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CARE Ratings LtdQ3 FY19

CARE Ratings Ltd Q3 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 1,678P/E: 31.6Market Cap: ₹5.4K CrSector: Capital Markets

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 5

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

No

Capex

N/A

0 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 5
  • Optimism exists for H2 FY2020, driven by festive season consumption and good Kharif harvest, potentially boosting spending and investment next year or soon after.
  • Full recovery expected likely only by FY2021 with a swifter market pickup.
  • Growth depends heavily on resolution pace of NBFC crisis and banking sector health.
  • Government measures (PSB mergers, corporate tax cuts, ease of doing business, sector-specific boosts) expected to aid recovery.
  • Corporate bond market expansion, bank credit growth (especially to industrial and service sectors), and revived capex cycle are key for long-term volume/revenue expansion.
  • Surveillance income stable; initial rating income affected by economic slowdown and lower issuances, with efforts ongoing to boost business development.
  • CARE expects better performance from subsidiaries like CARE Risk Solutions, contributing to consolidated growth.
  • Overall, slow but cautious improvement anticipated, with significant dependence on macroeconomic and financial sector recovery.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • CARE Ratings expects an improvement in H2 FY2020 over H1 due to anticipated consumption recovery from festival season and good Kharif harvest, potentially boosting investments next fiscal. (Page 4)
  • Revenue growth is constrained by ongoing economic slowdown, banking sector stress, and NBFC crisis, impacting new issuances more than surveillance income. (Pages 3, 6, 14)
  • Employee costs increased due to salary revisions implemented in early 2019; however, ESOP amortization charges have ended, providing some cost cushion in coming quarters. (Pages 11, 15)
  • No significant structural or regulatory changes anticipated to drastically alter margins; focus remains on maintaining quality manpower for quality ratings. (Page 10)
  • Long-term growth depends on revival in bank credit, corporate bond market growth (including lower-rated debts), and improvement in private capex and credit flows. (Pages 9, 10)
  • Overall, CARE anticipates a swifter recovery from FY2021 onwards rather than immediate rebound this fiscal. (Page 4)

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Fundraise plans

  • The company did not explicitly mention any current or immediate plans for new fundraising through debt or equity in the provided transcript.
  • There is no direct reference to impending capital raising activities or equity issuance.
  • The company highlighted a significant decline in volume of debt rated (~50-60% decline) impacting revenue but maintained market share.
  • They discussed the slowdown in the economy and subdued borrowings affecting rating opportunities.
  • No specifics were shared about future debt or equity fundraising; focus remains on monitoring economic recovery and market conditions.
  • Subsidiary expansions, such as entering Kenya, were mentioned, but without associated fundraising plans.
  • Management emphasized maintaining quality manpower and cost control rather than raising funds at this stage.

Order book

No
  • The transcripts do not specifically mention the current or expected orderbook/pending orders for CARE Ratings as of Q2 FY2020.
  • Discussions focus on the volume of debt rated, which declined significantly by about 50-60% in the quarter.
  • There is emphasis on the slowdown in initial ratings business due to weak market conditions, with surveillance business remaining stable.
  • Market share in terms of rated volumes is said to be intact despite lower volumes.
  • There is no direct information or figures provided on pending orders or orderbook status in the call.

Capex plans

  • CARE Ratings currently does not indicate any large-scale capital expenditure or capex projects directly in the provided transcript.
  • The company is focusing on maintaining quality manpower as a key resource rather than reducing headcount, implying stable fixed employee-related expenses.
  • Strategic investments include expanding subsidiaries in Nepal and Mauritius and a new regulatory accreditation in Kenya with plans to set up operations there within a year to 18 months.
  • CARE is pursuing growth opportunities in risk management solutions through its CARE Risk Solutions business, targeting increased performance especially outside India in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
  • Regulatory-driven restructuring is causing certain businesses to be hived off to subsidiaries like CART, which carries out advisory services, reflecting strategic portfolio reorganization rather than capex-heavy moves.

How does CARE Ratings Ltd rank vs peers in Capital Markets?

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1CARE Ratings Ltd
Rev 5Mar 3

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