Adani Power Ltd
Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis
Power
fundraise: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No informationcapex: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- Currently arranging funding for the interim gap via domestic capital markets or domestic banks.
- Recently raised INR7,500 crores through secured non-convertible debentures.
- Interim funds have also been raised from banks in the form of corporate debt.
- The company follows a conservative capital management approach, funding majority of expansion from internal accruals over time.
- Weighted average cost of borrowing recently is around 8%, sourced from debt capital markets or domestic banks.
- No explicit mention of immediate equity fundraising in the discussed period.
- Future capital allocation will be careful to seize new opportunities in India's expanding energy sector, implying possible future funding needs aligned with expansion plans.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- FY26-27 capex: INR 25,000 crores; FY27-28 capex: INR 33,000 crores for expansion.
- Ongoing expansion plan totaling INR 2 lakh crores with annualized capex around INR 20,000 crores.
- Capacity additions spread from FY29 to FY32, targeting to commission 4 GW or more each year.
- Focus on thermal capacity expansion to reach 42 GW by FY31-32.
- Exploring opportunities in nuclear power, with SPVs incorporated and sites identified, pending government rules.
- Recent incorporation of SPV in Bhutan for 570 MW hydro project.
- Strategic plan to deploy cash surplus post debt repayment by FY31-32 into further expansion or new investments.
- Continued emphasis on internal accrual funding and conservative capital management.
- Potential for investing beyond India in thermal, hydro, transmission, and nuclear sectors.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Power sales for FY26 were 99.1 billion units, growing 3.4% YoY, despite demand volatility.
- Peak power demand reached 256 GW recently and is expected to rise further in FY27.
- FY27 is anticipated to see strong growth in overall power demand and peak demand.
- New PPAs tied cover 13.3 GW of expansion capacity, supporting revenue visibility.
- 95% of operating capacity (18.15 GW) is under long/medium-term PPAs, ensuring stability.
- Upcoming capacity additions (23.7 GW expansion by 2032) will drive future volume and revenue growth.
- EBITDA expected to reach INR 50,000 crores by FY31 (potentially FY30 if no issues).
- Revenue and EBITDA growth will be supported by higher PPA tariffs and capacity expansion execution.
- Capacity planned to reach 42 GW by FY31-32, enabling substantial cash flow and business scaling.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- EBITDA expected to double to INR50,000 crore by FY31, potentially as early as FY30 if plans proceed smoothly.
- Continued capacity expansion targeting 23.7 GW addition by 2032, aiming for a total capacity of 42 GW by FY31-32.
- Operating cash flow rising with capex around INR25,000 crore in FY26-27 and INR33,000 crore in FY27-28.
- By FY31-32, debt expected to be fully repaid; thereafter, significant cash surpluses anticipated.
- New PPAs tied up totaling 13.3 GW expansion with 95% existing operating capacity under medium- to long-term PPAs for stable earnings.
- Despite market volatility, FY26 PAT was INR12,971 crore with strong EBITDA resilience.
- Future growth driven by commissioning of new capacity and higher PPA tariffs improving return metrics.
- Business likely to transition to a debt-free company with multiple avenues for cash deployment and strategy to leverage growth in thermal, nuclear, and renewable energy sectors.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Adani Power has successfully tied up 10.4 GW of expansion capacity under long-term PPAs during FY26, increasing the total tie-up expansion capacity to 13.3 GW with recent addition of a 1,600 MW PPA from Maharashtra DISCOM.
- The company is progressing on a massive expansion plan targeting 23.7 GW of thermal capacity addition by 2032.
- Capacity commissioning planned includes Korba Phase-II (1.32 GW) in FY27 and Mahan Phase-II (1.6 GW) in FY28, among others.
- An overall expansion capex plan of about INR 2 lakh crore, with INR 25,000 crore allocated for FY27 and INR 33,000 crore for FY28.
- Upcoming PPAs in the market total almost 13 GW across states including Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, West Bengal, and Gujarat, with Gujarat issuing bidding documents for an additional 4,000 MW.
- About 95% of current operating capacity is tied up under medium- or long-term PPAs, reducing merchant capacity to 5%.
