Marathon Nextgen Realty Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Realty

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: Yes
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No explicit mention of new fundraising through equity in the transcript. - Management indicates a policy to keep debt-to-equity ratio between 0.5 and 1.0, targeting around 1.0 as manageable. - Debt service coverage ratio is strong at 2.2, showing capacity to meet interest and repayments. - Debt is likely to reduce over the next two years due to increasing equity and lower borrowing needs. - Construction is mostly financed through collections; no need to borrow more currently. - Leveraging is being used since cost of debt is lower than profits, but they maintain control post-pandemic lessons. - No specific plans for fresh debt or equity fundraising announced; focus is on sustainable debt management and equity growth through operations.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Marathon Nextgen Realty is actively developing a 14-acre slum rehabilitation project in Bhandup, with ongoing construction and planned yearly launches of about 1 acre from this land bank. - The company has a strong upcoming project pipeline of approximately 31.5 lakh square feet with an estimated sale value of ₹4,660 crores, targeting launches mainly in Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone. - In 2024, they plan to launch around 9 lakh square feet across Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone, amounting to about ₹1,200 crores. - They are also exploring redevelopment projects in prime locations like Worli, Walkeshwar, and Pedder Road, with 4-5 proposals under due diligence, though announcements are expected two quarters away. - The focus is on high-quality branded projects with price hikes anticipated at 7-10% over the next 3 years, supporting ongoing investments and launches.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Marathon Nextgen Realty anticipates strong growth with a healthy launch pipeline and vast land parcels across the MMR region ready for development. - Planned launches in 2024 include approximately 9 lakh sq.ft across Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone totaling around ₹1,200 crores. - The company targets launching about 31.5 lakh sq.ft of saleable area valued at approximately ₹4,660 crores over the next few years. - Price increases of 5% to 7% have been realized in the past year, with expectations of another 7% to 10% price hike over the next three years for high-quality branded projects. - Sales velocity is strong, e.g., Monte South is selling 15-18 units per month in the high-ticket segment. - Debt levels are expected to remain manageable or reduce slightly over two years, supporting sustainable growth. - The company focuses on higher sales volumes alongside price optimization rather than inventory holding for price appreciation.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company has shown strong performance in H1 FY24 with net revenues of ₹339 crores, EBITDA of ₹146 crores, PBT of ₹80 crores, and PAT of ₹78 crores, all improving significantly over H1 FY23. - Optimistic about future growth driven by healthy demand, efficient project execution, and a robust launch pipeline. - Over next three years, expecting 7% to 10% price increases in quality branded projects, supporting value growth. - Sales velocity is good across projects, with strong bookings and collections sustaining cash flow. - Launch pipeline includes approx. 31.5 lakh sq.ft. totaling ₹4,660 crores over 12-48 months, with ₹1,200 crores planned for launch in 2024. - Debt expected to reduce over the next two years, improving financial health. - Overall, management anticipates continued profit growth backed by expanding project launches, pricing power, and controlled leverage.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- Marathon Nextgen Realty Limited has a strong launch pipeline with approximately 31.5 lakh square feet of saleable area upcoming. - The estimated sale value of this pipeline is around ₹4,660 crores. - In 2024, the company plans to launch close to 9 lakh square feet across Monte South, Neo Park, and Nexzone, valuing approximately ₹1,200 crores. - The Bhandup land parcel (14 acres) includes ongoing construction of rehab buildings and plans for new sales buildings, with sales performing well in the ₹40-60 lakh ticket size range. - Total pending estimated project cost to be incurred is ₹858 crores. - Total estimated revenue from unsold inventory stands at ₹1,727 crores. - Cash collections from sold units (completed and ongoing) stand at ₹642 crores as of September 30, 2023.