Marathon Nextgen Realty Ltd
Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis
Realty
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- No explicit mention of new fundraising through equity in the transcript.
- Management indicates a policy to keep debt-to-equity ratio between 0.5 and 1.0, targeting around 1.0 as manageable.
- Debt service coverage ratio is strong at 2.2, showing capacity to meet interest and repayments.
- Debt is likely to reduce over the next two years due to increasing equity and lower borrowing needs.
- Construction is mostly financed through collections; no need to borrow more currently.
- Leveraging is being used since cost of debt is lower than profits, but they maintain control post-pandemic lessons.
- No specific plans for fresh debt or equity fundraising announced; focus is on sustainable debt management and equity growth through operations.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Marathon Nextgen Realty is actively developing a 14-acre slum rehabilitation project in Bhandup, with ongoing construction and planned yearly launches of about 1 acre from this land bank.
- The company has a strong upcoming project pipeline of approximately 31.5 lakh square feet with an estimated sale value of ₹4,660 crores, targeting launches mainly in Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone.
- In 2024, they plan to launch around 9 lakh square feet across Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone, amounting to about ₹1,200 crores.
- They are also exploring redevelopment projects in prime locations like Worli, Walkeshwar, and Pedder Road, with 4-5 proposals under due diligence, though announcements are expected two quarters away.
- The focus is on high-quality branded projects with price hikes anticipated at 7-10% over the next 3 years, supporting ongoing investments and launches.
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- Marathon Nextgen Realty anticipates strong growth with a healthy launch pipeline and vast land parcels across the MMR region ready for development.
- Planned launches in 2024 include approximately 9 lakh sq.ft across Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone totaling around ₹1,200 crores.
- The company targets launching about 31.5 lakh sq.ft of saleable area valued at approximately ₹4,660 crores over the next few years.
- Price increases of 5% to 7% have been realized in the past year, with expectations of another 7% to 10% price hike over the next three years for high-quality branded projects.
- Sales velocity is strong, e.g., Monte South is selling 15-18 units per month in the high-ticket segment.
- Debt levels are expected to remain manageable or reduce slightly over two years, supporting sustainable growth.
- The company focuses on higher sales volumes alongside price optimization rather than inventory holding for price appreciation.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- The company has shown strong performance in H1 FY24 with net revenues of ₹339 crores, EBITDA of ₹146 crores, PBT of ₹80 crores, and PAT of ₹78 crores, all improving significantly over H1 FY23.
- Optimistic about future growth driven by healthy demand, efficient project execution, and a robust launch pipeline.
- Over next three years, expecting 7% to 10% price increases in quality branded projects, supporting value growth.
- Sales velocity is good across projects, with strong bookings and collections sustaining cash flow.
- Launch pipeline includes approx. 31.5 lakh sq.ft. totaling ₹4,660 crores over 12-48 months, with ₹1,200 crores planned for launch in 2024.
- Debt expected to reduce over the next two years, improving financial health.
- Overall, management anticipates continued profit growth backed by expanding project launches, pricing power, and controlled leverage.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- Marathon Nextgen Realty Limited has a strong launch pipeline with approximately 31.5 lakh square feet of saleable area upcoming.
- The estimated sale value of this pipeline is around ₹4,660 crores.
- In 2024, the company plans to launch close to 9 lakh square feet across Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone, valuing approximately ₹1,200 crores.
- The Bhandup land parcel (14 acres) includes ongoing construction of rehab buildings and plans for new sales buildings, with sales performing well in the ₹40-60 lakh ticket size range.
- Total pending estimated project cost to be incurred is ₹858 crores.
- Total estimated revenue from unsold inventory stands at ₹1,727 crores.
- Cash collections from sold units (completed and ongoing) stand at ₹642 crores as of September 30, 2023.
