NMDC Ltd
Q4 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis
Minerals & Mining
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
💰fundraise
Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?
- There is no explicit mention of any new fundraising through equity or debt in the call transcript.
- The company currently holds a strong cash balance of around INR 8,000 crores with a net cash position of approximately INR 6,300 crores after considering short-term borrowings.
- Capex plans for this year are around INR 3,500 crores (including steel plant), excluding steel plant about INR 2,000 crores, and around INR 1,500-1,600 crores planned for next year excluding the steel plant.
- There is no indication of immediate plans for raising funds through new borrowings; existing borrowing is short term amounting to INR 2,395 crores.
- The company appears to be funding its expansion and acquisition plans via internal cash resources.
- Price discovery for the 10% stake acquisition in the steel plant will be market-driven post-listing, with no current indication of equity fundraising related to this.
🏗️capex
Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?
- Capex Spend:
- FY23: ~INR 3,500 crores (including steel plant), excluding steel plant ~INR 2,000 crores.
- FY24: Planned capex ~INR 1,500-1,600 crores excluding steel plant.
- Major Projects Underway:
- Slurry pipeline expected by end 2024.
- Screening plant at Kirandul.
- Bacheli mine infrastructure ongoing.
- Coal blocks development.
- Pellet Plant:
- Current pellet plant operational but expects losses to reduce after capacity utilization reaches 55-60%.
- New larger pellet plant considered at Visakhapatnam or nearby, expected setup time 1.5-2 years, targeting commissioning by end of 2024.
- Steel Plant:
- 10% stake acquisition in NMDC Steel, purchase price yet to be decided (market-determined after listing).
- Commissioning targeted around March 2023 end/early next financial year.
- Strategic International Investments:
- Investments in overseas entities like Shunshine (~INR 240 crores) and ICBL (26% stake, INR 380 crores).
📊revenue
Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?
- NMDC targets around 50 million tons production and sales in FY 2024, up from about 40 million tons currently, aiming for roughly 10 million tons growth year-on-year.
- Production increase to come from expansion at Karnataka mines (from 7 to 10 million tons) and Balldilla sectors, including the commissioning of a fifth screening line.
- Completion of infrastructure projects like slurry pipelines and railway line doubling will support capacity increase to 70-75 million tons in the near to medium term.
- Demand is strong with substantial orders but constrained by logistics, especially availability of rakes (railway wagons).
- NMDC plans to explore exports starting Q4 FY 2023, leveraging improved international prices (~$120/ton) and lower shipping costs.
- Value addition through pellet plants is underway to utilize low-grade ore and expand product offerings, targeted to be operational by end of 2024.
- Overall, management expects stable to slightly growing volumes this fiscal, with significant jump in next financial year enabled by logistics improvements and project completions.
📈margin
Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?
- Projected full-year EPS is expected to be around INR 15, with current nine-month EPS about INR 11.
- FY '24 production target aims for 50 million tons, approximately 10 million tons growth year-on-year.
- Growth supported by capacity increases at Donimalai and Balldilla sectors, plus new screening plant.
- Capex planned around INR 1,500-1,600 crores in FY '24 (excluding steel plant).
- Export opportunities targeted from Q4 FY '23 onward, with viable pricing around $120/ton.
- Pellet plant expansion planned to improve utilization and reduce losses; commissioning expected by end of next calendar year.
- Operating profits expected to improve as pellet plant capacity utilization reaches ~55-60%.
- Logistics and infrastructure upgrades (slurry pipeline, railway line doubling) aimed at supporting volume and revenue growth.
- Dividend payout decisions remain open, with interim dividends declared; current cash reserves approximately INR 8,000 crores.
📋orderbook
Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?
- As per the transcript on page 17, NMDC is witnessing strong demand with substantial orders in hand.
- There is no indication of order backlog or pending orders causing production issues.
- The primary challenge is logistics, specifically the availability of railway rakes for evacuation and delivery of materials.
- The company is actively coordinating with railways on a daily basis to ensure rakes' availability and smooth dispatch.
- Demand pillars include strong domestic consumption and emerging export opportunities expected to commence by the end of Q4 FY23.
- Export plans are being made from ports such as Vishakhapatnam and Krishnapatnam to leverage favorable international prices.
- Overall, order fulfillment is expected to ramp up as logistics constraints are resolved.
