Indian Oil Corporation Ltd Q3 FY26 Earnings Analysis

- Sales volumes improved in H1 FY ’25-’26 to 50.590 MMT from 48.213 MMT in H1 FY ’24-’25. - Expect significant performance improvement in Q3 and Q4 of FY ’25-’26. - Refinery throughput for Indian Oil standalone expected around 72-73 MMTPA for FY ’25-’26, higher than 71.6 MMTPA in the previous year. - New refinery expansions (Panipat by June ’26, Gujarat by June ’26, Barauni starting commissioning August ’26) will increase capacity. - Incremental refinery utilization expected to be ~60% in the first year post commissioning, improving beyond 80% in the second year. - Petrochemical sales rising with positive EBIT and improved margins expected to continue. - Marketing expansion includes adding retail outlets (597 commissioned in Q2) boosting volume growth. - Growth supported by Government policies, Project Sprint cost optimization, and ongoing CAPEX of Rs. 33,494 crores for FY ’25-’26 aimed at capacity and efficiency improvements.

- Strong and sustained demand for petroleum products is expected to significantly improve performance in Q3 and Q4 of FY '25-'26. - Q2 PAT was Rs. 7,610 crores, higher than Q1, with H1 PAT at Rs. 13,299 crores vs. Rs. 2,823 crores in H1 FY '25, indicating strong earnings momentum. - Refining margins remain robust, supported by better diesel cracks and operational performance. - Project Sprint cost optimizations and operational improvements are expected to sustain earnings growth. - LPG compensation (Rs. 14,486 crores for IOC) to be recognized monthly from November 2025, improving cash flow and profits. - Petrochemical segment profitability has improved with positive EBITDA expected for the rest of the year. - Panipat and other refinery expansions commissioning in FY '26 and FY '27 will raise throughput and utilization, with initial utilization at ~60%, potentially increasing beyond 80% in the second year. - Overall, positive outlook with supportive government policies, improving refining margins, and expansion projects positioning for earnings growth through FY '27.

- Total CAPEX for FY 2025-26 is budgeted at Rs. 33,494 crores (Page 6). - Refining CAPEX: Approximately Rs. 14,000 crores (Page 12). - Marketing and pipelines: About Rs. 10,000 crores (Page 12). - Petrochemicals (PetChem): Around Rs. 2,500 crores (Page 12). - Renewables: Equity contribution of about Rs. 2,000 crores to JVs and subsidiaries, including a JV with NTPC targeting 30 GW by 2030 (Pages 12, 10). - Major projects: - PX-PTA plant at Paradip refinery (~Rs. 14,000 crores), commissioning expected Q3 FY 26-27 (Page 17). - Poly Butadiene Rubber plant at Panipat (~Rs. 3,000 crores), commissioning expected June 2026 (Page 17). - Mundra-Panipat pipeline (~Rs. 10,000 crores) (Page 17). - Acrylics and oxo-alcohol plant at Vadodara (~Rs. 6,000 crores) (Page 18). - Project Sprint: A three-year initiative started in April 2025 aimed at optimizing CAPEX and operational costs (Page 10).

- As of September 30, 2025, Indian Oil Corporation's borrowings increased by about Rs. 6,692 crores to Rs. 1,28,239 crores compared to June 30, 2025. - The rise in borrowings was mainly due to working capital changes and foreign exchange translation. - The company's current debt-to-equity ratio is 0.68, indicating comfortable positioning to fund ongoing CAPEX plans. - For the financial year 2025-26, the company has a budgeted CAPEX target of Rs. 33,494 crores aligned with long-term strategic and national energy priorities. - No explicit mention of new fundraising through debt or equity for upcoming periods was stated. - The company plans to fund its CAPEX through existing borrowing capacity and equity contributions to joint ventures and subsidiaries, especially in renewables (approx. Rs. 2,000 crores equity). - Project Sprint aims to optimize both capital and revenue expenditures, possibly affecting future funding needs.

The document "1448.pdf" does not provide specific details regarding the current or expected order book or pending orders for Indian Oil Corporation Limited as of the October 28, 2025 call. The focus during the call and in the report is primarily on operational performance, financial highlights, project updates (such as refinery expansions), LNG purchase agreements, CAPEX plans, and compliance with sanctions. Therefore, there is no explicit mention or quantification of order book or pending orders in the provided transcript or report excerpts.