NMDC Ltd

Q4 FY24 Earnings Call Analysis

Minerals & Mining

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: No informationcapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 3orderbook: No information
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- There is no explicit mention of any new fundraising through equity or debt in the call transcript. - The company currently holds a strong cash balance of around INR 8,000 crores with a net cash position of approximately INR 6,300 crores after considering short-term borrowings. - Capex plans for this year are around INR 3,500 crores (including steel plant), excluding steel plant about INR 2,000 crores, and around INR 1,500-1,600 crores planned for next year excluding the steel plant. - There is no indication of immediate plans for raising funds through new borrowings; existing borrowing is short term amounting to INR 2,395 crores. - The company appears to be funding its expansion and acquisition plans via internal cash resources. - Price discovery for the 10% stake acquisition in the steel plant will be market-driven post-listing, with no current indication of equity fundraising related to this.
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Capex Spend: - FY23: ~INR 3,500 crores (including steel plant), excluding steel plant ~INR 2,000 crores. - FY24: Planned capex ~INR 1,500-1,600 crores excluding steel plant. - Major Projects Underway: - Slurry pipeline expected by end 2024. - Screening plant at Kirandul. - Bacheli mine infrastructure ongoing. - Coal blocks development. - Pellet Plant: - Current pellet plant operational but expects losses to reduce after capacity utilization reaches 55-60%. - New larger pellet plant considered at Visakhapatnam or nearby, expected setup time 1.5-2 years, targeting commissioning by end of 2024. - Steel Plant: - 10% stake acquisition in NMDC Steel, purchase price yet to be decided (market-determined after listing). - Commissioning targeted around March 2023 end/early next financial year. - Strategic International Investments: - Investments in overseas entities like Shunshine (~INR 240 crores) and ICBL (26% stake, INR 380 crores).
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- NMDC targets around 50 million tons production and sales in FY 2024, up from about 40 million tons currently, aiming for roughly 10 million tons growth year-on-year. - Production increase to come from expansion at Karnataka mines (from 7 to 10 million tons) and Balldilla sectors, including the commissioning of a fifth screening line. - Completion of infrastructure projects like slurry pipelines and railway line doubling will support capacity increase to 70-75 million tons in the near to medium term. - Demand is strong with substantial orders but constrained by logistics, especially availability of rakes (railway wagons). - NMDC plans to explore exports starting Q4 FY 2023, leveraging improved international prices (~$120/ton) and lower shipping costs. - Value addition through pellet plants is underway to utilize low-grade ore and expand product offerings, targeted to be operational by end of 2024. - Overall, management expects stable to slightly growing volumes this fiscal, with significant jump in next financial year enabled by logistics improvements and project completions.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Projected full-year EPS is expected to be around INR 15, with current nine-month EPS about INR 11. - FY '24 production target aims for 50 million tons, approximately 10 million tons growth year-on-year. - Growth supported by capacity increases at Donimalai and Balldilla sectors, plus new screening plant. - Capex planned around INR 1,500-1,600 crores in FY '24 (excluding steel plant). - Export opportunities targeted from Q4 FY '23 onward, with viable pricing around $120/ton. - Pellet plant expansion planned to improve utilization and reduce losses; commissioning expected by end of next calendar year. - Operating profits expected to improve as pellet plant capacity utilization reaches ~55-60%. - Logistics and infrastructure upgrades (slurry pipeline, railway line doubling) aimed at supporting volume and revenue growth. - Dividend payout decisions remain open, with interim dividends declared; current cash reserves approximately INR 8,000 crores.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- As per the transcript on page 17, NMDC is witnessing strong demand with substantial orders in hand. - There is no indication of order backlog or pending orders causing production issues. - The primary challenge is logistics, specifically the availability of railway rakes for evacuation and delivery of materials. - The company is actively coordinating with railways on a daily basis to ensure rakes' availability and smooth dispatch. - Demand pillars include strong domestic consumption and emerging export opportunities expected to commence by the end of Q4 FY23. - Export plans are being made from ports such as Vishakhapatnam and Krishnapatnam to leverage favorable international prices. - Overall, order fulfillment is expected to ramp up as logistics constraints are resolved.