional 9 crore meter tenders expected in FY27. - Long-term sustainable annuity revenue model from 24 AMISP projects operational with multi-year concession periods. - Maintain market share (~22-23% AMISP, >30% meter manufacturing) amidst selective and return-focused bidding. - Expect margin pressures but confident in managing cost impacts given 25 years' experience and operational efficiencies.

- Current FY27 capex guidance: No major capex expected; only small regular capex of around INR 10-20 crores for routine items like dies and molds (Page 7). - Investment in Joint Venture Platform (Gemstar): - As of FY26, Genus invested approximately INR 487 crores including loans and equity in the platform (Page 12). - Expected additional investment of INR 600-700 crores in the JV platform over next 2 years (FY27 and FY28, and Q1 FY29) (Page 5). - Strategic investments and growth areas: - Focus on smart gas meters, water meters, and exports alongside core smart metering business (Page 5). - Gas metering market opportunity estimated at INR 35,000-36,000 crores over next 3-4 years (Page 5). - Water metering expected to emerge as a significant long-term opportunity domestically and globally (Page 5). - Potential increase in net debt (up to INR 1,900-2,000 crores) partly due to investments in JV/platforms (Page 16).

- Current net debt stands at around INR1,500 crores. - Peak net debt is expected to reach between INR1,900 crores to INR2,000 crores, mainly due to investments in platforms and business growth. - Investments of INR600-700 crores are planned in the joint venture platform over FY27, FY28, and Q1 FY29. - Additional debt may be raised to support these investments and operational needs. - No mention of any new equity fundraising in the disclosed discussion. - Company aims to improve cash flows progressively, expecting positive cash flow from operations by FY28. - Debt is primarily short-term loans which are expected to reduce from FY28 onwards.

- Current order book stands at approximately INR 25,000 crores. - Out of this, around INR 23,000 crores is from the platform, split into: - INR 16,000 crores for CAPEX. - The remaining for OPEX. - The order book is expected to complete over the next 2 to 2.5 years. - Large tender pipeline ahead with approximately 9 crore smart meters expected to be tendered in FY27. - Total smart meter market size is around 31-32 crore consumers; about 15 crore meters already tendered, with 7 crore installed. - Roughly 24-25 crore smart meters remain to be installed in India. - The company expects to maintain a market share consistent with historical levels (~22-23% as AMISP, 30%+ as meter manufacturer). - Additional investments of INR 600-700 crores planned in JV platforms over FY27 and FY28.