Goodluck India Ltd Q4 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- FY'26 revenue growth guidance remains at 15%-20%, expected to improve in FY'27. - Solar tracker tubes revenue projected to increase from INR400 crores this year to INR600-650 crores next financial year. - Defense artillery shells capacity expansion from 150,000 to 400,000 shells per annum, with revenues expected to start from Q1 FY'27, contributing around INR300-350 crores by FY'27. - Combined defense and aerospace business projected to generate INR900-1,000 crores revenue at full capacity, with artillery shells around INR800 crores and aerospace INR200 crores. - Standalone business expected to grow at 15%-20% in FY'27, including defense revenues. - Value-added product mix targeted to increase from 56-60% currently to 60-65% in the near future. - Capacity utilization for hydraulic tubes expected to rise from 40-45% to 60-65% over next two quarters. - Focus on high-margin, value-added products and defense to drive margin expansion and sustainable growth.

- FY'27 growth expected to be 15% to 20% including defense business. - Defense artillery shells project revenue to start from Q1 FY'27; full capacity revenue potential of INR800 crores (shells) + INR200 crores (aerospace) planned by FY'28. - EBITDA margins in aerospace expected at 28% to 32%, potentially improving. - Standalone EBITDA margin expected to increase due to improved product and market mix; defense addition to further boost consolidated EBITDA. - INR60-70 crores revenue expected from shell business in Q4 FY'26, contributing positively to EBITDA and PAT. - Pass-through for steel price increases with lag in conventional segments; defense segment less impacted. - Company aims at bottom-line growth over volume; higher value-added product mix to improve margins. - Earnings per share for 9 months FY'26 at INR37.40, showing growth momentum.

- Capex incurred till December 31, FY'26: INR186 crores; expected capex in Q4 FY'26: ~INR30 crores. - Total capex for augmenting defense artillery shell capacity from 150,000 to 400,000 shells: ~INR400-500 crores. - Financing mix for this capex: ~60% equity (internal accruals) and 40% loan. - Additional capex planned for aerospace critical forging parts (timeline under working). - No specific capex figures announced for FY'27 and FY'28; maintenance capex and new plant capacity augmentations under evaluation. - Management prioritizes defense and aerospace expansion, alongside strengthening high-margin value-added products. - Capex focused on scaling defense operations, increasing value addition, and expanding capacity in sunrise sectors like defense and solar structures.

- For the defense artillery shells capacity augmentation (INR400 crores capex), the financing mix will be approximately: - 60% equity (including internal accruals) - 40% bank loans (debt) - The company plans to finance part of the INR400 crores capex through a mix of internal accruals (equity) and debt. - No specific mention of raising fresh equity beyond this or any new fundraising announcement. - Management intends to continue investing significantly in defense and aerospace segments but has not disclosed additional fundraising plans as of now.

- The company has order visibility for the next 1 to 1.5 years in its infrastructure division. - For the automobile division, order visibility extends for the next two quarters, with the final two quarters generally being strong. - The defense and aerospace segment has strong structural demand with confirmed orders and Letters of Intent (LOIs) available for the next two years. - The defense subsidiary is currently booked for the next financial year with eight months of orders secured and LOIs for two years. - The company is confident about capturing emerging opportunities domestically and in exports, supported by healthy fiscal support and recovering market sentiment.