Adani Power Ltd

Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No informationcapex: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- Currently arranging funding for the interim gap via domestic capital markets or domestic banks. - Recently raised INR7,500 crores through secured non-convertible debentures. - Interim funds have also been raised from banks in the form of corporate debt. - The company follows a conservative capital management approach, funding majority of expansion from internal accruals over time. - Weighted average cost of borrowing recently is around 8%, sourced from debt capital markets or domestic banks. - No explicit mention of immediate equity fundraising in the discussed period. - Future capital allocation will be careful to seize new opportunities in India's expanding energy sector, implying possible future funding needs aligned with expansion plans.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- FY26-27 capex: INR 25,000 crores; FY27-28 capex: INR 33,000 crores for expansion. - Ongoing expansion plan totaling INR 2 lakh crores with annualized capex around INR 20,000 crores. - Capacity additions spread from FY29 to FY32, targeting to commission 4 GW or more each year. - Focus on thermal capacity expansion to reach 42 GW by FY31-32. - Exploring opportunities in nuclear power, with SPVs incorporated and sites identified, pending government rules. - Recent incorporation of SPV in Bhutan for 570 MW hydro project. - Strategic plan to deploy cash surplus post debt repayment by FY31-32 into further expansion or new investments. - Continued emphasis on internal accrual funding and conservative capital management. - Potential for investing beyond India in thermal, hydro, transmission, and nuclear sectors.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Power sales for FY26 were 99.1 billion units, growing 3.4% YoY, despite demand volatility. - Peak power demand reached 256 GW recently and is expected to rise further in FY27. - FY27 is anticipated to see strong growth in overall power demand and peak demand. - New PPAs tied cover 13.3 GW of expansion capacity, supporting revenue visibility. - 95% of operating capacity (18.15 GW) is under long/medium-term PPAs, ensuring stability. - Upcoming capacity additions (23.7 GW expansion by 2032) will drive future volume and revenue growth. - EBITDA expected to reach INR 50,000 crores by FY31 (potentially FY30 if no issues). - Revenue and EBITDA growth will be supported by higher PPA tariffs and capacity expansion execution. - Capacity planned to reach 42 GW by FY31-32, enabling substantial cash flow and business scaling.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- EBITDA expected to double to INR50,000 crore by FY31, potentially as early as FY30 if plans proceed smoothly. - Continued capacity expansion targeting 23.7 GW addition by 2032, aiming for a total capacity of 42 GW by FY31-32. - Operating cash flow rising with capex around INR25,000 crore in FY26-27 and INR33,000 crore in FY27-28. - By FY31-32, debt expected to be fully repaid; thereafter, significant cash surpluses anticipated. - New PPAs tied up totaling 13.3 GW expansion with 95% existing operating capacity under medium- to long-term PPAs for stable earnings. - Despite market volatility, FY26 PAT was INR12,971 crore with strong EBITDA resilience. - Future growth driven by commissioning of new capacity and higher PPA tariffs improving return metrics. - Business likely to transition to a debt-free company with multiple avenues for cash deployment and strategy to leverage growth in thermal, nuclear, and renewable energy sectors.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Adani Power has successfully tied up 10.4 GW of expansion capacity under long-term PPAs during FY26, increasing the total tie-up expansion capacity to 13.3 GW with recent addition of a 1,600 MW PPA from Maharashtra DISCOM. - The company is progressing on a massive expansion plan targeting 23.7 GW of thermal capacity addition by 2032. - Capacity commissioning planned includes Korba Phase-II (1.32 GW) in FY27 and Mahan Phase-II (1.6 GW) in FY28, among others. - An overall expansion capex plan of about INR 2 lakh crore, with INR 25,000 crore allocated for FY27 and INR 33,000 crore for FY28. - Upcoming PPAs in the market total almost 13 GW across states including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, and Gujarat, with Gujarat issuing bidding documents for an additional 4,000 MW. - About 95% of current operating capacity is tied up under medium- or long-term PPAs, reducing merchant capacity to 5%.