Keystone Realtors Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
revenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: Yesfundraise: No informationcapex: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company mentions a completed NCLT transaction resulting in knocking off unsecured debt of around INR311 crores. - Current secured debt is considered the medium of debt exposure; unsecured debts are largely equity-like except for a small amount (~INR10-12 crores). - Investment philosophy limits upfront investment to not more than 10% of project GDV, with planned capital spend of about INR300-400 crores in the current financial year for new projects. - No specific mention of new fundraising through debt or equity in the current or upcoming periods. - Emphasis is on internal cash generation and disciplined investment aligned to project timelines and limits, suggesting no immediate need for fresh fundraising.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- The company follows an investment philosophy of not spending more than 10% of the Gross Development Value (GDV) upfront on any project. - For FY 2024, the planned capital expenditure on new projects is guided around INR 300 crores to INR 400 crores. - The bulk of the cash outflow for projects typically occurs 12 to 15 months after signing the Letter of Intent (LOI), with 7-8% spent in the last few months before launch. - Spend on newly acquired projects will mostly occur in the next fiscal year, with some minor upfront costs (stamp duty, registration). - The company aims to maintain an asset-light model, focusing on redevelopment projects, with careful project selection and risk mitigation strategies. - No plans to aggressively increase project acquisitions beyond operational capacity to avoid overextension.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- The company targets a 25% year-on-year growth in sales and revenue, as reiterated multiple times during the call. - Q1 FY24 pre-sales reached INR 502 crores, a 106% increase YoY, indicating strong momentum. - They plan to maintain consistent project launches, targeting at least one launch per quarter with an expected GDV of around INR 4,000 crores for the year. - Management expects steady-state sales from affordable and mid-mass housing segments to support continuous cash flow. - Long-term, growth is seen as sustainable with development across affordable to luxury segments, with normalized growth of around 20-25% annually. - Expansion into new micro markets (Mahim, Chembur, Dombivli) and leveraging redevelopment projects provides a solid pipeline. - The company expects sustainable EBITDA margins of around 25-28% from ongoing projects post FY25.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Keystone Realtors targets a 25% year-on-year growth in pre-sales and revenue, considered a baseline for future growth (Pages 6, 12). - Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margins for ongoing projects are expected to sustain around 25-28% from FY25 onwards, after lower-margin legacy projects complete in the current year (Page 17). - The company targets EBITDA margins of about 20-21% net margin on new redevelopment projects with internal IRRs around 25-30% (Page 10). - The management expects operating expenses (soft costs) to remain about 10% of total revenue, supporting margin stability (Page 12-13). - Project acquisition and launch pipeline is strong, aiming for INR 4,000 crores GDV launches this year, supporting revenue and profit growth (Pages 10, 16). - Overall outlook is confident, supported by steady project launches, effective cash flow management, and technological tools boosting sales (Pages 6, 12).
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Keystone Realtors has a strong project acquisition pipeline, having acquired INR 2,500 crores worth of projects this year. - The company targets acquiring 1.5x to 2x times of its annual sales in project acquisitions. - New projects secured this quarter include three, in line with their asset-light strategy. - Total GDV of new launches expected this year is around INR 4,000 crores, launching approximately one project per quarter. - The pipeline includes projects in new micro-markets such as Mahim, Chembur, and Dombivli, leveraging proximity to upcoming infrastructure. - The company aims to replenish its stock by about 1.5 to 2 times of deliveries annually to maintain growth. - Ongoing projects' unsold inventory stands at around INR 3,100 crores. - The long-term GDV available is roughly INR 35,000 crores, implying a development timeline of 15-18 years.