Radico Khaitan Ltd

Q1 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Beverages

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Yescapex: Yesrevenue: Category 3margin: Category 1orderbook: No information
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- Rampur dual feed plant has become operational. - Sitapur plant expected to be operational from the beginning of Q2 FY24, with trial runs starting around July end. - Capital expenditure ongoing with a peak debt of approximately INR 800 crores expected by Q2 FY24 due to these plant investments. - Capitalized interest related to Sitapur greenfield project included until commercial production begins. - These investments aim to improve ENA capacity to around 21 crore liters total grain-based, enhancing captive consumption and reducing raw material costs (delta of INR 10-11 per liter). - The capex supports expansion in premium IMFL portfolio, luxury brands Rampur Indian Single Malt and Jaisalmer Indian Craft Gin, and price increases in CL/UPML segments. - These strategic investments are expected to contribute to margin improvement and sustained volume growth from FY24 onwards.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Projected overall IMFL volume growth around 10% for FY24 with top-line growth of 15-16% (Page 7). - Prestige & Above (P&A) category volume growth expected between 15-18%, including royalty brands (Page 13, Page 7). - Regular category anticipated to grow mid-single digits (4-5%) from Q1 FY24 onwards (Page 7). - Rampur Indian Single Malt and Jaisalmer Indian Craft Gin volumes ramping up in both domestic and international markets, aiding growth (Page 10). - New brand launches planned in both white and brown spirits segments (Page 13). - Expectation of improvement in margins alongside volume growth due to premiumization, backward integration, and operating leverage kicking in FY24 onwards (Page 16). - Mid-teens EBITDA margin targeted as exit run-rate in Q4 FY24 (Page 16).
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- The company expects EBITDA margins to improve to mid-teens during FY24, achieving this gradually from Q1 with visible improvement in Q3 and Q4 FY24. - Long-term margin expansion is anticipated due to premiumization of the portfolio, recent price increases in IMFL and non-IMFL categories, and backward integration benefits. - Rampur dual feed and Sitapur greenfield projects will enhance operating leverage and gross margins. - Premium & Above (P&A) category volume growth is targeted at 15-18% in FY24, with overall IMFL business expected to grow top-line by 15-16%. - Regular category growth is projected at mid-single digits (4-5%) in FY24 after a prior decline. - Gross margin recovery expected from 41% towards prior levels (~48-49%), aided by price hikes and product mix improvements. - Higher volume contribution from luxury brands Rampur Indian Single Malt and Jaisalmer Indian Craft Gin will support revenue and profit growth. - Dividend payout ratio likely to improve as debt reduces post peak in FY24.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

The transcript provided from the Q4 FY2023 Earnings Call of Radico Khaitan does not contain specific information regarding the current or expected order book or pending orders. The discussion primarily focuses on: - Production capacity expansions at Sitapur and Rampur plants - Volume growth in Prestige & Above and popular IMFL categories - Financials including debt, capital expenditure, and margins - Market share and segment performance No explicit details on order book status or pending orders were mentioned in the transcript on page 17 or preceding pages. If you need more detailed insights on order book or sales pipeline, it might require direct communication with the company or accessing other investor reports.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- The company’s long-term debt contracted stands at INR 500 crores, with INR 320 crores availed as of March 31, 2023. - Peak debt expected to rise to approximately INR 800 crores by Q2/Q3 FY24 due to new plant commercialisation. - Post Q3 FY24, debt is expected to decline driven by free cash flow, with net debt likely to become positive by FY 2025-26. - No explicit mention of new fundraising through equity during the call. - The company is focusing on maintaining a strong financial position and comfortable liquidity. - Dividend payout ratios are expected to improve as debt reduces, indicating reliance on internal accruals rather than fresh equity. Summary: The company plans peak debt of INR 800 crores in the near term, with subsequent debt reduction; no new equity fundraising announced.