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Coal India LtdQ3 FY21

Coal India Ltd Q3 FY21 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 435P/E: 9.2Market Cap: ₹2.8L CrSector: Consumable Fuels

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 3

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 3
  • Target production for FY2023 is 700 to 710 million tons, depending on demand.
  • Aim to achieve 1 billion tons coal production by 2024-2025, adjusted from earlier 2023-2024 estimate.
  • Expect e-auction coal sales for FY2022 to be roughly flat year-on-year, around 90 million tons.
  • E-auction supply in 2021 showed strong premiums (45-50%), indicating favorable market demand.
  • Increased production supported by major capex of ₹40,000-₹50,000 Crores over 3-4 years focusing on coal mining and evacuation infrastructure.
  • Continued investment in rail links and evacuation lines to support incremental volumes from key mines.
  • Growth tied closely to demand scenario, especially power sector requirements; coal production cannot exceed demand due to inventory constraints.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • Coal India targets coal production of 700-710 million tons for FY2023, showing growth from previous years.
  • The company aims to reach 1 billion ton production by 2024-2025, dependent on demand.
  • Capex is expected to increase significantly, with Rs. 17,000 Cr planned for FY2022 and over Rs. 40,000-50,000 Cr investment over the next 3-5 years to boost production and evacuation infrastructure.
  • Despite large Capex, incremental ROCE is currently negative due to selling significant volumes to power sector at lower prices.
  • Coal India expects moderate price hikes in FSA coal prices soon to improve margins and offset rising costs.
  • Improving auction premiums (around 45-50%) support revenue growth.
  • Debtor position is improving with reduction in outstanding dues.
  • Wage and labor cost increases remain a concern but are expected to be compensated by price increases, helping maintain EBITDA margins.

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Fundraise plans

- The transcript on page 16 and surrounding pages does not explicitly mention any current or planned new fundraising through debt or equity by Coal India Limited. - There is detailed discussion on capital expenditure (Capex) plans, targeting investments around ₹40,000 to ₹50,000 Crores over the next 3-5 years for coal production and evacuation projects. - Management emphasizes that current Capex is being funded but does not specify new debt or equity issuance. - The focus is on investment in coal mining capacity, rail links, and FMC projects, with no concrete mention of financing sources such as fresh debt or equity fundraising. - Discussions revolve around maintaining production and cost control rather than raising new funds from the market. In summary, no specific information on new debt or equity fundraising was disclosed in this conference call transcript.

Order book

  • Ordering of equipment is a continuous process for Coal India's capex program.
  • Orders placed include six draglines and 240-ton dumpers and shovels.
  • There was earlier a shortage of equipment, which has now been addressed with new orders.
  • Equipment receipt has started.
  • Planned investment for the year is about Rs. 17,000 Crores; Rs. 13,500 Crores was spent last year.
  • Till the time of the call, about Rs. 7,000 Crores has already been spent.
  • Most projects are progressing well, with few exceptions like the Konar project, which is under re-tendering.
  • Railway projects are closely monitored by the Railway Minister to ensure timely completion.
  • The overall capex target over the next 3-5 years is Rs. 40,000 to 50,000 Crores focused largely on coal production and evacuation infrastructure.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Coal India plans significant Capex of around Rs. 40,000 to 50,000 crores over the next 3-4 years, mainly focused on coal production and evacuation infrastructure.
  • In FY2022, expected Capex is Rs. 17,000 crores; Rs. 13,500 crores spent in FY2021.
  • Orders placed for equipment like six draglines, 240-ton dumpers, and shovels as part of ongoing investment in mining capacity.
  • Investments include FMC projects and railway lines (e.g., Gharghoda-Kharsia, Dharamjaigarh-Kharsuguda, Sardega-Jharsuguda) to improve coal evacuation.
  • Minor investments in non-coal areas such as a 100 MW solar power project in Gujarat; no major Capex in aluminum or other sectors currently.
  • Participation in solar panel/module manufacturing under PLI scheme considered as minority partnership only.
  • Continuous investment needed to maintain production levels; without increased Capex, production and EBITDA may decline.

How does Coal India Ltd rank vs peers in Consumable Fuels?

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1Coal India Ltd
Rev 3Mar 3

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