NHPC Ltd

Q1 FY26 Earnings Call Analysis

Power

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 2margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no explicit mention of current or future fundraising through equity in the provided transcript. - Finance costs increased in FY’26 mainly due to higher interest on bonds and term loans related to projects like Parbati-II, Subansiri Lower, and Karnisar Solar Power Station, indicating ongoing debt servicing but no clear new debt issuance noted. - Cost overruns and escalations in hydro projects are typically accounted for in tariff and regulation, allowing cost pass-through rather than requiring fresh funding. - Several projects (e.g., Subansiri Upper, Omkareshwar-Indira Sagar, Etalin, Sawalkot, Kamala) are targeted for construction stages, which might necessitate future financing, but no explicit fund-raising plans were disclosed. - The company expects commissioning of around 2,994 MW hydro projects and 1,190 MW solar assets in FY’27, implying possible funding needs yet no direct mention of fundraising methods. In summary, no specific current or planned fundraising through debt or equity was disclosed in this call.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- NHPC is actively pursuing projects like Sawalkot (1,856 MW), Subansiri Upper (1,605 MW), and Etalin (3,097 MW) at different clearance stages. - Construction of Indira Sagar-Omkareshwar Pumped Storage Project (640 MW) is targeted to start in the current financial year. - Ongoing major hydro projects include: - Ratle HE Project (850 MW) with 29% physical progress; cost: Rs. 5,282 Crore; expected commissioning Nov '28. - Pakal Dul HE Project (1,000 MW) with 80% progress; cost: Rs. 12,728 Crore; commissioning by Q4 FY'27. - Kiru HE Project (624 MW) with 82% progress; cost: Rs. 5,409 Crore; commissioning by Q4 FY'27. - Kwar HE Project (540 MW) 33% progress; cost: Rs. 4,526 Crore; commissioning by Mar '28. - Solar projects under CPSU Scheme Tranche-II: - 300 MW commissioned in Bikaner. - 100 MW (Andhra Pradesh) and 600 MW (Gujarat) expected by June and Dec '26. - Other solar projects in Odisha and Kerala expected by Oct '26 and Mar '27 respectively. - Teesta-VI HE Project (500 MW) is 72% complete; cost: Rs. 9,167 Crore; commissioning expected Sep '29. - Kamala HE Project (1,720 MW) approved by Cabinet with Rs. 26,070 Crore investment; JV formation and clearances ongoing. - Dibang Multipurpose Project (2,880 MW) progressing; cost: Rs. 31,876 Crore; scheduled completion Feb '32.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- NHPC expects significant capacity additions in FY'27, with 2,994 MW of hydro assets commissioning, including balance 1,000 MW from Subansiri Lower, 120 MW Rangit-IV, 1,000 MW Pakal Dul, and 624 MW Kiru projects. - Additionally, 1,190 MW of solar assets are expected to be commissioned in the current fiscal. - Design energy generation from Subansiri Lower is projected around 5,000 to 5,500 million units. - Overall power generation has been increasing, with FY'26 generating 29,619 million units, a 16% increase YoY. - NHPC is targeting to bring five hydro projects into the construction stage during FY'27, including Indira Sagar-Omkareshwar PSP project. - Regulatory framework allows recovery of construction cost increases beyond control, supporting revenue stability. - No expected slowdown in generation despite El Nino; most plants are snow-fed. - PAF (Plant Availability Factor) normative level is around 80%.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- NHPC expects significant capacity addition of 2,994 MW hydro assets in FY'27 including Subansiri Lower (balance 1,000 MW), Rangit-IV (120 MW), Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), and Kiru (624 MW). - Additionally, 1,190 MW of solar assets are expected to be commissioned in FY'27. - Regulated equity is projected to increase from Rs. 18,309 Crore currently to Rs. 30,672 Crore by end of FY'27, reflecting growth in asset base. - Generation is expected to improve with commissioning of new units; Subansiri Lower projected to generate 5,000-5,500 million units. - Profitability outlook will improve with higher generation and full tariff realization as more units become commissioned, addressing current under-recovery in projects like Parbati-II and Subansiri Lower. - Cost escalations in ongoing projects are pass-through; hence not expected to materially affect profits. - Overall, NHPC targets steady earnings growth supported by project commissioning and tariff realization.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- NHPC is targeting to bring five hydro projects into the construction stage during the current financial year. - Two projects, Uri-I Stage-II and Dulhasti Stage-II, have already been awarded. - Three more projects likely to be brought into construction stage this year are Etalin, Sawalkot, and Kamala. - Subansiri Upper project may not be tendered this year; expected tendering is next year. - The Omkareshwar-Indira Sagar PSP project (640 MW) construction is expected to start in the current fiscal year. - No recent tendering was done for renewable projects; 23 GW of capacity tendered earlier, with 7 GW signed in PPAs. - Future tendering plans indicate Sawalkot, Kamala, Subansiri Upper, and Etalin may be tendered across this and next fiscal years. - The company is continuously filing tariff petitions for projects as units get commissioned.