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Future Consumer LtdQ3 FY16

Future Consumer Ltd Q3 FY16 Earnings Call Analysis

Revenue, margin, capex, fundraise and order book outlook from management commentary.

Price: 0.31Market Cap: ₹70 CrSector: Retailing

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 1

Margin

Category 2

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

2 of 3 growth signals are positive.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 1
  • Future Consumer Limited has demonstrated strong growth momentum with a 53% like-to-like revenue growth in H1 FY 2017, crossing Rs. 10,000 million.
  • The company aims for continuous top-line expansion, targeting Rs. 20,000 crores by 2021.
  • Expansion is supported by increasing distribution reach to about 22,000 stores, including Future Group outlets, general trade, and Rajasthan Fair Price shops.
  • Broadening product categories with new launches under established brands, including at least 10-15 new categories coming in the next 3-6 months.
  • High potential in nascent categories like spreads and wet wipes, signaling future volume growth.
  • Capacity utilization is ramping up, with existing large production facilities and third-party capacities available to meet growing demand.
  • The company expects increased penetration of higher-margin categories, leading to improved revenue and margins.
  • Long-term benefit anticipated from demonetization via increased sales through organized channels (~85% of sales).

Margin guidance

Category 2
  • Future Consumer Limited reported strong revenue growth of 53% in H1 FY 2017 on a like-to-like basis, surpassing INR 10,000 million.
  • The company is on track to achieve profitability, reporting a positive EBITDA of Rs. 88 million in H1 FY 2017 compared to a loss of Rs. 128 million in H1 FY 2016.
  • EBITDA improved further in Q2 FY 2017 with a profit of Rs. 52 million versus a loss of Rs. 44 million last year.
  • Interest expense reduced by 24% due to equity raised, aiding profit growth.
  • Net losses narrowed from Rs. 577 million to Rs. 369 million year-over-year.
  • Margin expansion is expected as premiumization and product mix evolve, with gross margins currently around 13%-14%.
  • Increasing capacity utilization and expanded distribution are expected to drive operating leverage and profitability.
  • The company aims for continued positive trajectory in earnings and EBITDA with reducing losses leading towards profits in coming quarters.

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Fundraise plans

  • The transcript does not mention any immediate plans for new fundraising through debt or equity.
  • It references that the company has recently raised equity from IFC, which helped reduce interest expenses and contain net debt around Rs. 3,490 million as of September 30th.
  • The reduction in interest costs (down 24% YoY) and shorter operating cycle also support better financial health.
  • No explicit future fundraising plans were disclosed during this call.
  • The focus seems to be on utilizing existing capacity and improving profitability rather than raising new funds immediately.

Order book

The transcript does not explicitly mention details about the current or expected order book or pending orders for Future Consumer Limited. However, key relevant insights include: - The company is witnessing strong growth across multiple product categories, such as branded staples (57% of revenues) and frozen foods (Veg Affaire brand growing 123% Y-o-Y). - Capacity utilization is ramping up with facilities at the Food Park becoming operational soon, such as wafer biscuits production shifting in-house. - New product launches like Kosh oats and expansion in modern and general trade stores (22,000 stores now) indicate a growing demand pipeline. - The company expects to benefit from economies of scale, expecting gross margin improvements as capacity utilization and product mix improve. - The partnership with Booker Group is expected to impact sales meaningfully starting Q1 FY 2018. No specific numeric data on orderbook or pending orders was disclosed in the call.

Capex plans

Yes
  • Future Consumer Limited has made significant investments in their Food Park, which has large capacity for production.
  • They have launched new frozen food products utilizing this Food Park capacity, including Veg Affaire brand items like carrot peas mix, pulao mix, and Chinese mix.
  • The wafer biscuits factory at the Food Park in Karnataka is about to go live, shifting production from third parties to in-house facilities.
  • Installed IQF (Individual Quick Freezing) facilities are witnessing good demand, supported by acquiring cold supply chain company Brattle Foods to strengthen logistics.
  • The Rice Mill Facility in partnership with LT Foods was recently inaugurated to process specialty rice.
  • Additional customers have been signed at the Food Park since the last quarter, and commercial production at the wafer mill has started.
  • Expansion of cold supply chain infrastructure is an ongoing strategic effort to fully utilize installed capacities over the next 1-2 years.

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