Rain Industries Ltd

Q3 FY23 Earnings Call Analysis

Chemicals & Petrochemicals

Full Stock Analysis
fundraise: Nocapex: Norevenue: Category 4margin: Category 3orderbook: No
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capex

Any current/future capex/capital investment/strategic investment?

- No major growth capital projects are currently in the pipeline; focus is on debt reduction over capex in the near term as per Board guidance. - Previous major growth projects faced various challenges: - Vertical Shaft Calcination Project affected by Indian petroleum coke import restrictions; potential government relaxation may enable higher capacity and meaningful earnings impact. - Hydrogenated Hydro-Carbon Resins plant faced start-up problems and market challenges; production stabilized in Q2 2023 with plans to build customer base and improve performance. - Management continues strategic partnerships and R&D in next-generation materials, especially synthetic graphite anode materials for Lithium-ion Batteries. - Planning to provide more details on R&D and strategic plans at an appropriate future time.
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revenue

Future growth expectations in sales/revenue/volumes?

- Volume growth has been stagnant or declining over the last 5-7 years due to import restrictions on GPC & CPC into India since October 2018, impacting carbon segment volumes. - Operating capacity in India is at ~45% due to these restrictions. - Divestment of Polymers business (2020) and closure of aromatic chemicals production (2022) also contributed to volume reduction. - Management hopes for relief on petroleum coke import restrictions in India, which could positively impact volumes in 2024. - Strategic partnerships and focus on lithium-ion battery materials aim to drive growth in advanced segments. - Focus on research and development of synthetic graphite anode materials for lithium-ion batteries. - No major new CAPEX projects planned; emphasis remains on debt reduction before pursuing growth capital projects. - Gradual margin improvement expected in advanced materials with normalization of energy prices. - Cement business expected to improve with seasonal demand post-monsoon.
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margin

Future growth expectations in earnings/operating earnings/profits/EPS?

- Management aims to re-establish margins partially in Q4 2023 after unique market downturn conditions. - Advanced Materials segment has returned to profitability, with margins expected to normalize by Q1 2024, noting seasonal volume fluctuations. - Expected improvement in Cement business performance in coming quarters due to lower coal prices and increased construction activity. - Potential relief on Indian petroleum coke import restrictions could enable higher utilization of Indian CPC plants, boosting volumes in 2024. - Focus on research and development to expand specialty products for lithium-ion battery anodes, indicating future growth avenues. - Management prioritizes debt reduction over major growth capital projects near-term to stabilize financials and investor confidence. - Stabilization and cost-optimization of US ACP plant production anticipated to enhance contributions; Indian ACP plant construction subject to approvals and regulatory outcomes. - Overall, modest earnings growth potential through operational efficiency, capacity utilization improvements, and new product developments.
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orderbook

Current/ Expected Orderbook/ Pending Orders?

- In Q3 2023, there were some delayed shipments impacting profitability. - The delayed third quarter volumes are expected to be delivered during the fourth quarter. - These delayed shipments are secondary factors; the main impact on earnings was due to inability to reset raw material costs. - However, delayed shipments in a retreating market tend to follow a similar pattern. - Overall, the company expects volumes to be normal for Q4 2023 based on seasonal demand. - Any slippage from Q3 will not add incremental volume to Q4. - No specific details on the total current or expected orderbook or pending orders volume were provided.
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fundraise

Any current/future new fundraising through debt or equity?

- No new major growth capital projects or fundraising through equity or debt are currently planned. - The management focus is on debt reduction rather than further capital expenditure or fundraising. - Recent refinancing involved repayment of $70 million and refinancing costs of about $20 million, with deferred finance costs amortized until 2028-2029. - Debt reduction target is to lower debt by 15-18% over the next 18 months, mainly through working capital release. - No plans currently exist for share buybacks; any such decision will require Board approval. - The company continues to evaluate long-term requirements and strategies for excess funds, considering tax, foreign exchange, and interest rates, but no immediate fundraising plans were disclosed.