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One 97 Communications LtdQ2 FY23

One 97 Communications Ltd

Q2 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Management growth scorecard

Revenue

Category 2

Margin

Category 3

Fundraise

N/A

Order

N/A

Capex

Yes

1 of 3 growth signals are positive — mixed outlook.

Full analysis

Revenue guidance

Category 2
  • Financial services, especially loan distribution and collection, have become one of Paytm's largest revenue drivers, growing rapidly over the last few years and expected to continue at a similar pace.
  • Merchant device additions are strong, growing from about 1 million devices per quarter to approximately 1.1 million, with an upward trend expected to continue for the next few years.
  • User growth continues with a focus on improving user experience and security, supporting ongoing payment volumes growth.
  • Paytm plans calibrated growth in lending, focusing on quality portfolios rather than just expanding loan book size, anticipating healthy pace aligned with macro conditions.
  • Expansion in merchant lending and personal loan products is planned with variations in existing offerings rather than new categories like mortgages.
  • Sales force and market geographical reach are expanding steadily, enabling deeper penetration and increased transaction volumes.
  • EBITDA and revenue growth are expected to improve as platform cost growth is controlled and ESOP cost declines from FY25 Q2.

Margin guidance

Category 3
  • The company is on track to become free cash flow positive by the year-end, indicating improving earnings and operating profits.
  • EBITDA trajectory shows positive momentum, with cost growth for platform building expected at 15%-20%.
  • ESOP costs are forecasted to reduce starting Q2 FY '25, which should enhance net income translation.
  • Revenue growth drivers and cost management suggest rapid improvement in profitability over coming quarters.
  • Improvement in net payment margin and better portfolio credit quality support healthier earnings.
  • Management refrains from giving precise forecasts but indicates a positive directional outlook for PBT and net income growth.
  • The focus remains on calibrated growth balancing risk-reward amid macro environment, signaling sustainable expansion in profits and EPS.

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Fundraise plans

  • There is no explicit mention of any current or upcoming fundraising through debt or equity in the provided transcript sections.
  • The company is focused on expanding its loan distribution business by adding three to four new lending partners during FY24-25, which suggests internal growth rather than capital raising.
  • Regulatory clarity on digital lending and scaling opportunities support the business without stated requirements for external capital.
  • The discussion centers more on growth, partner additions, and business metrics rather than on raising funds via debt or equity.
  • No guidance or plans related to future fundraising rounds are disclosed in the excerpts provided.

Order book

  • The company does not explicitly track the outstanding loan book (orderbook), as their commercial model is based on disbursements rather than the loan book size.
  • As an estimate, the outstanding loan book (AUM) is roughly one-third of the annualized disbursements, considering average tenure and composition.
  • Annualized disbursement run rate is close to INR 60,000 Cr.
  • The number of merchant loans during the quarter has stayed flat quarter-on-quarter, attributed partly to seasonality.
  • Paytm plans to add 3-4 more lending partners in FY 24-25 (one already announced), including banks, to sustain and grow disbursement targets.
  • Pending regulatory approvals for Payment Aggregation and Payment Bank are being processed; no specific timeline, but these approvals are not currently affecting business growth.
  • The loan distribution business has scaled significantly with broad growth across Paytm Postpaid, personal loans, and merchant loans.

Capex plans

Yes
  • The company is focused on expanding its merchant base and platform, which will drive a gradual increase in device-related depreciation, indicating ongoing capital investments in devices like Soundboxes.
  • The sales force and infrastructure for merchant acquisition are being scaled up, with expansion in new locations (from ~400 to ~500 locations over 12 months), implying continued investment in distribution and support capabilities.
  • There is a planned addition of three to four new lending partners over FY24-25 to sustain disbursement goals, suggesting strategic partnerships and possibly related technology/platform investments.
  • The company emphasizes building a large technology distribution network beyond payments, indicating ongoing capital investment in technology and product upgrade.
  • No explicit mention of new product lines or big-ticket capital expenditures; focus is on scaling existing platforms, adding variants of personal loans and merchant loans, and expanding devices and sales force.

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