Keystone Realtors Ltd
Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Realty
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 2orderbook: Yes
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- The Company has a forthcoming project pipeline with an estimated Gross Development Value (GDV) of approximately Rs. 35,000 crores.
- This includes projects where they have received Letters of Intent (LOI), signed development agreements, or have land conveyance in favor.
- The cost to complete these projects is around Rs. 21,600 crores.
- The company is actively engaged in redevelopment and joint development projects, including 5 preferred redevelopment projects chosen in FY23.
- They have demonstrated the ability to manage and increase the area under development, with construction spends more than doubling in the last year.
- New project launches are expected each quarter, with a strong business development pipeline indicating project additions at 1.5 times of sales.
- They maintain a conservative business approach, choosing projects that align with decided margins to ensure profitability.
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- The company plans to more than double investment in new projects in the next financial year, which may require capital deployment.
- No explicit mention of upcoming equity fundraising; the IPO was completed in FY23.
- Mt. K. Capital, a Category-II AIF (Alternative Investment Fund) with a $100 million mandate focused on redevelopment projects, has been launched with Rustomjee as the development partner, raising US $40 million in the first close.
- The fund aims to strengthen project tie-ups and capital deployment capabilities.
- The company maintains a low debt profile with a secured gross debt of INR 452 crores and net debt as low as INR 19 crores, with a maximum target debt-to-equity ratio of 1:1.
- No direct mention of new debt issuance plans, but investment scale-up implies potential raising or deploying existing capital resources.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Mt. K. Capital has raised a $100 million Category-II AIF ESG impact fund focused on redevelopment projects in MMR, with Rustomjee as the development partner.
- The fund has achieved a first close with investors like State Bank of India and FamyCare; $40 million raised with two project commitments already made.
- This fund bolsters the group's firepower to acquire more projects, particularly in select geographies with projects under 3 lakh sq ft and timelines of 4-4.5 years.
- The company plans considerable new project tie-ups with over Rs. 1,000 crores capacity this year.
- Forthcoming projects pipeline shows an estimated GDV of Rs. 35,000 crores with costs around Rs. 21,600 crores.
- Strong emphasis on squeezing timelines between project tie-up and launch.
- Infrastructure developments in MMR (metro, airport, corridor) drive market growth supporting investment opportunities.
These initiatives indicate active and strategic capital deployment towards redevelopment and new project launches.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Targeting presales growth of 25% year-on-year over the next few years (Page 4).
- Plan to launch at least one project every quarter with GDV around Rs. 4,000 crores annually (Page 10).
- Business development pipeline is robust with an emphasis on asset-light redevelopment and joint development projects (Pages 8, 10).
- Expect to increase project additions proportional to sales churn ratio (1.5x to 2x sales), with plans to add significantly more projects in square feet terms (Page 8).
- Collections expected at 80-85% of presales, supporting healthy operating cash flows (OCF) (Page 12).
- OCF expected to improve, aiming for about 20-22% of inflows in coming years (Page 12).
- Focus on expansion into emerging micro markets with infrastructure growth like Mahim, Chembur, and Kalyan Dombivli (Page 8).
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Keystone Realtors targets presales growth of 25% year-on-year over the next few years, driven by launches in mid-mass and aspirational segments.
- Operating Cash Flow (OCF) is expected to improve, aiming for a healthy 20%-22% of inflows as new projects mature.
- Margin improvement is anticipated due to completion of legacy projects and shift to projects with better profitability; EBITDA margin improved from 16.3% to 19.7% in FY23.
- Interest costs are expected to decrease due to debt reduction post-IPO, enhancing margin arbitrage.
- The company plans to launch projects worth around Rs. 4,000 crores GDV annually, higher than FY23, supporting revenue growth.
- Economic share from developments will yield margins in the range of 20%-22% on GDV.
- New business development focuses on redevelopment and joint development projects with asset-light models, expected to boost long-term returns.
