Avenue Supermarts Ltd

Q2 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Retailing

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

The transcript on the provided pages does not explicitly mention any current or future plans for fundraising through debt or equity for Avenue Supermarts Limited. Key points from the discussion related to capital and expansion are: - Capital commitments have increased (e.g., from INR 2,100 crores to INR 3,600 crores), reflecting purchase orders and ongoing store construction costs, not directly related to fundraising. - Store expansion plans include opening 40-70 stores per year, indicating capital deployment but no mention of raising new funds. - Focus is on operational excellence, capability building, and gradual scaling rather than immediate capital raising. - No direct commentary on issuing new equity or debt instruments was provided in the sections reviewed. Thus, there is no indication of planned or ongoing fundraising via debt or equity in the disclosed segments.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Capital commitments increased to INR 3,600 crores from INR 2,100 crores year-on-year, reflecting open purchase orders for construction and store openings. - Capital commitments vary based on store size, city-specific construction costs, and features like lifts; not directly linear to number of stores. - The company plans to increase store additions from approx. 40-50 per year to 60-70 over the next two to three years, implying increased capital expenditure. - Expansion focus remains on cluster-based growth in existing markets with some entries into new states like Uttar Pradesh and Orissa. - E-commerce (DMart Ready) growth is currently capacity-constrained; investment is directed toward building fulfillment centers before aggressive customer acquisition. - No plans for big box wholesale format; strategy focuses on smaller formats and value retail. - Investment in talent and capabilities is ongoing to support long-term growth and enterprise scaling over the next 10 years.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Store additions are the key driver for CAGR growth; current annual additions around 40-45 stores, with a target to increase to 60-70 stores per year in the next 2-3 years. - Maintaining a 15%-20% CAGR growth rate will require accelerated store expansion beyond the current pace. - Growth is challenging to maintain at 15%-20% CAGR if store additions remain at ~40 per annum. - Focus remains on cluster-based expansion and entering new states/regions while prioritizing existing markets. - E-commerce (DMart Ready) growth is consciously moderated to fix the model and build capacity before aggressive scaling; revenue growth depends on capacity expansion. - Basket sizes have maintained or slightly increased recently, which supports revenue growth. - Gross margin contribution changes impact profitability but absolute revenue from new stores drives overall growth. - Apparel and other categories are being institutionalized to reduce volatility and ensure sustained growth.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- PAT grew by 6.6% and 13.5% (excluding one-time tax gain), indicating steady earnings growth. (Page 6) - EBITDA loss in e-commerce (DMart Ready) is reducing, expected to become profitable over time; brick-and-mortar profits can fund this. (Page 28) - Store additions are key growth drivers; current run rate of ~40-45 stores/year with a capability to scale to 60 stores/year to sustain 15-20% CAGR growth. (Pages 9, 16, 56) - Maintaining 15-20% CAGR depends heavily on accelerating store additions; growth not primarily driven by gross margin improvements or GMA share alone. (Pages 16, 56) - No concrete guidance on gross margin or store count; emphasis on qualitative trends rather than precise projections. (Page 21, 56) - DMart Ready improving but not yet breakeven; overall losses reducing. (Page 56) - Overall, growth depends on successful store expansion and operational scaling rather than margin expansions or e-commerce alone.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Capital commitments stood at INR 3,600 crores compared to INR 2,100 crores year-on-year. - Capital commitments represent open purchase orders at the end of the year, reflecting ongoing construction and project costs. - The number is point-in-time and depends on the stages of purchase orders in progress; thus, it may appear inflated. - Capital commitments indicate expected construction costs budgeted over the next 2-3 years. - The rise in capital commitments partly reflects store openings but is influenced by factors like city-specific construction costs and store size. - Store openings are expected to increase gradually from around 40 currently to 60-70 per year in the next two to three years. - Capital commitments are not linearly correlated to store numbers but provide a broad indication of investment plans.