Gujarat Industries Power Co Ltd
Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Power
revenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No informationfundraise: Yescapex: Yes
ποΈcapex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Total capex for Khavda project and park development is INR 3,780 crores (INR 600 crores for park development first phase and INR 3,600 crores for the solar project).
- INR 600 crores of park development capex to be incurred by FY25; INR 180 crores equity share from GIPCL.
- Solar project capex of INR 3,600 crores funded roughly 25-30% equity (around INR 2,000 crores equity) and 70-75% debt.
- Available cash generation of INR 400-500 crores annually; INR 600-700 crores cash on hand; equity funding gap to be raised via rights issue, QIP, preferential allotment, or promotersβ contribution.
- First 600 MW solar capacity commissioning expected by November 2024; full 1,200 MW first phase capacity by December 2024.
- Expenditure on solar project mainly post-monsoon; INR 50-60 crores spent to date.
- No expansion planned for lignite-based capacity; focus on R&M for 10 years life extension with allocated capex.
- Debt cost expected at around 8% with in-principle lender approvals.
πrevenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited (GIPCL) is focusing on renewable energy expansion, particularly solar power, with a 600 MW solar project (Khavda) expected to start commercial production by November 2024.
- A total capacity of 1,200 MW solar is planned to be operational on their own by December 2024-25.
- The company aims to continue capacity additions through a 2,375 MW park development, with a second phase deadline by December 2026.
- Renewable projects currently yield ~12%+ IRR, expected to improve profitability over next 2-3 years as depreciation and interest cost reduce.
- Revenues from the 600 MW solar plant post-commissioning are expected to reach around INR 430 crores.
- Operating cash flow is stable at ~INR 400 crores yearly, supporting growth investments.
- Expansion is largely driven by contract-backed projects and backed by a skilled team to meet timelines with one- to two-months margin.
πmargin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Renewable projects currently provide ~12%+ IRR, expected to improve as depreciation and interest costs decline over next 2-3 years, leading to higher profitability.
- Operating cash flow around INR 400 crores annually is sufficient to support equity portion of expansions.
- Upcoming 600 MW solar project expected to start revenue generation by November 2024, contributing ~INR 430 crores revenue after reaching optimum PLF.
- Large renewable expansion with expected debt of INR 3,000 crores by FY25, but management confident projects will generate revenue to cover debt servicing.
- EBITDA from renewable segment is INR 231 crores, and combined EBITDA with non-renewable is INR 500 crores, indicating growth potential.
- Management assures timely project completion with a 1-2 month margin, aiming for sustained earnings growth.
- ROE currently low due to early stage investments but expected to rise to double digits as projects mature.
πorderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The company has two major tenders in process:
- Balance of supply for structural parts valued at INR 1,300 crores (already available on the website).
- PV module tender, expected to be published next month.
- Both tenders are expected to be concluded by the end of the monsoon season.
- For the Khavda 600 MW solar project, the total project cost is about INR 3,600 crores under process with in-principle debt approval from lenders at around 8% interest.
- The first 600 MW solar capacity in the park is planned to be commissioned by November 2024.
- The balance 600 MW from the first phase will be tendered out by GUVNL.
- For the second phase (1,175 MW), expected deadline is December 2026; decisions on capacity uptake and funding will be taken post next year.
- Capex for this fiscal is expected to be on the lower side with major spend post-monsoon.
π°fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company anticipates a total investment of around INR 3,780 - 4,000 crores for park development and solar projects by FY25.
- Funding mix is expected to be approximately 70% debt and 30% equity.
- Equity requirement is around INR 2,000 crores.
- Cash generation of about INR 400-500 crores per year and existing cash of INR 600-700 crores will cover INR 1,500 crores equity internally over two years.
- For the remaining equity (approx. INR 500 crores), the company plans to raise funds via market instruments such as rights issues, QIPs, preferential issues, or direct promoter infusion.
- Debt funding is in principle approved from two or three large lenders at around 8% interest.
- The company recognizes the need to take on debt proactively to not miss development opportunities despite the increased leverage.
