Gujarat Industries Power Co Ltd

Q3 FY22 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- For the Khavda project, Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited plans to fund capacity addition in a phased manner using a 70:30 debt-to-equity ratio. - The company intends to raise debt from the market while infusing the equity portion over 4 to 5 years, utilizing internal cash flows and depreciation. - So far, the CAPEX incurred on park development is around Rs. 100-120 crores, with an additional Rs. 400-500 crores expected to be spent next year. - Discussions/dialogues with various financial institutions and banks have been initiated for debt, with the likely interest rate (coupon rate) ranging between 7% to 7.5%. - The company has enough cash generation to fund the equity portion without the need to restructure earlier projects or seek more equity urgently.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Khavda Park development CAPEX incurred till date: Rs. 100-120 crores; expected Rs. 400-500 crores next year. - Total park development CAPEX: Rs. 1,100 crores with 30% MNRE subsidy. - Capacity addition planned at Khavda: Four phases of 600 MW, 600 MW, 600 MW, and 575 MW solar capacity, over 5-6 years. - Target to add at least 50% capacity in Phase I (600 MW), finalized by last quarter of the current financial year. - Per MW cost at Khavda: Rs. 5.6 to 5.8 crores including everything. - Funding strategy: 70:30 debt-equity ratio; equity infusion phased over 4-5 years with internal accruals. - No immediate plan to add new thermal capacity; focus is on renewables and green hydrogen exploration for future phases. - CAPEX for new solar projects estimated at Rs. 1,600-1,700 crores for 300 MW solar capacity with 15-18 months execution timeline.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Current revenue is around Rs. 1,200 to Rs. 1,300 crores and is expected to remain flat in the next year due to ongoing capacity addition timelines. - Capacity additions of 200 to 300 MW are planned within the next year, which will contribute to revenue growth one year down the line. - From FY25 onwards, with approximately 50% capacity addition at the Khavda project, incremental revenue is expected based on tariffs around Rs. 2.75 to Rs. 2.80 per unit and capacity utilization factors of 27-29%. - The Khavda solar park is planned with a total capacity of about 2,375 MW, developed in 4 phases over 5-6 years, with the company targeting to develop over 50% of this capacity on its own. - The company expects phased capacity additions primarily in renewables (solar), aiming for substantial top-line growth by mid-decade linked to these projects and improved utilization of existing assets.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Revenue outlook for next year is expected to be flat around Rs. 1,200 - 1,300 crores due to current capacity. - Capacity additions of 200 to 300 MW planned in the next 1-2 years will positively contribute to revenue beyond next year. - EBITDA is approximately Rs. 220 crores currently; renewable segment contributes roughly Rs. 115 crores. - Profitability could improve with commissioning of new Khavda park phases from FY25 onwards, expected to add significant revenue. - Dividend policy may see revision in future as profitability improves; currently cautious due to ongoing expansions. - Gas-based plants remain non-operational due to high gas costs; viability expected if gas price falls to $8-8.5 per MMBtu, enabling cost-plus tariff supply. - Focus is shifting more toward renewable energy with phased capacity additions and development of green hydrogen initiatives in 3-4 years. - Operational lignite-based plants have good life visibility with captive mines supporting capacity for PPA life plus 10 years.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- The company has initiated dialogues with financial institutions and banks for funding, with expected interest rates between 7% to 7.5%. - CAPEX for the Khavda park development incurred till date is Rs. 100-120 crores; additional Rs. 400-500 crores expected next year. - Total CAPEX for 300 MW capacity addition at Khavda is estimated at Rs. 1,600-1,700 crores, with a 70:30 debt-equity funding mix. - They plan to add capacity in four phases: 600 MW, 600 MW, 600 MW, and 575 MW, primarily solar. - No specific pending orders mentioned for renewable projects, but a 75 MW solar project on mining reclaimed land is in tendering process pending approvals. - Park development is underway, with phased capacity addition over 4-5 years, expecting more than 50% of capacity additions to be in-house.