Adani Power Ltd
Q4 FY27 Earnings Call Analysis
Power
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Adani Power is progressing well on a 23.7 GW thermal expansion program.
- Current orderbook includes projects like Mahan Phase-II (80% complete), Raipur Phase-II (44% complete), Raigarh Phase-II (38% complete), and Korba Phase 2 (construction resumed).
- These projects are scheduled for phased commissioning starting FY '27.
- The company is actively participating in ongoing bids for 15 GW to fill the remaining 12 GW capacity.
- Expectation of new long-term PPA bids for thermal power from other states soon.
- A 3,200 MW greenfield project in Assam has been awarded; it's part of upcoming capacity additions.
- The company plans to move from 18.15 GW to 42 GW capacity by 2031-32, underpinned by secured PPAs.
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- Adani Power is not pursuing any project-wise financial closure.
- Majority of the capex will be funded from internal accruals generated by operating assets (about INR 1.4 lakh crores over 5-6 years).
- There is an interim funding gap of approximately INR 60,000 crores.
- This interim gap is being funded through a mix of domestic capital markets and domestic banks.
- A recent example includes a INR 7,500 crore Non-Convertible Debenture (NCD) issuance in four tranches with coupon rates ranging from 8% to 8.4%.
- The company has strong liquidity and a solid credit rating (AA stable).
- By FY '31-'32, Adani Power aims to have sufficient cash flow and EBITDA to fully pay down its entire debt.
- No explicit plans for new equity fundraising were mentioned.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Adani Power plans a capex of around INR 2 lakh crores (USD 22 billion) over 5-6 years to add 24 GW capacity, expanding total capacity from 18.15 GW to 42 GW by FY '31-'32.
- Majority of capex funding will come from internal accruals (~INR 1.4 lakh crores from existing assets) with interim funding via domestic capital markets and banks to cover a gap of INR 60,000 crores.
- No project-wise funding; capex will be funded from overall company accruals.
- Capex cost for the Assam greenfield project is ~INR 10 crores per MW.
- Recent fundraise through INR 7,500 crores AA-rated NCDs supports capacity expansion and working capital.
- Ongoing projects: Mahan Phase-II (~80% complete), Raipur Phase-II (~44%), Raigarh Phase-II (~38%), and Korba Phase 2 construction resumed; phased commissioning from FY '27 onwards.
- Focus on tying up capacity via long-term PPAs to ensure revenue visibility and reduce market volatility.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Adani Power plans to expand capacity from 18.15 GW to 42 GW by FY '31-'32, nearly doubling capacity.
- Expected capex for the expansion is about INR 2 trillion (~USD 22 billion), largely funded through internal accruals and some market/bank financing.
- Higher capacity tied up under PPAs provides stable revenue visibility; 90%+ of current operating fleet under long-term/medium-term PPAs, reducing market volatility exposure.
- EBITDA growth expected from new PPAs with better capacity charges and pass-through fuel costs.
- Power sales volume rose to 71.8 billion units for 9M FY26, up from 69.5 billion units last year, supported by capacity additions.
- Demand is projected to rise with power peak expected to reach 380-400 GW by FY32, supporting merchant market demand and pricing.
- Incremental sales/revenue driven by commissioning of new plants (e.g., Korba, Mahan, Raipur) from FY27 onwards.
- Management expresses confidence in long-term power demand and revenue growth visibility.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Adani Power plans to expand capacity from 18.15 GW to 42 GW by FY '31-'32, adding 24 GW over 6-7 years.
- Majority of the INR 2 trillion (USD 22 billion) capex will be funded through strong internal accruals (INR 1.4 trillion expected EBITDA/FFO over 5-6 years).
- EBITDA and cash flow expected to be robust enough to fully repay debt by FY '31-'32, still leaving significant surplus cash flow.
- New PPAs for added capacity have higher tariffs with 100% EBITDA driven by fixed capacity charges and fuel pass-through, improving earnings visibility and margins.
- Operating assets generate yearly EBITDA of about INR 22,000 crores and FFO of INR 20,000 crores, providing strong recurring earnings.
- Growth supported by improved plant efficiencies, technological upgrades, and focus on long-term contracted revenues reducing merchant exposure.
- Return on assets expected to be among the best in the industry by FY '31-'32.
