CARE Ratings Ltd

Q3 FY19 Earnings Call Analysis

Capital Markets

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: No informationrevenue: Category 5margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company did not explicitly mention any current or immediate plans for new fundraising through debt or equity in the provided transcript. - There is no direct reference to impending capital raising activities or equity issuance. - The company highlighted a significant decline in volume of debt rated (~50-60% decline) impacting revenue but maintained market share. - They discussed the slowdown in the economy and subdued borrowings affecting rating opportunities. - No specifics were shared about future debt or equity fundraising; focus remains on monitoring economic recovery and market conditions. - Subsidiary expansions, such as entering Kenya, were mentioned, but without associated fundraising plans. - Management emphasized maintaining quality manpower and cost control rather than raising funds at this stage.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- CARE Ratings currently does not indicate any large-scale capital expenditure or capex projects directly in the provided transcript. - The company is focusing on maintaining quality manpower as a key resource rather than reducing headcount, implying stable fixed employee-related expenses. - Strategic investments include expanding subsidiaries in Nepal and Mauritius and a new regulatory accreditation in Kenya with plans to set up operations there within a year to 18 months. - CARE is pursuing growth opportunities in risk management solutions through its CARE Risk Solutions business, targeting increased performance especially outside India in South Asia and Southeast Asia. - Regulatory-driven restructuring is causing certain businesses to be hived off to subsidiaries like CART, which carries out advisory services, reflecting strategic portfolio reorganization rather than capex-heavy moves.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Optimism exists for H2 FY2020, driven by festive season consumption and good Kharif harvest, potentially boosting spending and investment next year or soon after. - Full recovery expected likely only by FY2021 with a swifter market pickup. - Growth depends heavily on resolution pace of NBFC crisis and banking sector health. - Government measures (PSB mergers, corporate tax cuts, ease of doing business, sector-specific boosts) expected to aid recovery. - Corporate bond market expansion, bank credit growth (especially to industrial and service sectors), and revived capex cycle are key for long-term volume/revenue expansion. - Surveillance income stable; initial rating income affected by economic slowdown and lower issuances, with efforts ongoing to boost business development. - CARE expects better performance from subsidiaries like CARE Risk Solutions, contributing to consolidated growth. - Overall, slow but cautious improvement anticipated, with significant dependence on macroeconomic and financial sector recovery.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- CARE Ratings expects an improvement in H2 FY2020 over H1 due to anticipated consumption recovery from festival season and good Kharif harvest, potentially boosting investments next fiscal. (Page 4) - Revenue growth is constrained by ongoing economic slowdown, banking sector stress, and NBFC crisis, impacting new issuances more than surveillance income. (Pages 3, 6, 14) - Employee costs increased due to salary revisions implemented in early 2019; however, ESOP amortization charges have ended, providing some cost cushion in coming quarters. (Pages 11, 15) - No significant structural or regulatory changes anticipated to drastically alter margins; focus remains on maintaining quality manpower for quality ratings. (Page 10) - Long-term growth depends on revival in bank credit, corporate bond market growth (including lower-rated debts), and improvement in private capex and credit flows. (Pages 9, 10) - Overall, CARE anticipates a swifter recovery from FY2021 onwards rather than immediate rebound this fiscal. (Page 4)
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The transcripts do not specifically mention the current or expected orderbook/pending orders for CARE Ratings as of Q2 FY2020. - Discussions focus on the volume of debt rated, which declined significantly by about 50-60% in the quarter. - There is emphasis on the slowdown in initial ratings business due to weak market conditions, with surveillance business remaining stable. - Market share in terms of rated volumes is said to be intact despite lower volumes. - There is no direct information or figures provided on pending orders or orderbook status in the call.